The Cardinals and Dodgers, the two highest seeds in the National League, both find themselves staring elimination in the face after both suffered disheartening losses last night. The Cards did what they wanted to do against Jake Arrieta – make him look human – but still couldn’t hold down the powerful Cubs lineup. The Dodgers took an early lead before getting blown out of the water by the Mets. Now with their seasons on the line, both teams will turn to their best starters on short rest. Will that be enough to stem the tide?
For the Cardinals, going with Lackey seems to be the safe choice. He was their most reliable starter down the stretch, posting a 2.29 ERA in September and October before thoroughly dominating the Cubs in Game 1. Lackey limited the Cubs to just two hits in 7 1/3 innings and one of those hits was a bunt against the shift. After the way the Cubs have pounded Cards pitching the last two games, it makes sense for St. Louis to turn to the one guy who seems to have their number.
But Lackey will be going on short rest, which is something he hasn’t done in over a decade. For what it’s worth he performed well in that outing, but that was ten years ago so it probably isn’t worth much. Lackey is 36 now, not 26, and it’s not clear how his body will respond to shorter rest. He only threw 86 pitches in Game 1, which works to his advantage and may show some forward-thinking from Mike Matheny. But Lackey also is coming off a season where he threw over 200 innings for the first time since 2010, so there’s no guarantee his arm will respond well to pitching a day earlier than usual. But given the alternatives, the Cardinals really have no other choice.
LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 09: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts after walking Curtis Granderson #3 of the New York Mets in the seventh inning in game one of the National League Division Series at Dodger Stadium on October 9, 2015 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
The Dodgers, like the Cardinals, are top-heavy in their rotation with no acceptable option behind Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Kershaw was the only choice, especially facing elimination. And even though the playoffs have been Kershaw’s bugaboo over the course of his career, the Dodgers have to feel good about throwing him out there even if it’s a day earlier than normal.
Unlike Lackey, Kershaw has plenty of recent experience pitching on three days rest and all of it has been in the playoffs. In the 2013 NLDS, he held the Braves to two unearned runs and three hits over six innings, a game in which the Dodgers ultimately won to advance to the NLCS. And in last year’s NLDS, Kershaw took the mound in Game 4 and held the Cardinals in check for six innings until Matt Adams hit a series-clinching homer off of him. Everybody remembers that home run, but Kershaw struck out ninebatters in that game and had given up just a single hit until the 7th inning. He’s been just as tough on short rest as he has been on his regular turn.
So it seems like the Dodgers are in the better position of the two teams tonight, since their starter has more experience going after three days and has been successful doing it. But Lackey has been no slouch this season, and the way he dominated the Cubs could lead someone to believe he can do it again.
The Cardinals and Dodgers both have their backs against the wall, and both aree hoping their risks pay off. If they don’t, none of their starters will have to worry about going on short rest for a long time.
