The Houston Astros (86-76) and the New York Yankees (87-75) meet tonight in the American League Wild Card game to determine who’ll go on to face the Kansas City Royals in the ALDS. It’s a battle of two teams that have had their ups and downs this year: both of them were in first place in their respective divisions for a good length of time, and both of them faltered and were passed up by other teams. But all of that goes out the window tonight. It’s one game, winner-take-all, between the upstart Astros and the old guard Yankees. It should be a fun game to watch.
Here are five questions that will be answered once the dust settles tonight:
Does anyone want to win this game?
Both of these teams could have distanced themselves from the rest of the American League field down the stretch, and both of them fell flat on their faces. The Astros were 5.5 games up in the AL West on August 26 before losing 17 of their next 26 and needed help in the form of an Angels loss on the last day of the season just to clinch their spot in this game. The Yankees led the East as late as August 24 before being boat raced by the Blue Jays, losing 16 of their last 26 and needing an Astros loss on the last day of the year to clinch home field. The Yankees haven’t had a winning month since July, and the Astros went 11-16 in September. This isn’t exactly the NL Wild Card game where two juggernaut teams are on a collision course with one another. Rather, these are two flawed teams that are limping into October and hoping to catch a break or two and go on a run. Will either of them be able to do it?
PHOENIX, AZ – OCTOBER 02: Starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel #60 of the Houston Astros throws against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning of a MLB game at Chase Field on October 2, 2015 in Phoenix, Arizona. Keuchel earned his 20th win of the season as the Astros defeated the Diamondbacks 21-5. (Photo by Ralph Freso/Getty Images)
How will Dallas Keuchel react to short rest?
Keuchel has never pitched on less than four days rest, but he’ll be asked to go on short rest in the biggest game of his career. The Yankees certainly hope it takes a toll on him, since he’s dominated New York in two starts this season: in 16 IP, Keuchel has allowed just nine hits, no earned runs (including one shutout), and has struck out 21 batters. The Yankees simply had no answer for him. Now though, Keuchel takes the ball on three days rest since the Astros needed him to pitch over the weekend with their postseason hopes still in doubt. Ace pitchers have gone on short rest before – just look to last year’s World Series game 7 for one example – but it’s still a roll of the dice. Will Keuchel’s command and his stuff be sub-par? Will he tire out early and have to hand the game over to the bullpen? Keuchel has already thrown more innings this year than any other in his career. Will that finally catch up with him after missing a day of rest?
NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 07: Greg Bird #31 of the New York Yankees hits a three run home run against the Baltimore Orioles in the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium on September 7, 2015 in New York City. (Photo by Andy Marlin/Getty Images)
Will the Yankees offense finally come alive?
It may not matter how much rest Keuchel has if the Yankees can’t hit, anyway. In their last 14 games, the Yankees are averaging just 3.1 runs and have looked tired and beaten up. As a team, they hit .233 with a .709 OPS in September and October. It’s possible that some of their older players are worn down, and it’s also possible that they’re just in a team-wide slump. Everyone has a clean slate now though, and the regular season numbers are meaningless once the game starts. But it’s hard to ignore just how bad the Yankees offense has been. The playoffs may be the elixir they need to snap out of it, but that’s far from a given. And with how badly they’ve been dominated by Keuchel this year, their slump couldn’t come at a worse time.
HOUSTON, TX – SEPTEMBER 26: Jose Altuve #27 of the Houston Astros celebrates his solo home run with Carlos Correa #1 during the eighth inning against theTexas Rangers at Minute Maid Park on September 26, 2015 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Eric Christian Smith/Getty Images)
Is the moment too big for the Astros?
Houston was putrid on the road this year, posting a 33-48 record and an OPS that was 60 points lower than what they put up at home. The pitching staff’s ERA was significantly higher on the road, too. And to make matters worse, they’re facing a do-or-die elimination game in one of the most intimidating places to play in all of baseball. There are a lot of ghosts in Yankee Stadium (even the new version) that have felled better teams than the Astros, and they’re a fairly young team with many of their players getting their first taste of postseason play. Of course, that could also be the thing that saves them from being intimidated when it comes down to it. Most of the Yankees have been there before and know what to expect. The Astros are the opposite, and how they react to having their playoff lives on the line in an extremely hostile environment will be fascinating to watch.
NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 30: Masahiro Tanaka #19 of the New York Yankees reacts after giving up a three run home run to Travis Shaw of the Boston Red Sox in the first inning on September 30, 2015 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
What does Masahiro Tanaka have left in the tank?
Tanaka missed most of the last two weeks of the season with a hamstring injury. He made one start on September 30 and wasn’t very good, giving up four runs in five innings while striking out just three. Yet he holds the Yankees’ playoff hopes in his hands, with the team hoping he’s healed up enough to be effective against a powerful Astros lineup. Houston is capable of out-slugging anyone in baseball and the smaller dimensions of Yankee Stadium seem to play to their strengths. It will be up to Tanaka to keep them in the ballpark and off the scoreboard, and it’s hard to say how well he’ll be able to do those things at less than full strength. With the way their offense has been going lately, the Yankees will need Tanaka to be at the top of his game and keep the score close. Can he do it on just one healthy hamstring?
