Cubs have work to do to make NLCS a competitive series

The Chicago Cubs are in trouble. Down 2-0 in the NLCS to a Mets team that suddenly looks unbeatable and having seen their two best starting pitchers battered, the Cubs are returning home to their friendly confines at just the right time. It’s a must-win game for them tonight, and playing in their own park in front of a sure-to-be insane crowd might be just what they need to make this a series.

Simply playing at Wrigley Field isn’t going to be enough, though. The Cubs have a number of tasks to accomplish if they hope to avoid going down 3-0 in the series after tonight. Let’s take a look at a few of them:

Dingers. Lots of dingers: There’s no getting around it: The Cubs live and die with the home run. This isn’t a club that starts a rally by stringing together a bunch of singles or putting runners in motion. This is a team that hit 171 home runs in the regular season and advanced to the NLCS in large part because of all the home runs they battered the Cardinals with in the first round. If the Cubs don’t hit home runs, they don’t win, as evidenced by the one solitary homer they managed to hit in the first two games against the Mets. Getting into warmer weather in Chicago will help, as will the wind if it’s blowing out of Wrigley. A big home run (or a few of them) will get the crowd into the game and get the Cubs back on track. They need to reclaim their offensive identity before it’s too late. Of course, that means…

Solving Jacob deGrom: deGrom is probably the one pitcher that a club reliant on homers for offense doesn’t want to see on the mound. He posted a 0.8 HR/9 rate this year, the best on the Mets’ staff. And deGrom is coming off of an NLDS where he would’ve won the series MVP if the award existed. He stymied the Dodgers in two starts, allowing just two runs in 13 innings while winning both games. He also hasn’t given up a home run since Sept. 9. It’s going to be a monumental task for the Cubs to figure out deGrom, and it could be an even bigger task to take him deep and get their offense going. But if there’s one thing the Cubs can hold onto, it’s that they’re facing the same kind of pitcher for the third straight start: a right-hander with a power arm. Perhaps that will be enough for them to change their game plan and knock deGrom out early.

Stay away from Daniel Murphy: Murphy has turned into Babe Ruth this series, hitting .429/.500/1.286 with two homers in two games. He’s killed the Cubs, and at this point it’s fair to wonder if the Cubs should pitch around him and make sure he gets nothing to hit. It almost makes sense to take their chances with Yoenis Cespedes rather than let Murphy continue to beat them. Sometimes, a player gets out-of-his-mind hot and there’s no real explanation for how or why. That’s what’s happening with Murphy right now, and the Cubs should avoid him if they can.

Hold runners on: The Cubs are terrible at keeping baserunners at bay and gave up the second-most stolen bases in the game this season. It came back to bite them in game 2 when Curtis Granderson stole two bases in the third inning and ended up scoring on an infield single. It’s a huge weakness of both Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta, and the Mets exploited it to their advantage. The Cubs have to do a better job of keeping the Mets from taking extra bases, whether by throwing over more often or implementing pitchouts from time to time. They just cannot allow the Mets any more free bases in this series.

Home cooking: Wrigley Field hasn’t seen an NLCS game since 2003. The Cubs haven’t been to the World Series since WW2, and haven’t won a World Series since before WW1. To say Chicago fans are hungry for a championship is an understatement. It will be an insane atmosphere tonight, and Cubs fans will do everything in their power to rattle the Mets and push their team over the top. Plus, the warmer weather should favor the Cubs’ hitters, who will also look to take advantage of the wind. Wrigley still offers one of the best home-field advantages in all of pro sports, from the weather conditions to the rabid fans. The Cubs will need every bit of it in Game 3 if they hope to get back into the series.

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