It doesn’t seem fair that the teams with baseball’s second and third-best records are playing in a sudden death elimination game, but those are the breaks. The Chicago Cubs (97-65) travel to Pittsburgh to play the Pirates (98-64) to win the right to move on to the NLDS in St. Louis. Unlike the AL game that saw two sputtering teams see which one could be less worse than the other, this is a game that features two absolute juggernauts going toe-to-toe. It boasts one of the best pitching matchups anyone could hope to see and two offenses that can hang with anyone in either league. It’s a shame one of them has to go after just one game.
Here are five questions to keep in mind when you sit down to watch tonight:
Will anyone get a hit?
With no hyperbole, this should be one of the best pitching matchups in postseason history. Gerrit Cole would be a Cy Young frontrunner in almost any other year, and Jake Arrieta was historically great all year and especially in the second half. In four starts against the Cubs this year, Cole was 2-1 with a 2.13 ERA and 32 Ks in 25.1 innings. In his five starts against Pittsburgh, Arrieta dominated to the tune of a 3-1 record and a 0.75 ERA while striking out 33 in 36 innings. The Wild Card game will be the first time the two have faced off this year, and a low-scoring (or, no-scoring) game wouldn’t surprise anyone. If there’s one stat that might be predictive of anything, it’s this: Cole’s ERA was actually higher this season at home than on the road (2.83), while Arrieta’s ERA was actually better on the road than at home (1.60). Still, this should be a tight, low-scoring game.
CHICAGO, IL – APRIL 08: Chris Coghlan #8 of the Chicago Cubs runs after a bunt against the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field on April 8, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. The Cubs defeated the Cardinals 2-0. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
Small ball, anyone?
With two dominant aces on the mound, it might just take one run to advance to the NLDS. That means both teams might be more apt to bunt runners over if the situation presents itself, though the Pirates are probably more open to it than the Cubs. Pittsburgh was third in the majors with 63 sacrifice hits this year, while Chicago finished near the bottom with 32. But in an elimination game, things might change. Playing for one run could be the smartest thing to do, considering the guys on the mound. And with Arrieta on the mound, the Cubs might decide that bunting a runner into scoring position might be worth giving up the out. A 1-0 lead with Arrieta might as well be 10-0 with the way he’s pitching.
CHICAGO, IL – SEPTEMBER 26: Addison Russell #22 of the Chicago Cubs mishandles the ball after forcing out Pedro Alvarez #24 (not pictured) of the Pittsburgh Pirates at second base during the sixth inning at Wrigley Field on September 26, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images)
Can the Cubs overcome their inexperience?
The Cubs are probably a year ahead of schedule, but their young players have been firing on all cylinders and pushed them to the third-best record in baseball. But the playoffs, especially an elimination game, are a different animal. Players can press, they can get tight, and they can falter in the big moments. The Cubs are going into a hostile environment in front of a home crowd that remembers how they were able to rattle Johnny Cueto in the Wild Card game two years ago. They’re going to be loud and do their best to do the same the young visitors. But like the Astros proved last night, inexperience doesn’t always matter. And with the calming presence of Joe Maddon leading them, the Cubs don’t seem to be the kind of team that will falter easily. But it’s going to be a challenge to overcome the insane Pirates crowd and take control of the game.
LOS ANGELES, CA – SEPTEMBER 19: Mark Melancon #35 of the Pittsburgh Pirates celebrates defeating the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-2 at Dodger Stadium on September 19, 2015 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images)
Will the bullpens make a difference?
A low-scoring game late would be no surprise, but what if something unexpected happens – say, one of the starters is pinch hit for in a crucial spot – and the teams need to go to their bullpens? Which team has the advantage? The Pirates definitely do, as they posted the lowest bullpen ERA in baseball and also led both leagues in reliever wins. The Cubs bullpen wasn’t that much worse – they ranked 8th in the majors in ERA – but the Pirates definitely have an advantage here. If they can somehow get Arrieta out of the game by upping his pitch count, they have to like their chances against the Chicago bullpen. And if the Cubs force Cole out early, they may have a tougher time scoring runs against the Pirates relief corps.
PITTSBURGH, PA – SEPTEM BER 10: Andrew McCutchen #22 of the Pittsburgh Pirates reacts in the sixth inning after striking out during the game against the Milwaukee Brewers at PNC Park on September 10, 2015 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
Will the best player take over?
With all due respect to everyone else on either roster, Andrew McCutchen is the best player in the Wild Card game. He also happens to be the only Pirate with any kind of career success against Arrieta, putting up a .348/.444/.435 line while only two of his teammates have career averages over .200 against the Cubs ace. So as McCutchen goes, so go the Pirates. If he sets the tone early and touches up Arrieta, it could inspire the kind of confidence that’s contagious in a team at this time of year. He’s a perennial MVP candidate for a reason, and the Pirates need him to show it tonight. If he has a quiet game, expect the Cubs to be packing their bags for St. Louis by the end of the night.
