On July 12, the last day of games before players broke away for the 2015 All-Star Break, the Minnesota Twins’ record sat nine games above .500 at 49-40. They were 4.5 games behind the Kansas City Royals in the AL Central and were in possession of the first Wild Card spot. According to FanGraphs, the Twins had a 30% chance of making the postseason.
Now, almost exactly a month later, things are drastically different for Paul Molitor’s club. They are 11.5 games behind the Royals, 4.5 games out of the Wild Card play-in game and have a 4.5% chance of playing in October. In just under 30 days, the table has entirely flipped on the Twins.
But what exactly happened?
Well, the hard truth is that the Twins were never that good to begin with, and even with their hot start, the chances of them making the playoffs were small. Minnesota’s offense and pitching was always toward the bottom of the league, but because their bats performed exceedingly well in high leverage/clutch situations, they scored enough runs to hide their weaknesses.
Here’s a month-by-month breakdown of just how clutch the Twins were.
***The statistic “clutch” is measured by how well a team performs in high-leverage situations relative to how they perform in all other situations. If a team has an overall .300 wOBA and a .300 wOBA in high-leverage situations, the team is not considered clutch.
| Month | Clutch | MLB Rank |
|---|---|---|
| April | 0.84 | 6th |
| May | 2.32 | 1st |
| June | -1.33 | 24th |
| July | 0.57 | 8th |
| August | 0.49 | 9th |
And even though the Twins have been consistently clutch — minus the blip in June — throughout the year, their overall offense and pitching was/is nowhere near where it should be for a team with postseason dreams. They rank 24th in wOBA and 23rd in wRC+. On the pitching side, they are 25th in ERA and 28th in FIP.
Although the Twins have had a few rookies successfully break into the show this year, it’s the veterans that have been lackluster.
Since returning from his suspension, starting pitcher Ervin Santana has been anything but worth the loaded contract the Twins gave him this offseason. In seven starts, he has allowed eight home runs on his way to a 5.40 ERA and 5.52 FIP. Additionally, Joe Mauer has been relatively useless, Kurt Suzuki fell off a mountain from his career season in 2014 and Phil Hughes has been a below-average starter after posting a 5.8 WAR a year ago. If not for the fantastic production of players like Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe, the Twins would probably be more near the bottom of the AL Central.
The Minnesota Twins have a very bright future ahead of them, but 2015 won’t be a season in which we see them make the playoffs. Going forward, they’ll need to find consistent bats and a better rotation of arms. But with their farm system stacked with prospects, that task shouldn’t prove difficult.
