It took until early February, and it came at a lower cost than he initially anticipated, but James Shields finally has a long-term home, as he signed a four-year deal with the San Diego Padres worth at least $75 million. The 33-year-old California native will remain near his hometown, while also becoming the latest addition to a Padres team that has experienced a complete overhaul throughout the offseason.
When the offseason started, Shields was one of the three top starters available on the free agent market next to Jon Lester and Max Scherzer. Lester came off the board rather quickly, with Scherzer not signing until last month. Few actually anticipated Shields lasting into February, with pitchers and catchers set to report in less than two weeks. There are those that questioned whether Shields would be the correct route to go, but there’s no denying what he can bring to a team, especially one like the Padres.
Shields is coming off of yet another solid year, in what has been an extremely consistent career. He pitched to a 3.21 ERA and a 3.59 FIP, with those figures sitting at 3.49 and 3.35 for his career, respectively. His performance featured a K/9 rate of 7.14, and a 1.74 BB/9, the latter of which represented his best figure since 2008. He transitions to a ballpark that has long been considered a pitcher’s paradise, while joining a rotation that already features Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, and Ian Kennedy.
While that’s an extremely formidable top four, there are a couple different things to note about the Padres, even with the addition of such a notable player like Shields. For one, Shields isn’t playing with the same type of outfield defense that he had behind him in Kansas City. That group that featured Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain was superb. He transitions to a Padres team that features any combination of Matt Kemp, who had a UZR worst than -22 last season, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers, both of which are average to slightly-below-average. He had a 45 percent groundball rate last year, but the year before he was down at 41 percent. It’ll be interesting to see how that ultimately affects the output for him in his first year in San Diego.
From an individual perspective, there isn’t any reason to think that Shields will regress. Yes, he’s 33 and has a ton of mileage on that arm, but he’s also been a perfectly healthy individual throughout his career. He could turn out to be the most reliable starter in the Friars’ rotation this season. He’ll be fine, even with the downgrade in the defensive group behind him.
How does this impact the Padres as a group, though? Does this represent any sort of shift in their postseason chances that wasn’t there before the Shields signing? Not necessarily.
The biggest issue with the Padres certainly isn’t their pitching. If they were to get into the postseason, yes having a top four like they have would be absolute dynamite. That’s assuming the group stays healthy. But even with the overhauled outfield group of Upton, Myers, and Kemp, along with Derek Norris’ bat now behind the plate, there are still plenty of questions facing this team from an offensive perspective. Even with Norris (2.3), the Padres’ projected WAR for their starting infield (as listed on the team’s official site) includes Yonder Alonso (1.7), Jedd Gyorko (2.0), Alexi Amarista (0.6), and Will Middlebrooks (0.5). That’s…not good. This group will have to massively outperform expectations to be the contender that many think they could be.
Is the James Shields signing a good one for the Pads? Absolutely. He brings a veteran mentality, durability, and consistency to a rotation that needs a little bit of some, and a lot a bit of others. This staff, when you factor in the bullpen, should be a strong one once again. However, as nice as the team in the field may look on paper (in terms of name recognition), the Shields signing doesn’t change much for their chances. Even if he and the rest of the staff do their jobs, the offense is going to have to do much more than what is expected of them in order to turn around their recent fortunes in attempting to reach the postseason.
