For the Royals, their D makes the difference

The Kansas City Royals continue to surprise people as they have for the past two seasons. No one thought they would win the Wild Card in 2014 or then make it to the World Series. No one thought they would return to the playoffs this year despite being the top AL team the year before and once they did, many thought they would quickly lose to the Astros and then the Blue Jays. Instead, they have consistently won against the predictions of the national media.

One reason for these low expectations is that the Royals aren’t the best at either hitting (seventh in the MLB in runs scored) or pitching (10th in MLB in ERA). Dividing the pitching staff up, their starting rotation came in 22nd in ERA and the offense was just the 11th-best in slugging percentage. Taking the most basic of glances, there is a reason many don’t consider the Royals to be the best in the American League despite their record.

The one aspect the Royals have dominated against the rest of the league, however, is defense. According to FanGraphs, they saved almost twice as many runs over league average than the second-best team, the Giants, and 33 more than the next best AL team. For a quick comparison, during the regular season, they saved 64 more runs than their first-round opponents, the Houston Astros, and 47 more than the Blue Jays.

Royals	OPS	AL Rank	ERA	AL Rank	Def	AL Rank
2012	.716	8th	4.30	10th	-3.6	8th
2013	.694	12th	3.45	1st	87.6	1st
2014	.690	10th	3.51	4th	74.8	1st
2015	.734	7th	3.73	3rd	56.9	1st

The Royals’ improved defense was undoubtedly the biggest change between the 72-win 2012 Royals and the 86+ win teams during the next three years. While they have largely stayed towards the bottom of the league in offense and near the top in pitching, Kansas City has flipped from a below-league average defense in 2012 to the best in the league each of the past three seasons.

Even if you don’t believe in FanGraphs’ evaluation of how much great defense equals a run saved, the fact that the Royals were more than twice as good as the second-best AL team means a lot. Defense has always been an extremely underrated facet of the game, with almost all the credit/blame for the outcome of an at-bat given to the pitcher. Fortunately, we don’t have to be quite as ignorant as we were in the past, thanks to stats that attempt to separate the defense from the pitching staff, like FIP.

Fielding Independent Pitching essentially tries to predict a pitcher’s ERA by using only outcomes he is completely in control of, like home runs, strikeouts and walks. While the stat isn’t perfect, it is normalized for the season and the league FIP always equals the league ERA. A good defense is the best way to post a better ERA than FIP, and the Royals were the masters of this during 2015. Only the Cardinals had a bigger difference between their ERA and FIP, as the Royals defense essentially saved 0.3 runs per nine innings, according to FIP, and 0.51 according to xFIP. Better than fielding percentage or range factor, or any number of old fashioned defensive metrics, this shows how big of an impact the Royals defense makes.

Individually, the top defender was Lorenzo Cain, who had 16.3 runs saved above average in center field and anyone who has seen him rob double after double knows this is an accurate, if not low, representation. Alcides Escobar is second with 13.9 at shortstop and Salvador Perez is third at 12.2. These three players were each in the top 16 in all of baseball and the only other team with two was the Blue Jays, with Kevin Pillar and Russell Martin. While both teams do have significant offense, it shouldn’t be surprising that the two teams with the most great defenders in MLB are the two left vying for the AL pennant.

The clip above is an older one, but it shows the difference Cain makes. By simply covering more ground, he turns a double into an out and it isn’t even close. Most center fielders don’t come near that ball and a poor outfielder could easily play it into a triple.

The Royals made the most of their defense by using only eight players for more than 350 innings at any position. Of those eight, only first baseman Eric Hosmer had a significant negative impact on the field while six others saved more than two runs over average during the regular season.

In the postseason, that solid defense has continued. So far, the Royals have committed just a single error in eight games for a .996 fielding percentage, all the best among remaining teams. In fact, the only playoff team to not commit an error this postseason was the Yankees, who played just a single game. Salvador Perez has continued to be the top catcher in the league, holding runners to just two steals on three attempts and not allowing a single passed ball on more than 1,100 pitches. Escobar has also excelled, as seen below, turning one of the Royals’ five double plays this postseason, most among remaining teams.

By not allowing free baserunners, the Royals have avoided giving up free runs. Combined, the Rangers, Cardinals, Mets, Astros and Blue Jays have already allowed 17 unearned runs this postseason, but the Royals have been able to succeed by not allowing any. Their starting rotation has a postseason-worst ERA of 5.85 (among the teams which passed the Wild Card game) and yet, they won the ALDS and currently have a 2-1 lead in the ALCS. Yes, Kansas City also has a tremendous bullpen and a relentless offensive attack, but the one thing keeping them in games more than anything else is the most underrated aspect of their game: the defense.