No team made more noise this past offseason than the San Diego Padres, engaging in seemingly endless roster turnover in hopes of putting a contending team on the field. It was either going to be a spectacular success or a spectacular failure; either way, it’d be spectacular.
Things haven’t gone exactly as general manager A.J. Preller planned. The Padres are putrid on offense, average in the rotation, and have an excellent bullpen that doesn’t get very many leads to protect. Barring a sustained run coupled with the implosion of a few teams in front of them in the standings, it doesn’t look like they’re going to make the playoffs this year.
So the Padres find themselves at an important crossroads: should they stay the course and try to finish what they started in the offseason, and hope the team gels late and makes a late playoff push? Or should they blow the whole thing up, trade whatever pieces they can, and try to reload for the future?
Let’s take a look at some of the pros and cons of blowing up the Padres roster:
SAN DIEGO, CA – JUNE 27: Justin Upton #10 of the San Diego Padres hits a two-run home run during the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park June 27, 2015 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
Pro: They can get a ransom for their best players
If the Padres decide they’re open for business, they’d immediately have the market’s best closer in Craig Kimbrel and outfielder in Justin Upton. Kimbrel could be a more palatable option than Jonathan Papelbon for teams looking for late-inning help and would likely command at least a few top prospects in return. Upton would be a rental, but could command a price like Kimbrel’s. Teams in desperate need of outfield help would line up for the chance to add a player of his caliber for the stretch run.
They could also move James Shields, who could help solidify a contender’s rotation, or Tyson Ross, another solid starter with a few more years of team control. They could also get useful players for veterans like Joaquin Benoit, Andrew Cashner, Clint Barmes, and Will Venable; basically, they can get a huge haul of useful pieces back if they decide to hang a fire sale sign on the door. The grand experiment of the offseason didn’t work, but the Padres can set themselves up nicely for the future if they embrace their failure and try to benefit from it.
SAN DIEGO, CA – APRIL 9: General view as fans line-up to get into Petco Park before the home opener between the San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants April 9, 2015 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
Con: It sends a pretty horrible message to the fan base
What are you supposed to think if you’re a Padres fan? Your team makes all of these huge moves over the winter with the promise of being a contender, but they still lag behind the Dodgers and the Giants in their own division. They seem to be turning the corner from being an also-ran in trades and free agency, then completely change course at the first sign of trouble and start another rebuild.
Why would you have any compelling reason to care about them anymore? Why would you buy another player’s jersey in the future when guys with years left on their contracts are being sent packing? It’s eerily reminiscent of what happened to the Marlins a few years ago, when they made all of those big splashes in free agency and then got rid of them all a year later. Even if a rebuild is for the best, it doesn’t always play well with the fan base – especially when that fan base was expecting a playoff appearance.
SAN DIEGO, CA – MAY 28: Ian Kennedy #22 of the San Diego Padres looks to the outfield after giving up a two-run home run to Starling Marte of the Pittsburgh Pirates during the third inning of a baseball game at Petco Park May 28, 2015 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
Pro: They’re just not very good
For all of the pieces they collected over the winter, the Padres still aren’t very good nor are they that much better than they were last year. The offense has been terrible, and their defense has been even worse. They fired Bud Black and have somehow been even worse since then. Their infield needs a complete makeover, they need a center fielder, and they don’t have a true leadoff hitter.
Moving their most desirable players could go a long way in addressing some of their glaring weaknesses, and it’s not like Preller and the front office would be breaking up the ’27 Yankees. The Padres are still a deeply flawed team with a thinned out farm system. It’s time to pull the plug on the experiment and try something new.
PHOENIX, AZ – JUNE 20: Tyson Ross #38 of the San Diego Padres and teammate Austin Hedges #18 celebrate a 8-1 win against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on June 20, 2015 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
Con: There’s still talent there
A total fire sale isn’t necessary, since the Padres do have talented pieces. They just need to fill in some areas around them to field a playoff-caliber team, so rather than let everyone go they ought to try and reload. Moving Upton might be a good idea since he’s a free agent, but there’s no reason to move Kimbrel, Shields, Ross, or any of their other valuable pieces when they could provide the core of a contending team next year. No fire sale, but a few reasonable, level-headed deals with an eye towards the next few seasons. That would satisfy the fans, and it wouldn’t turn the Padres into a laughingstock yet again.
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Which road will the Padres take? A fire sale isn’t out of the question, but it doesn’t seem like the answer, either. They’d be wise to focus on next season, since catching the Giants, Dodgers, and the teams ahead of them in the Wild Card seems awfully tough. But they also don’t have to completely blow up a team that has the talent to compete with a few additions.
The best move might be to trade a few pieces and hang on to their more valuable players, unless they get completely blown away by an offer. They can do two things that way: admit they had a flawed team this year and their winter of big moves didn’t pan out, and also assure their fans they’re not giving up but rather retooling and reloading. Win-win.
