It hasn’t exactly been quiet, but the Miami Marlins have managed to upgrade their roster substantially towards contending in 2015. In a National League East that is expected to be run by the Washington Nationals in the upcoming season, the Marlins seem to be the team that has the best chance of standing in their way in doing so. A primary reason that they find themselves in such a prime position heading into the upcoming campaign doesn’t even have anything to do with their multitude of offseason additions, but the strong outfield that was already in place.
The Marlins ended last year with an outfield group that ranked fifth in the league in total fWAR, at 13.6. The only teams that had a higher figure were Kansas City (fourth), Tampa Bay in third, Pittsburgh at no. 2, and Baltimore in the top spot. One would expect that Baltimore’s figure will disintegrate given what has transpired for them this winter, while Tampa Bay will also take a step back as well. Given the offensive prowess that this group is capable of, the Marlins could absolutely be in the mix to take over the top spot in 2015.
The starting trio in South Beach figures to be Christian Yelich, who continues to develop impressively as a former top prospect, Marcell Ozuna in center, and Giancarlo Stanton and his enormous contract out in rightfield. Considering the offensive upside of the three, as well as what they bring to the table defensively, this trio has the potential to be the best group in baseball.
Yelich is a particularly intriguing case on his own. He’s expected to develop more power as he goes along, coming off of a season in which he hit only nine home runs. He’s projected 14 by Steamer in 2015, in addition to a .137 ISO, which would represent a significant bump from his .119 figure last year. A well-rounded offensive presence, he’s also projected 20 swipes for the year. His ability to get on base, in addition to his increasing ability to hit for extra bases, could have him as a major breakout candidate this season.
Then there’s Ozuna. Somewhat quietly, Ozuna has developed into a very reliable outfielder for Miami. He hit 23 home runs last year and is projected for 22 in the upcoming year. While he isn’t quite as adept at getting on base as the likes of Yelich and Stanton, his .186 ISO leaves him well above the league average in hitting for extra bases.
Everyone is aware of what Giancarlo Stanton is capable of at this point. He should continue to mash this season, after going for his highest contact rate since 2010. Steamer has him hitting the 40 homer mark again, while reaching base at a terrific .380 clip. His game is no mystery at this point, as he’s the cornerstone of this franchise.
The combination of the three is projected for a 14.1 WAR in 2015, an upgrade of 0.5 from last season. Stanton is responsible for 6.1 of that, with Ozuna projected at 3.7, and a 4.3 for Yelich. Of course, projects are to be taken with a grain of salt. Nonetheless, their projected fWAR does indicate the continued improvement of each of the three. The trio of Yelich, Ozuna, and Stanton will make their money due to what they can do at the plate, but they’re also improving defensively.
Yelich, for example, went for a UZR of 9.9 last year and 10 Defensive Runs Saved. Ozuna has the ability to handle center well and posted 11 DRS last year. While Stanton is known primarily for his bat, he was solid in the field last year after a rough go in 2013, with a 1.6 UZR and seven DRS. While nobody is going to mistake them for the Kansas City Royals in the field, if they can be average or even slightly above average, that will more than do the job for the Marlins.
While there are a number of factors to consider, it really comes down to the offensive upside of Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and, of course, Giancarlo Stanton. What these three can accomplish at the plate, as well as their improving game in the field that probably should not be overlooked, is just a part of what has the Marlins’ stock pointing way up for the upcoming season. But what a large part it is.
