The Kansas City Royals clinched their second straight AL pennant on Saturday night after defeating the Toronto Blue Jays 4-3 in Game 6 of the ALCS. The Royals came up one win short of a World Championship last year, and will look to claim their first title since 1985 against the Mets in this year’s World Series. But whether or not Kansas City ends up winning the championship, this is a franchise looking at some major, unavoidable changes this offseason.
Kansas City went all-in at the 2015 trade deadline, as GM Dayton Moore acquired Johnny Cueto from the Reds and Ben Zobrist from the Athletics. Those moves have put the Royals in a good position for success this month, but they’re also short-term solutions. Both Cueto and Zobrist are free agents this offseasons, and both will be in line for massive paydays – especially now that draft pick compensation will no longer be tied to either player.
2015 World Series
The club also has what appear to be easy decisions to make on a pair of mutual options for Jeremy Guthrie and Alex Rios. Guthrie is coming off of a disastrous season in which he pitched to a 5.95 ERA in 148 1/3 innings, so the Royals will probably end up taking the hit on a $3.2 million buying rather than paying Guthrie $10 million and moving on. As for Rios, his buyout is only $1.5 million on a $12.5 million mutual option for 2016, and he also struggled immensely this season to the tune of a .255/.287/.353 line with just four homers and nine steals. And while he did improve in the second half, he’ll be 35 in February and missed time with back issues.
So even without blinking, Kansas City will be down two starting outfielders, a starting infielder, and two starting pitchers going into free agency. Relievers Ryan Madson and Franklin Morales are both free agents as well, as is Chris Young, who threw 123 1/3 innings between the bullpen and the rotation last year. Between Cueto, Guthrie, Young, and the already departed Joe Blanton, that’s 59 starts being lost from this season, a bulk of which will be picked up by Danny Duffy and Kris Medlen (who both spent time in the bullpen in addition to the rotation). The Royals will also be without starter Jason Vargas for much of the year while he recovers from Tommy John surgery, making him an $8.5 million sunk cost in 2016.
And then, there are the arbitration raises and no brainer club options that will be exercised. Including the buyouts on Guthrie and Rios, the Royals have roughly $64.5 million dedicated to their 2016 payroll, well under the $112 million their payroll was on Opening Day this season. Closer Wade Davis has an $8 million option the team will surely be exercised, and ALCS MVP Alcides Escobar’s option is priced at $5.25 million. Now you’re up to $77.75 million. The key players getting arb raises are Lorenzo Cain, Duffy, and Mike Moustakas, and MLBTR projects the trio at $15.8 million. That leaves the Royals with around $20 million to play with this offseason assuming their payroll doesn’t increase, they don’t work out extensions with those three key arbitration eligible players, and that Gordon, Guthrie, and Rios all depart as expected.
It seems like a decent bit of money, but it’s not a lot of wiggle room considering that they’ve added no one throughout this process, and the team still has holes to fill. They’ll need another starter or two to slot in behind Yordano Ventura and Edinson Volquez. They’ll need two more outfielders, assuming Jarrod Dyson isn’t given an every day role. They’ll need to strengthen their bullpen in front of Davis and Kelvin Herrera thanks to Greg Holland’s Tommy John and the likely departures of Madson and Morales.
Some of these positions can be filled internally. 22-year old fireballer Miguel Almonte struggled in 2015 as a reliever and starter in AA, AAA, and the majors, and may not be ready yet – after all, this is the first year of his career that he pitched above high-A. Kyle Zimmer can’t be counted on until he throws a full season in the minors. Most of the team’s other good prospects still have holes in their games or are far too low in the minors to contribute next season.
But hell, the Royals went through this last season too and survived OK. They replaced Nori Aoki with Rios. James Shields left, and they replaced him with Volquez. Long-time DH Billy Butler sought greener pastures, and Kendrys Morales was brought in to replace him. However, the challenge is different this time around – replacing two outfielders, two starters, and a couple of good to great relievers is a lot different than replacing one outfielder, one starter, and one DH. Could Kansas City look at outfielders like Gerardo Parra, Colby Rasmus, or Chris Young in free agency? Would starters like Doug Fister or Ian Kennedy be possibilities?
Whatever ends up happening with the Royals over the next week won’t impact what they do this offseason – because the decisions to be made this winter will be difficult, no matter what.
