Keys for the Royals to win the World Series

The Royals haven’t cruised through the American League playoffs like they did last year, when they didn’t lose a game on the way to the World Series. But they’re back in the Fall Classic for the second consecutive season, having been locked in throughout the year on the championship that eluded them last October.

This is a somewhat different Kansas City team than the one that battled the Giants to seven games in 2014. The starting pitching may not be as good, but a more powerful lineup makes up for that. No, the Royals don’t have to face Madison Bumgarner this time around, but the Mets present a stronger overall starting rotation in opposition.

What is the Royals’ path to victory in this year’s World Series? What does this team need to do to get the trophy that just escaped its reach a year ago? Here are five keys to winning Kansas City’s first championship in 30 years.

Keep Making Contact
This is what the Royals do, so it’s certainly not asking too much of them. The Mets’ starting pitching has been dominant in the postseason, but has taken advantage of some big-swinging lineups that like to hit the long ball. That’s not how Kansas City wins. Royals hitters make contact and put the ball in play, something the Mets didn’t deal with much against the Dodgers and Cubs.

Not only does putting the ball in play potentially extend innings, but it also gets runners on base and allows the Royals to implement their running game. That’s a big part of their arsenal that wasn’t used much in the ALCS versus the Blue Jays, but could become a significant factor against the Mets. Travis d’Arnaud isn’t great at throwing out opposing basestealers, nabbing 33 percent (14-of-43) of them during the regular season.

Additionally, not striking out could expose the Mets’ weaker infield defense. Daniel Murphy and Wilmer Flores combined for -17 Defensive Runs Saved during the regular season. Obviously, that’s not as much of an issue when the Mets’ rotation is constantly striking opposing hitters out. But between forcing those middle infielders to make plays and pressing the issue with aggressive baserunning, the Royals can seriously disrupt the formula the Mets have used to win games during the postseason.

Get to the Mets’ Bullpen
The Mets’ excellent starting pitching has taken some of the guesswork out of the equation for manager Terry Collins. The performance of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey has allowed Collins to essentially go from the starting pitcher right to closer Jeurys Familia, who’s been able to pitch more than one inning throughout the postseason. That’s prevented the Mets from having to use a relatively weak middle relief corps that Collins clearly doesn’t trust right now.

Granted, all of the sample sizes are small during the postseason, but Tyler Clippard’s 5.79 ERA with six hits allowed in 4.2 innings is terrifying for the Mets. Addison Reed has only pitched 3.1 innings, but his performance in Game 2 of the NLDS — in which he allowed one run and two hits in one-third of an inning — is likely a reason for that. Bartolo Colon has pitched relatively well in long relief when necessary, but having to use him in back-to-back games is surely playing with fire. He’s a nice option for Collins to have, but one that ideally doesn’t get used very often.

If any of these guys, along with Jon Niese, makes an appearance during the World Series, things probably aren’t going well for the Mets.

Don’t Let Daniel Murphy Beat Them
This might be the most obvious key of the World Series. But since the Cubs didn’t seem to get the idea during the NLCS, it has to be mentioned here. Murphy has been the story of the postseason, batting .421 with a 1.026 slugging percentage and seven home runs. He’s hit a home run in six consecutive playoff games and seven during this postseason, one away from the record held by Barry Bonds, Nelson Cruz and Carlos Beltran.

It’s easy to say that the Cubs kept giving Murphy pitches where he could hit them out of the park, typically low and inside. But he’s hitting pitches everywhere in the strike zone. So the Royals might just be better off not giving him anything to hit, especially when there are runners on base. (Keeping leadoff hitter Curtis Granderson off base could be another key.)

As crazy as it would have sounded going into the postseason, Kansas City should pitch around Murphy and see if Yoenis Cespedes (.756 OPS in the postseason) can beat them. Cespedes left Game 4 of the NLCS with a sore shoulder and it’s not yet clear how that will affect his swing. The Royals should take their chances with that early on, seeing if Cespedes can be a threat in this series.

Know When to Pull ‘Em
Ideally, the Royals will get six innings out of their starting pitchers, allowing manager Ned Yost to turn the game over to his outstanding bullpen. But Yost has also shown a deft touch with taking his starter out before he can get into trouble, taking advantage of his relievers’ ability to throw multiple innings.

Kansas City’s clinching victory in Game 6 of the ALCS was a good example of that, with Yost getting Yordano Ventura out of the game when the Blue Jays mounted a threat and bringing in Kelvin Herrera, who went on to pitch 1.2 innings. In Game 4, Yost employed a similar strategy, pulling Chris Young in the fifth inning before he could face Josh Donaldson for a third time.

However, there is some risk in Yost taking out his starters early, as the Royals’ middle relief looks shaky. Ryan Madson, in particular, has been problematic with an 8.44 postseason ERA and 10 hits allowed in 5.1 innings. But Danny Duffy and Franklin Morales haven’t been very reliable either.

You know the formula if you’ve watched the Royals during the past two seasons: If Yost can use his best three relievers — in this case, Luke Hochevar, Herrera and Wade Davis, with Kris Medlen mixed in — at the end of a ballgame, the Royals have an excellent chance of winning.

Take Advantage of Home Field
Thanks to the American League winning the All-Star Game, the Royals have home field advantage in the World Series. And that may be even more important now than it was a year ago. Kendrys Morales was Kansas City’s best power hitter during the regular season, with 22 home runs, 106 RBI and a .485 slugging percentage. He’s continued that production in the postseason, hitting four homers and slugging .561.

That’s a significant bat to take out of the lineup and the middle of the order when the World Series moves to Citi Field for Games 3 and 4 (and 5, if necessary), putting the Royals at a disadvantage. And it’s not like Yost has any way of getting him in the lineup. Morales isn’t going to play first base with Eric Hosmer there, and even if putting him in the outfield was an option (which it most certainly isn’t), he hasn’t played out there since 2008. He might provide a potent pinch-hitting weapon, one who can hit from both sides of the plate effectively, but it’s certainly not the same as having him in the game for four at-bats a game.