The National League Championship Series starts tonight, pitting two equally excellent teams who haven’t won the big one in a long, long time against one another. The Mets and the Cubs both come into this series after emotional wins in the first round: the Cubs vanquished their longtime rival the Cardinals, while the upstart Mets upset the $300 million Dodgers. Both are riding high, both are playing their best, and both are motivated to erase their demons from the past and take the next step. It promises to be one heck of an NLCS.
Here are five questions to keep in mind before settling down for the first game today:
Will the Cubs offense pound the Mets into submission?
Against the Cardinals the Cubs’ bats were relentless, scoring 20 runs over the last three games while slugging 10 home runs in the process. They have a lineup full of young, fearless hitters who are all capable of taking any pitch deep in any count. They won’t be afraid of the Mets’ pitchers after demolishing the team with the best record in baseball and will come out swinging. Will it be enough to outlast the Mets? New York has a dangerous offense in their own right, but if the games become a slug fest there’s no way they can keep up with the Cubs. It’s going to be a heck of a challenge for the Mets to keep the Cubs in the ballpark and keep them from scoring 4 or more runs per game. Everyone talks about the Blue Jays lineup, but Chicago is just as dangerous. If they’re firing on all cylinders, the Cubs hitters have the ability to make this a short series.
LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 10: Noah Syndergaard #34 of the New York Mets reacts after recording the final out of the second inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in game two of the National League Division Series at Dodger Stadium on October 10, 2015 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
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Harvey, Syndergaard, deGrom, Matz. Four names that should strike fear into the fearless, including the powerful Cubs. The Mets boast the best pitching staff left in the playoffs and all of their starters are either equal or better than what the Cubs can produce, aside from maybe Jake Arrieta (and even that’s close). If any staff can shut down this offense, it might be this one. Four young, hard-throwing starters that are equally as fearless as the Cubs’ hitters. There’s a cliché about the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object that everyone’s heard before. Clichés are usually lazy, until you actually see something that’s perfectly described by one. This might be one of those times. The Mets’ pitchers already dispatched of the high-priced Dodgers, and now they have another seemingly more powerful foe in front of them. It’ll be fascinating to see if they dominate in this round, too.
CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 12: Jake Arrieta #49 of the Chicago Cubs throws a pitch in the second inning against the St. Louis Cardinals during game three of the National League Division Series at Wrigley Field on October 12, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
Will Jake Arrieta once again take the form of the destroyer?
Arrieta has taken two forms so far in these playoffs: the untouchable destroyer of worlds who shut out the Pirates and made them look silly in the Wild Card game, and the guy who used to pitch in Baltimore after the Cardinals made him look human and touched him up in the NLDS. Which one will show up in the NLCS? He gave up 4 runs in 5.2 innings against the Cards, who also tallied a homer against him. He was bailed out by his offense in that game, but it’s not like he was completely awful, either: Arrieta still managed to strike out 9 in the game, so his stuff was there. He’s also facing a lineup that isn’t as strong as St. Louis’ on paper, so that could work in his favor as well. If Arrieta is anything like the pitcher he was in the regular season and the Wild Card game, the Mets might be in trouble. He’s capable of channeling Madison Bumgarner and taking over the entire series. If he’s the Arrieta who showed up in the NLDS, it’ll be the Cubs searching for answers instead.
NEW YORK, NY – OCTOBER 12: Jeurys Familia #27 of the New York Mets throws a pitch in the ninth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers during game three of the National League Division Series at Citi Field on October 12, 2015 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
Which bullpen will make the biggest difference?
The Mets bullpen was up and down in the NLDS. They got a series full of great performances from Jeurys Familia, who was literally unhittable. But getting the ball to him may prove difficult: neither Tyler Clippard or Addison Reed were particularly impressive, and those are the two best options the Mets have in the later innings. It’ll be interesting to see how the Mets use Bartolo Colon, especially if their starters end up going just five innings or so. The veteran may end up being the most important part of the New York relief corps, as both a long man and a setup man.
The Cubs don’t have nearly as many issues, and in fact seem to have the stronger bullpen of the two. Joe Maddon will use his ‘pen at any time and seems to have faith in every one of his relievers, from guys like Trevor Cahill and Fernando Rodney to his more established relievers like Pedro Strop and Hector Rondon. And the Cubs have relievers who can soak up innings (Cahill, Clayton Richard) which means Maddon won’t hesitate to remove a starter early if he feels he needs to. The slight edge in bullpens goes to the Cubs, and that could make a huge difference in the series.
CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 13: Fans react to a play in the eighth inning while watching Game Four of the National League Divisional Series between the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals at the Cubby Bear at the Cubby Bear on October 13, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images)
Which fanbase will finally get to celebrate?
The Mets haven’t won a World Series since the Reagan administration. The Cubs haven’t been to a World Series since the days of World War 2, and they haven’t won one since before World War 1. To say the fans of both franchises have been waiting for a while would be an understatement. Both cities are going to go crazy when they host the games, and the atmosphere should be unmatched. It’s good for baseball to have two once downtrodden franchises from two major markets firing on all cylinders at the same time. TV ratings will be high, interest from casual fans will be even higher, and merchandise sales will likely go through the roof. Baseball is already celebrating, but which of these cities will get to celebrate when their team finally gets back to the World Series? Both of them deserve it. Both of them are great teams. And either of them would represent the National League well. Baseball couldn’t have written a better script or setup for this series if it tried.
