Baseball’s third season starts tomorrow, when free agency opens up and players are allowed to negotiate with whatever team they please. This year should be one of the most memorable in a long time, with a number of big-name, big-ticket players hitting the open market. There are some true difference-makers out there for the taking this winter.
Let’s take a look at the top 30 free agents who’ll be available starting tomorrow:
1. David Price
Did another sub-par postseason bring down Price’s, er, price? Teams are probably hoping so, but chances are Price might cross the $200 million mark this winter. And with good reason: he’s the best pitcher on the market and just had a dominant year, one that might win him the Cy Young award. Teams with deep pockets and shaky rotations will be falling over themselves to sign Price, postseason record be damned.
2. Zack Greinke
Another Cy Young candidate, Greinke is neck-and-neck with Price for the top spot on this list but comes in second mainly because he’s a little older. But Greinke seems like the kind of pitcher who’ll adjust as he gets older and change his style, like Greg Maddux did once before. He’ll likely get the second biggest contract for a pitcher this winter.
3. Jason Heyward
Heyward will be just 26 in 2016, and it’s a safe bet some team is going to come over the top with a huge deal banking on him finally realizing the superstar potential he’s had since entering the league. It’s not like Heyward is a bad player – he’s good at the plate, and his defense is off the charts – but whatever team gives him a gigantic contract will probably be expecting an uptick in offensive numbers, too. He’s immensely talented and still young, though, which will have teams fighting over him.
4. Jordan Zimmermann
He’s coming off of a down year by his standards, but Zimmermann represents the next best thing for teams that miss out on Price and Greinke and should come at a much lower price. Constantly overshadowed by other pitchers on his team, Zimmermann has been one of the most reliable arms in the National League for some time now and would help any rotation. Teams may be wary of his downturn in stats last year, but he’s still a high-end starter.
5. Johnny Cueto
Cueto was up there with Price and Greinke for a while before a disastrous run in Kansas City. But he went out on a high note, dominating the Mets in the World Series and looking like the ace the Royals thought they were getting back in July. He’s probably better suited for the NL, and there will be questions about the health of his arm. Still, he’s likely to get a nice contract as a fallback option for teams who miss on their big targets.
NEW YORK, NY – OCTOBER 31: Alex Gordon #4 of the Kansas City Royals celebrates after defeating the New York Mets by a score of 5-3 to win Game Four of the 2015 World Series at Citi Field on October 31, 2015 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
6. Alex Gordon
Is he the best defensive left fielder of all time? Gordon certainly has an argument, and teams will line up to add his glove to their defense. His bat isn’t bad either, and with teams likely looking to copy the Royals’ blueprint of contact-heavy lineups Gordon should find himself in high demand. It’d be a shock to see him anywhere other than Kansas City, but a team might come along and blow him away with an offer.
7. Yoenis Cespedes
He probably would’ve ranked higher if this list was made before the World Series, where Cespedes didn’t look anything like the world beater he’d been for the four months prior. Plus there’s the lingering question of why a player of his caliber has been on four teams in the past two years. Still, Cespedes offers big power and good corner outfield defense, and there are plenty of teams who could use that.
8. Ben Zobrist
His defense may be slipping a bit with age, but Zobrist still offers positional flexibility combined with a dangerous bat. That makes him appealing to just about every team in baseball, which means his market should be robust. It pays to be a Swiss army knife.
9. Justin Upton
He’ll never be the superstar some expected him to be, but Upton is still a very good player who could help a lot of teams. He’s young and offers a dangerous middle of the order presence, which will be enough for a lot of clubs to throw money at him. He may not be a franchise player, but he doesn’t have to be. Upton is best served as a complimentary piece with the potential to become something special. He’ll have no shortage of suitors.
10. Chris Davis
He’s hit 159 homers over the past four years. That alone will get him a monster contract somewhere north of $100 million, in all likelihood. But Davis isn’t far removed from a year where he hit .196 with a .704 OPS, so there’s some risk involved with him. Teams put a premium on power these days though, which means someone will overlook the warning signs and give him a gigantic deal to hit dingers.
SAN FRANCISCO, CA – SEPTEMBER 30: Mike Leake #13 of the San Francisco Giants pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the first inning at AT&T Park on September 30, 2015 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
11. Mike Leake
What to make of Mike Leake? He’ll only be 28 next year, which gives him an age advantage over the other pitchers on this list. He’s probably the best of the second tier of starters and teams probably think he’ll blossom away from a pitchers’ park. But is he worth the $80 or $90 million he’ll likely command on the open market? Is he good enough to be a #2 starter? Some team will pay up and find out.
12. John Lackey
He just posted the lowest ERA of his career, so he still has something left in the tank even coming up on age 37. He’ll be in line for a short term deal, which makes him perfect for a contending team in need of a rotation boost. And he’s had tremendous success in the postseason, which is something most of the starting pitchers on this list can’t say. A great fit for NL contenders.
13. Scott Kazmir
He wasn’t very good after the Astros traded for him in July, he hasn’t thrown 200 innings since 2007, and he’s definitely not the guy to lead a rotation. But Kazmir could provide nice value to a team looking to round out its pitching staff, especially teams that miss out on the big pitching prizes this winter.
14. Hisashi Iwakuma
Like Kazmir, Iwakuma is a guy who’ll bring value to a pitching staff and can help strengthen the middle of a rotation. He’s not a top of the rotation guy and he likely isn’t going to reach 200 innings, but he’s a solid starter who can keep his team in games and give them a chance to win. Someone will pay for those skills.
15. Jeff Samardzija
He looks like an ace and throws hard like an ace, but Samardzija is decidely not an ace. His nightmare season in Chicago further cemented the notion that he’s one of the most overrated pitchers in baseball, but some team will still pay big for his tantalizing stuff in hopes that he’ll finally take the next step. He’ll be 31 next year, though, and chances are this is the real Samardzija: a flawed pitcher who can get by on electric stuff if everything breaks his way. He can still help a rotation so long as he isn’t the centerpiece of it.
LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 10: Howie Kendrick #47 of the Los Angeles Dodgers singles in the third inning while taking on the New York Mets in game two of the National League Division Series at Dodger Stadium on October 10, 2015 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
16. Howie Kendrick
Kendrick had a typical Kendrick year, hitting around .290, slugging around .400, hitting a handful of homers and playing solid defense. He’s about as automatic as you can get stats-wise, and some team with a hole in its middle infield will pay up to get his bat in its lineup. Solid but unspectacular, Kendrick offers the best value for teams in need of a second baseman.
17. Ian Desmond
Even coming off of a down year, Desmond figures to find a robust market for his services considering there aren’t a lot of shortstops out there capable of hitting 20-plus homers. He might be a candidate to sign a one-year, make-good deal to reestablish his value going into 2017; or, some team might believe that his down year was a fluke and give him a nice contract.
18. Yovani Gallardo
Gallardo is an underrated starter who’s capable of making any rotation better. He’s not a centerpiece but a complimentary one, and a very good one at that. He’s posted respectable numbers pitching in hitters’ parks throughout his career and usually keeps his team in games. That’s a valuable asset, and teams that need pitching but aren’t willing to target the biggest names should have him in their sights.
19. Daniel Murphy
He was the greatest player to ever play the game for a stretch this October; then, he made a few errors and stopped hitting. It was a good reminder of what Murphy is: a streaky hitter with some pop who can be a butcher in the field. He’s still one of the better hitting second baseman in the NL though, so he’ll have no trouble landing a contract. It just won’t be a huge one.
20. Matt Wieters
The second coming of Johnny Bench never quite panned out. But Wieters is still a switch-hitting catcher with some pop, which means teams will be willing to risk his poor health (101 games played over the last two years) and questionable defense in order to get him in their lineup. He’s a solid catcher who can hit when he’s healthy, and those are in short supply.
KANSAS CITY, MO – OCTOBER 09: Colby Rasmus #28 of the Houston Astros hits a solo home run in the third inning against Johnny Cueto #47 of the Kansas City Royals during game two of the American League Division Series at Kauffman Stadium on October 9, 2015 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
21. Colby Rasmus
Rasmus is the perfect kind of hitter to sign to a short contract: a guy with a ton of power, capable of getting hot and carrying your offense for a stretch of time, who’s just as capable of going cold for a month. Unfortunately he’ll probably want a long term deal after the year he had in Houston, and some team will likely give it to him in hopes he finds some consistency.
22. Wei-Yin Chen
Another guy who fits the mold of solid pitcher who can help round out a rotation and make it better. He’s nothing special, but Chen has been quietly effective the past two years and could help a number of teams. He may be overlooked early on in free agency, but whatever team signs him will likely end up being glad they did.
23. Marco Estrada
He had an excellent year in Toronto, there’s no denying that. But Estrada is going to be 32 and never had a year close to the one he had in 2015. Whatever team signs him will be taking a big risk in hoping he’s a late bloomer and not a one-year wonder. But there’s no denying he looked like a legitimate starter this year, for what it’s worth.
24. Darren O’Day
The only reliever on this list, O’Day has strung together four great years and just finished off his best yet. He should find himself getting the largest contract of any reliever this year, and while he might not match Andrew Miller’s deal from last year some team will make him very rich. It’ll be interesting to see if any team offers him the closer role, too.
25. Mike Napoli
He looked great after landing with Texas midseason, and he still has enough pop to hit 20 homers with regular playing time. With power at a premium, there will be teams willing to give Napoli a shot to prove his bounce back was no fluke. He’s probably best served as a DH, but he’s also a good defensive first baseman so his market may not be limited to just the American League.
PITTSBURGH, PA – SEPTEMBER 28: J.A. Happ #32 of the Pittsburgh Pirates pitches in the first inning against the St Louis Cardinals during the game at PNC Park on September 28, 2015 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)
26. J.A. Happ
Happ was a dynamo in Pittsburgh, somehow posting a 1.85 ERA and helping to push the Pirates to the Wild Card game. Was it a fluke? Hard to say, but the smart money wouldn’t be on a guy with a career ERA of 4.13 repeating that kind of success. But maybe Happ is another late bloomer who’s finally figured it out. Which team risks a multi-year deal to find out the answer?
27. Marlon Byrd
Remember the thing about power being at a premium? Well Byrd has passed the 20 home run mark in three straight seasons now while also playing decent enough defense, even at an advanced baseball age of 38. Cheap power is never a bad investment, and Byrd offers that in spades. Plus, he’ll likely take a one year deal which should make him even more attractive to teams in need of a bat.
28. Asdrubal Cabrera
Nothing special, but Cabrera is a good shortstop who can hit a little bit. There are a bunch of teams out there who could use a good shortstop who can hit a little bit. He’ll likely be affordable and a good bargain wherever he ends up.
29. Denard Span
A very good defensive center fielder who hits for average and can run. Span should find a robust market once the dust settles on all of the big name free agent outfielders and will likely provide value for whatever he ends up getting. An underrated player.
30. Dexter Fowler
He’s not the best defensive center fielder in the world, but Fowler is a good hitter with some pop that can play in the right ballpark. Like Span, he should see his market take off once all of the big names are off the board.
