The Cleveland Indians were a popular pick to make the playoffs this season. Yours truly felt that Cleveland would coast to the AL Central title following an 85-win 2014. But things obviously haven’t gone according to plans. Through 113 games, the Tribe are 53-60, a whopping 14.5 games behind the Royals in the AL Central. Something went wrong with this team this season, and a deep dig into their performance only added to the intrigue.
Last season, Cleveland’s biggest weakness was clearly their defense. The Tribe was one of the worst defensive teams in baseball last season, ranking last in DRS (-75), last in UZR (.72.4), last in errors (116), last in fielding percentage (.981), 29th in UZR/150 (-12.3), and 29th in overall defensive value (-64.8). By any way you cut it, their defense was an abomination. This season, they’ve played *much* better with the gloves, and have the tenth-fewest errors in baseball, the 11th-best fielding percentage, and the tenth-best DRS, while also ranking 21st in UZR, 19th in UZR/150, and 21st in overall defensive value. Overall, they’ve gone from perhaps the worst defensive club in baseball to a club who rank in the middle of the pack at worst.
What about offensively? The Indians’ offense was 14th in baseball last season with 142 homers, tied for ninth with 104 steals, 14th with a .136 ISO, 10th in wOBA at .313, and 10th in wRC+ at 101. This season, they’ve performed worse, but still rank similarly. They’ve homered just 92 times, 24th in baseball, and stolen 58 bases, the 16th-highest total. But their .134 ISO is virtually identical to a year ago, though just the 23rd best mark in the league, their .311 wOBA ranks 14th in the league, and their 99 wRC+ is 9th. Overall, the team is also walking more, striking out less, and getting base on a higher clip.
CLEVELAND, OH – AUGUST 9: Starting pitcher Corey Kluber #28 of the Cleveland Indians pitches during the second inning against the Minnesota Twins at Progressive Field on August 9, 2015 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
The pitching staff has to be worse, right? Well, sort of. Overall, the Indians’ staff has a 3.84 ERA this year compared to a 3.57 mark a year ago. But the underlying peripherals are similar – the Tribe’s FIP this year is 3.59 and their xFIP is 3.43. Last year, their FIP was 3.42 and their xFIP was 3.36 – those differences aren’t nearly dramatic. The Indians have also struck out a higher percentage of hitters and walked a lower percentage of hitters this year. The rise in strikeout percentage and drop in walk percentage hold strong for both the bullpen and the rotation.
The elephant in the room is home runs. Cleveland has allowed 116 homers this year, the 13th-most in the league. A year ago, they allowed 135, which was the 18th most in the league. That ugly spike in homers, combined with a decreased groundball rate and a higher percentage of fly balls going over the fence, has nullified the improvements the pitching staff has made in their strikeout and walk rates.
There’s no one to really “blame” for these struggles either – sometimes, these things just happen. Ace Corey Kluber has been dominant once again, but his ERA is a full run higher this year thanks to a drop in ground ball rate and a strand rate that has fallen to south of 70%. Carlos Carrasco’s ERA has also jumped by more than a full run despite a higher strikeout rate and a lower walk rate, thanks him him allowing twice as many homers this season as he did last season. Both Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer have been about as good as they were last season. However, the fifth starter spot *has* been a mess this year – Cody Anderson, TJ House, Bruce Chen, and Shaun Marcum have combined to make 20 starts, and have cumulatively posted a 6.57 ERA in just 97 1/3 innings.
CLEVELAND, OH – AUGUST 13: Carlos Santana #41 of the Cleveland Indians dives into third base on a single by Yan Gomes #4 (not pictured) against the New York Yankees during the third inning of their game on August 13, 2015 at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. The Yankees defeated the Indians 8-6. (Photo by David Maxwell/Getty Images)
Pinning Cleveland’s struggles on one player isn’t really fair. Jason Kipnis has played much better than he did a year ago. Michael Brantley has been worse, but is still hitting .312/.388/.461. Carlos Santana’s production has fallen off for the second year in a row, but he is still getting on base at a .357 clip. Yan Gomes has had a much less productive, much less healthy season. Brandon Moss wasn’t an upgrade at all in right. Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher remained sunk costs.
But while Indians fans are writing off 2015 here in mid-August, the team at least has hope for the future. Despite having only $46 million committed to payroll next season, the team only has five free agents – injured starter Gavin Floyd, utilityman Mike Aviles, ineffective veteran starter Shaun Marcum, bench bat Jerry Sands, and reliever Ryan Webb, while fourth outfielder Ryan Raburn has a $100,000 buyout on a paltry $3 million club option for 2016. All of their core players return, and the only players in line for significant arbitration raises are relievers Bryan Shaw and Cody Allen.
With plenty of high-upside outfielders available as free agents this winter, Cleveland could immediately become contenders again by signing just one of them. This team isn’t in need of an overhaul, despite how disappointing their 2015 has been. Sometimes, no matter how much a team may improve in some areas, lady luck just isn’t on your site. That’s been the case for the 2015 Indians.
