The upstart New York Mets (90-72) travel to the west coast to face the Los Angeles Dodgers (92-70) in an NLDS that promises a few truly great pitching matchups along the way. The Dodgers are the prohibitive favorite, but no one should count out a Mets team that defied expectations all year. It has all the makings of a tight, hard-fought series.
Here are five questions to keep in mind as the series starts tonight:
Will Clayton Kershaw exorcise his October demons?
Kershaw is one of the best left-handed starters the game has ever seen, no question. And while some will cry, “small sample size!” it’s a fact that he hasn’t been the same pitcher once the postseason rolls around. In his playoff career, he’s 1-5 with a 5.12 ERA in 11 games. His postseason numbers are worse than his regular season career numbers across the board: a 1.235 WHIP compared to 1.033, 3.2 BB/9 compared to 2.6, 7.9 H/9 to 6.7, etc. Why hasn’t Kershaw been the same monster come October that he’s been in every other month? Impossible to say. But coming off of a season where he struck out 301 batters and looked at the top of his game, the Dodgers and everyone else will expect him to dominate the Mets and help push his team to the next round. Postseason struggles have a tendency to haunt great players as their careers go by, with the familiar refrain of “yeah he was great in the regular season, but…” finding its way into every conversation. Can Kershaw permanently remove that cloud from his legacy starting with this NLDS?
CINCINNATI, OH – SEPTEMBER 24: Yoenis Cespedes #52 of the New York Mets singles to drive in a run against the Cincinnati Reds in the seventh inning at Great American Ball Park on September 24, 2015 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
Will Yoenis Cespedes make himself baseball’s highest paid free agent outfielder?
Cespedes had a career year at the right time, with his free agency about to hit this winter. He faces a crowded field of hitters in the race to get the biggest contract, with the likes of Jason Heyward and Justin Upton in his way. But if Cespedes has a huge series against the Dodgers and helps the Mets pull off an upset victory, his price is likely to skyrocket even higher. There’s nothing quite like a big postseason to get a gigantic contract – just ask Carlos Beltran after 2004. And Cespedes already has playoff success under his belt with a career .350/.395/.525 line over 10 games. If he can keep that up under the bright lights of New York (and Los Angeles), he’ll position himself as the most desirable free agent bat on the market and a contract that could exceed $100 million. Oh, and the Mets might win some playoff games, too.
NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 15: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets reacts after Justin Bour #48 of the Miami Marlins scored in the fourth inning on September 15, 2015 at Citi Field in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Are the young Mets pitchers out of gas?
Matt Harvey and his elbow dominated the headlines in September and there’s uncertainty as to how deep into a game he’ll be allowed to go, since he hasn’t pitched seven or more innings since early August. Jacob deGrom went through a rough patch in August and September before skipping a start and looking strong in his last two appearances, but those last two appearances went for just a combined ten innings. Noah Syndergaard has already thrown the most innings in his professional career. All three are supremely talented and rival any pitching staff in baseball, but all three seem to be suffering from fatigue in one way or another and it’s fair to question if they’ve hit a collective wall. The Mets will need to keep these games close and would love for their starters to match Kershaw and Zack Greinke zero for zero. It remains to be seen whether or not they have the stamina left to do it.
LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 03: Pitcher Kenley Jansen #74 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches in the ninth inning against the San Diego Padres at Dodger Stadium on October 3, 2015 in Los Angeles, California. The Dodgers defeated the Padres 2-1. (Photo by Victor Decolongon/Getty Images)
Who has the bullpen advantage?
The Dodgers have an elite closer in Kenley Jansen but getting to him may prove to be a bit tricky. There’s no go-to setup man or 7th inning guy, but that problem can be avoided with deep runs by Kershaw and Greinke. If one of them falters though, or if an injury occurs, the Dodgers may find themselves in trouble. As for the Mets, their closer has some of the best stuff in the game. But Jeurys Familia is young and has no playoff experience, and it’s hard to predict how he’ll react to the pressure. New York also lacks a left-hander in their bullpen they could use to pitch to Corey Seager or Adrian Gonzalez. Neither team’s bullpen is particularly impressive, which is why they’ll be counting on their starters to go deep into games. Considering the fatigue that’s plagued the Mets’ rotation, this may prove to be a bigger problem for them.
NEW YORK, NY – OCTOBER 04: David Wright #5 of the New York Mets salutes the fans after the game against the Washington Nationals on October 4, 2015 at Citi Field in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City.The New York Mets defeated the Washington Nationals 1-0. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Do the Mets stand a chance?
It’s easy to predict the Dodgers will roll in this series, since they have two of the best starting pitchers in the game going back-to-back coupled with home field advantage. But New York is no slouch and their pitching staff is arguably deeper than the Dodgers’ from top to bottom. If they can steal one game in Los Angeles and beat one of the big two, they’ll have an excellent chance of taking the series once it gets back to New York. But if Kershaw pitches like he’s capable of and Greinke continues to dominate, the Mets will have a tough time advancing to the NLCS.
