The Orioles’ playoff potential is strong

Last year the Orioles won the AL East division with 96 wins. They continued their success by sweeping the Tigers in the AL Division Series. Things were looking great. Then they got swept in four games by the Royals in the AL Championship Series. It was still a successful season all things considered and expectations where high going into the offseason. And in the offseason the Orioles did…pretty much nothing.

Well, they signed Delmon Young and traded for Travis Snider. Both moves worked out predictably poorly and neither player is even on the team anymore. Despite their lack of moves, the Orioles did stay in the mix for most of the early part of the season. At different times this year they led their division, but on July 2nd they found themselves in a tie with the New York Yankees.

Fast-forward to July 28th. The Orioles are still just in second place in the AL East. But that translates to seven games back of the division leading Yankees. They are only two games back in the Wild Card race though. Three days later, the Orioles would trade for Junior Lake and Gerardo Parra to improve their terrible outfield situation (excluding the always excellent Adam Jones).

Fast-forward to now. As of writing this the Orioles are still a ways off of first place. The Yankees have a five game lead on the Orioles and the Blue Jays are also ahead of them by four games. But the second Wild Card spot eludes them by just half a game. So did the Orioles do enough to not just keep them in the postseason conversation but get them there?

I like to take a broader look at teams when I first try to analyze their talent level. As a team, the Orioles’ offense is 7th in baseball with a 101 wRC+. Their combined pitching staff ranks 13th with a 3.72 ERA, 4.04 FIP, and 11.0 fWAR. That’s not a bad combination. But when you start to break down their pitching staff something interesting happens.

Their rotation only ranks 20th in baseball with 4.28 ERA, 4.30 FIP, and 6.4 fWAR. That’s not so hot. But then we look at their bullpen, which ranks 2nd (!) in baseball with a 2.68 ERA, 3.29 FIP, and 4.6 fWAR. This looks like the new trend in baseball.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Yankees and Royals both share similar pitching profiles. Their rotations rank 12th and 26th respectively. Yet both teams lead their divisions. In part it’s because their bullpens rank 1st and 3rd respectively. Bullpens in baseball are more important now than ever before.

It seemed strange at the trade deadline that the Orioles bolstered their outfield defense and offense instead of their rotation which was their only truly massive weak spot. But if they couldn’t cheaply and significantly upgrade the rotation it was probably smarter to short up other holes.

And it’s really just about scoring more runs than you allow anyway. It’s sounds patronizing to say that, but we can often get too focused on improving a weak spot (starting pitching in this case) instead of just improving the runs scored vs runs allowed balance any way possible.

And make no mistake the Orioles absolutely improved that balance. Gerardo Parra was an excellent addition. He provides excellent corner outfield defense and adequate defense in center field. The defensive numbers don’t reflect that this year. But they can be a bit wonky sometimes and it’s best to look at a few seasons of data and averaging it out.

He’s also had a break out season offensively. On the season, he’s hitting .321/.363/.515 (138 wRC+). In 74 plate appearances so far with the Orioles, he’s continued his tear hitting .290/.338/.507 (130 wRC+). This production puts Parra just behind Manny Machado and Chris Davis among regular players and just ahead of Adam Jones. That’s a big bat to add even if public perception hasn’t caught up with Parra’s production.

So now the Orioles have four regulars with a wRC+ above 120: Machado (144), Davis (141), Parra (137), Jones (122). Jonathan Schoop (134 wRC+) would be in that group too with more playing time. Matt Wieters (106) gives them another above average offensive contributor.

It’s a small sample size, but in August, the Orioles are 8th in baseball with a 112 wRC+. This could be a sign of real improvement. This could be a result of facing inferior competition. This could random luck. But if it is a sign of real improvement then Orioles fans should be very excited.

Even with a weak rotation, if the Orioles can pair and elite bullpen with a top 10 offense, they have a very real chance at not only getting to the postseason but performing strongly. It won’t be easy though. As of this writing the Orioles are half a game back of the second Wild Card and there are three more teams that are within three games. That being said I’m a lot more encouraged about the Orioles chances than those other teams.

Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs