D.C. collapse: what brought down the Nationals?

High expectations can be a dangerous thing.

Almost everyone expected the Washington Nationals to be really, really good this year. Many expected them to win the National League, and just as many picked them to win the World Series. They were a team that didn’t have many obvious weaknesses; instead, they added to their strengths, signing the top free agent starting pitcher on the market to boost an already impressive rotation. They steamrolled everyone in the regular season last year, and they looked like they were about to do it again.

Except… they haven’t. After suffering an embarrassing four game sweep this past weekend at the hands of the Giants, the Nationals unbelievably stand a game under .500, 4.5 games behind the Mets in the division, and a staggering 9.5 out in the Wild Card standings. How did this happen? How did a team that so many expected would go all the way collapse into a sub-.500 group by mid August?

There are a few culprits. The Nationals were far from a perfect team as illustrated by the problems they’re having:

The offense: Jayson Werth has been one of the worst players in baseball this year (.184/.261/.270) and yet the Nats keep trotting him out there every so often, hoping that something clicks. They’ve received next to nothing from Ryan Zimmerman and Ian Desmond, and though Desmond has picked it up lately he’s done nothing to show his problems are fixed. Denard Span and Anthony Rendon have missed a lot of time due to injury, and the only consistent contributors have been MVP candidate Bryce Harper and journeyman infielder Yunel Escobar. As a team, Washington is only hitting .247/.313/.391, putting them near the bottom of the league. Their lineup isn’t scaring anybody outside of Harper, and teams may start giving him the Barry Bonds treatment unless someone provides some lineup protection.

The Nationals weren’t an offensive juggernaut when the season started, but their lineup was dangerous enough where most might think they’d score enough to give their pitchers all they’d need to win. That hasn’t been the case. Speaking of…

The pitching: Max Scherzer has been as good as advertised, while Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez have been solid (Zimmermann more so). The rest of the rotation has been a mess: Doug Fister pitched his way out of a starting job and has been relegated to long man out of the bullpen, while Stephen Strasburg has battled injuries and inconsistency all year long. Strasburg has been especially troubling as his best weapon (the fastball) looks to have escaped him this year.

And it isn’t just the rotation that’s had problems this year. For August, the Nationals ‘pen has cumulative 6.11 ERA and has looked terrible. Jonathan Papelbon has given up two runs in five innings for the Nats; he gave up just seven runs in 39.2 innings with Philadelphia. Drew Storen has been an absolute mess lately, giving up ten runs in his last four appearances while watching his ERA balloon from 2.34 to 3.40 in the process. Maybe the addition of Papelbon really did mess with Storen’s head, and maybe losing the closer’s job broke him. Whatever the case, the Nationals aren’t going to win with him pitching this way. The rest of the bullpen hasn’t been much to write home about, either.

The manager: Matt Williams won manager of the year last year, somehow, some way, and this year has done little to prove he’s worthy of the award. Any questions about Williams’ in-game strategy should be answered by looking at his moves in the second game of last year’s NLDS against the Giants, when he removed Jordan Zimmermann after the pitcher had walked one batter with two outs in the ninth. Storen came in and blew the game, the Nationals lost an 18-inning marathon, and they never recovered. Williams is a sub-par game strategist and there’s been rumors of unrest in the clubhouse, too. It’s fair to say it’s not his fault that so many of his players are underachieving, but like the old saying goes, you can’t fire the players. A contending team removing a manager this close to the end of the season isn’t unprecidented – the Brewers did it to Ned Yost in September of 2008 – and maybe that could give the Nats players the spark they need to get back on track.

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So are the Nationals done? It’s much too early for that, even if things look bleak. They still have a lot of talent in their rotation, and if the offense can put it together even a little bit they should be able to keep pace with the Mets through September. It’s going to take quite a bit for that to happen, though. The Nationals are in deep trouble and could end up missing the postseason entirely.

No one expected that.