The New York Mets took the National League by storm this year, riding their impressive rotation and an offense rebuilt at the trade deadline to a division title. And so far this October, they’ve dispatched the favored Dodgers and the sentimental favorite Cubs with varying degrees of ease. They are firing on all cylinders at the right time.
But now, the Mets face a tougher task: a team that matches up well with them, and one that seems built to counter everything the Mets do well. The Royals bring a patient, dangerous offense to the table backed by the mindset of a team that’s been fueled by the disappointment of last year’s Game 7 for almost 12 months now. They’ll give the Mets their biggest challenge so far this October.
So what does the path to victory look like for the Amazins? Here are five keys to bringing the World Series back to Queens for the first time in almost 30 years.
Figure out the Royals lineup
The Mets are fresh off the total destruction of the Cubs and their powerful lineup, holding Chicago to a cumulative line of .164/.225/.297 in the NLCS and rendering their dangerous hitters to mere afterthoughts. The Royals present a different challenge, though. Built like a traditional National League team, Kansas City isn’t reliant on the long ball to win; rather, they’re a team that makes contact, uses the gaps, and has tremendous speed to burn. They’d rather beat a team with a million paper cuts rather than bludgeon them to death.
The Royals will look to run when they can, and they’ll put pressure on a shaky Mets defense with their speed and contact skills. New York will have to figure out how to counteract the Royals’ strengths early, otherwise they’re in danger of being run off the field. A whole lot of strikeouts would do the trick, and luckily for the Mets they have a pitching staff capable of getting them.
CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 21: Daniel Murphy #28 of the New York Mets celebrates with David Wright #5 after hitting a two run home run in the eighth inning against Fernando Rodney #57 of the Chicago Cubs during game four of the 2015 MLB National League Championship Series at Wrigley Field on October 21, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
2015 World Series
Murphy was out of his mind in the NLDS and NLCS and has looked like 2002 Barry Bonds combined with 2004 Carlos Beltran in these playoffs. It seems obvious that the Royals will try to avoid letting him beat them (although it wasn’t obvious to the Cubs, apparently), which means the rest of the Mets lineup will have to pick him up. That might be tough, considering the state of Yoenis Cespedes’ shoulder and the limitations the injury may place on him. Crazy as it sounds, the Royals would likely rather take their chances with Cespedes rather than face Murphy in a big spot even if Cespedes was fully healthy; now, the injured shoulder gives Kansas City even more reason to go after him.
But the Mets have options: they could move Lucas Duda, who hit .400 in the NLCS, to the cleanup spot while moving Cespedes down. Or they could install Juan Uribe and his history of huge postseason hits into the lineup behind Murphy, too. The Mets will likely need to make a move here, since Murphy’s hot streak puts him squarely on the Royals’ avoid list and Cespedes’ shoulder has him at less than his best. The Royals are too smart to let Murphy beat them (probably), and the Mets will have to plan for that.
KANSAS CITY, MO – OCTOBER 26: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets looks on during the Mets workout the day before Game 1 of the 2015 World Series between the Kansas City Royals and Mets at Kauffman Stadium on October 26, 2015 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Exploit their pitching advantage
The Mets have arguably the best rotation in baseball from top to bottom and they’re showing that in these playoffs. The Royals, meanwhile, don’t have nearly the same quality in their rotation and the Mets offense needs to take advantage of that. Edinson Volquez and his 6.56 career postseason ERA gets Game 1, while Johnny Cueto and his 6.93 postseason ERA gets game 2. Yordano Ventura has been up and down this October and is seemingly always on the verge of a meltdown, while Chris Young falls into the category of “wow, I can’t believe that guy is still pitching.”
It’s not a rotation that should strike fear into any team, and the Mets have to exploit that. They need to get to Kansas City’s starters early, get their own starters an early lead, and put the pressure on the Royals from the jump. This is the one area where the Mets have the clear advantage in the series and they have to squeeze everything from it that they can.
CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 21: Lucas Duda #21 of the New York Mets hits a three run home run in the first inning against Jason Hammel #39 of the Chicago Cubs during game four of the 2015 MLB National League Championship Series at Wrigley Field on October 21, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
Steal a game on the road and take advantage of NL rules
It’s not essential, but taking one of the two games in Kansas City would go a long way in helping the Mets to a World Series championship. One the series moves to New York, the Royals lose one of their best hitters: Kendrys Morales. Morales, the team’s leading RBI man, will have no place to play without the DH and the Royals’ lineup will be significantly weaker. And with the Mets already having the clear pitching advantage, losing one of their most dangerous hitters will be a big blow to the Royals.
They’re obviously good enough to overcome the loss, but it’s something that shouldn’t be discounted. The middle of KC’s order gets weaker, while the Mets and their collection of power arms gains a huge break. If the Mets can get at least one of the first two on the road, it’s not crazy to think they can end things by Game 5.
CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 21: Jeurys Familia #27 of the New York Mets celebrates after defeating the Chicago Cubs in game four of the 2015 MLB National League Championship Series at Wrigley Field on October 21, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. The Mets defeated the Cubs with a score of 8 to 3 to sweep the Championship Series. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images)
Embrace the moment
Young players are almost always faced with “is the moment too big for them” questions in their first postseason, and that’s been the case for the Mets and their young starting pitchers. But they’ve shown no signs of being overwhelmed so far this October, and it’d be a shock if they started now. The Mets are similar to the 2010 Giants team that surprised most of baseball and won it all: they have four impressive young starting pitchers, three of whom could be considered great, backed by a veteran offense that scores enough for them to win.
It’s really no surprise that the Mets are following that same formula, and their young stars have shown no fear. Now on the biggest stage of their lives, they can’t shrink away from the bright lights or play scared. If they can do that – and they’ve proven they’re entirely capable of doing it this October – while playing up to their potential, the Mets have a great shot at winning the World Series for the first time in almost 30 years.
