Daniel Murphy is doing his best Bryce Harper impression for the Mets in the playoffs. He has always been a reliable player at second and third base. But he’s playing at another level when the Mets need him the most. That’s endearing him to a lot of people and rightfully so. But the idea that he’s suddenly an entirely different player is premature and ignores the nature of small sample sizes.
Perhaps Daniel Murphy’s biggest accomplishment this postseason–certainly his most visible–are the home runs he’s hit. He has launched five balls over the fence in just seven games. That’s pretty incredible, but it is just seven games. It’s also just 29 plate appearances.
In those plate appearances he’s hit .357/.379/.929. Let’s pause a moment to let that slugging percentage sink in—Impressive! In the recorded history of baseball Barry Bonds owns the highest single season slugging percentage. Back in 2001, he hit his way to an .863 slugging percentage. In Murphy’s own seven-year career, his highest full season slugging percentage was .449. That does come from this season but this all goes to show that Murphy’s Postseason production is in no way realistically maintainable.
In fact most ways you look at it Murphy’s postseason performance is very much a small sample size illusion:
| Season | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ |
| 2008 | 151 | 11.9 | 18.5 | .313 | .397 | .473 | 133 |
| 2009 | 556 | 6.8 | 12.4 | .266 | .313 | .427 | 94 |
| 2011 | 423 | 5.7 | 9.9 | .320 | .362 | .448 | 126 |
| 2012 | 612 | 5.9 | 13.4 | .291 | .332 | .403 | 103 |
| 2013 | 697 | 4.6 | 13.6 | .286 | .319 | .415 | 107 |
| 2014 | 642 | 6.1 | 13.4 | .289 | .332 | .403 | 110 |
| 2015 | 538 | 5.8 | 7.1 | .281 | .322 | .449 | 110 |
| Career | 3619 | 6.0 | 12.2 | .288 | .331 | .424 | 109 |
| Postseason | 29 | 3.4 | 14.2 | .357 | .379 | .929 | 257 |
LCS Coverage
Looking at his career numbers he’s a quality starter especially when those starts are coming at second base. But he’s average to slightly above average at best. That’s not a slight. Average is really hard to do. This is Major League Baseball. There are fewer than 30 full time starters at each 8 positions. So if you can claim to be worthy of full time play then you’re pretty good.
But that’s all Daniel Murphy has proven to be: A competent second/third baseman. Judging by fWAR over the last three seasons Murphy ranks 13th among second baseman. His 8.1 fWAR would put him 14th among qualified third basemen over the last three years.
If you’re a team in need of a second or third baseman, then Daniel Murphy is certainly a reasonable option. He provides some extra value in his utility. He is a competent fielder at both positions. Flexibility like that can make him an option for a number of teams. And in an offseason when there aren’t a lot of great free agent options Murphy does stand out. All of this works in his favor more so than his Postseason explosion. It doesn’t hurt but it also shouldn’t change contract, salary, or performance expectations. Remember we’re talking about 29 Postseason plate appearances versus 3,619 regular season plate appearances.
Whichever team does sign him shouldn’t and probably won’t expect him to be a superstar. His career to date doesn’t support that. But he should still get something in the range of 3-4 years and $10-12 million annual average value. That’s more in line with a 2-2.5 fWAR caliber player.
Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs
