You can forgive Giants fans if they got a little jumpy on the first of January, when the euphoria of another World Series championship was pushed aside by the creeping horror of the start to another odd year. Is there such a thing as an odd year curse? Some Giants fans certainly think so, and their team’s performances in years following a title could turn anyone into a believer. The 2015 Giants look to be no exception: they’ve lost lineup pillars Pablo Sandoval and Michael Morse, they were rejected by free agent prize Jon Lester and instead brought back every member of a shaky rotation, their lineup is significantly weaker than last year, and they’ll be without Hunter Pence for at least April. And while the Giants have done little to improve their standing, the rest of their division has gotten stronger. If the defending champs hope to get back into the playoffs to try for their fourth in six, it’s going to be quite an uphill battle.
Depth Chart (as of 3/27)
C: Buster Posey, Andrew Susac, Hector Sanchez
1B: Brandon Belt, Buster Posey
2B: Joe Panik, Joaquin Arias
3B: Casey McGehee, Matt Duffy
SS: Brandon Crawford, Joaquin Arias
LF: Nori Aoki, Juan Perez
CF: Angel Pagan, Gregor Blanco
RF: Hunter Pence (injured), Gregor Blanco, Justin Maxwell
SP: Madison Bumgarner, Jake Peavy, Matt Cain, Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum
RP: Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo, Javier Lopez, Jeremy Affeldt, Yusmeiro Petit, Ryan Vogelsong, Jean Machi
New Faces:
Casey McGehee, Nori Aoki, Justin Maxwell
Departures:
Pablo Sandoval, Michael Morse
SCOTTSDALE, AZ – MARCH 4: Andrew Susac #34 of the San Francisco Giants bats during a spring training game Oakland Athletics at Scottsdale Stadium on March 4, 2015 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Rob Tringali/Getty Images)
Impact Rookies:
Andrew Susac is technically a rookie, even though he saw time at the big league level last year and left a good impression. He may not win the backup catcher job out of spring training, but Susac’s bat is too good to let him linger in the minors for very long. Susac could have an impact in a different way, too: with Buster Posey entrenched as the every day catcher and Brandon Belt blocking a Posey move to first, Susac might be the team’s best trade chip if they need to make a big addition at the deadline. Another name to keep an eye on is Matt Duffy, who like Susac is still technically a rookie. Duffy has had a great spring and is forcing the Giants to keep him on the roster. If Casey McGehee falters at third base this year, Duffy is the logical in-house choice to replace him.
PHOENIX, AZ – JUNE 20: Hector Sanchez #29 of the San Francisco Giants bats against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the MLB game at Chase Field on June 20, 2014 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Diamondbacks defeated the Giants 4-1 (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Position Battles:
Susac and Hector Sanchez are battling it out for the backup catcher job, with the edge probably going to Sanchez right now. The Giants likely want Susac to get regular at bats, something he wouldn’t get in San Francisco, and Sanchez seems to be the preferred catcher of Tim Lincecum which might carry some weight. Backup outfielder is also up for grabs between Travis Ishikawa, Juan Perez, and non-roster invitee Justin Maxwell. Maxwell is a long shot but he’s been impressive this spring, and the Giants will be looking for someone to step up in right field during Pence’s absence. Finally, the last spot in the bullpen is likely going to either Jean Machi or George Kontos and don’t be surprised if the Giants try to trade whichever reliever comes up short.
SCOTTSDALE, AZ – MARCH 4: Angel Pagan #16 of the San Francisco Giants runs the bases during a spring training game at Scottsdale Stadium on March 4, 2015 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Rob Tringali/Getty Images)
Injury Concerns:
Angel Pagan has missed significant time over the past two seasons with back injuries, playing in only 167 games combined in that time frame. He had back surgery that was supposed to cure him of his problems, but his back has once again been problematic this spring and he’s already received a painkilling injection for it. If he plays in 100 games this year, the Giants will be doing cartwheels. The team should also be leery of Matt Cain, who’s returning from both elbow and ankle surgeries and hopes to reclaim the form he hasn’t shown since 2012. And there’s always the possibility that Tim Hudson, who’ll be 39 this year and had some ankle discomfort before the season, could finally break down.
SCOTTSDALE, AZ – MARCH 11: Buster Posey #28 of the San Francisco Giants swings at a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers during the first inning of a Cactus League game at Scottsdale Stadium on March 11, 2015 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Ralph Freso/Getty Images)
Most Important Player:
Posey is the engine that makes the team go, if car analogies are your thing. He’s the team’s best overall hitter and is capable of carrying the offense for long stretches at a time, as evidenced by his torrid August and September last year that brought the Giants back into the playoff picture. He’s also charged with keeping a shaky starting rotation (after Madison Bumgarner) on track, a job that’ll be even more important this year considering how bad the offense might be. Bumgarner may be getting all the press, and Pence may be getting all the attention, but Posey is by far the most important player on the Giants.
SAN FRANCISCO, CA – OCTOBER 07: Brandon Belt #9 of the San Francisco Giants reacts after striking out to end the fifth inning against the Washington Nationals during Game Four of the National League Division Series at AT&T Park on October 7, 2014 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
X-Factor:
Last year, Brandon Belt seemed well on his way to posting the breakout year at the plate the Giants had been waiting to see from him before being hit by a pitch and breaking a bone in his hand. Belt missed significant time, came back, and then suffered a concussion after being hit in the head by a throw during batting practice. It was a lost season for him and took him quite a while to get his timing back, but he hit .308/.379/.346 in the World Series and finally looked like himself again. He’s been killing the ball this spring and the Giants will need him to carry that over into the regular season. The lineup is significantly weaker this year without Sandoval and Morse, and Belt is the guy who’ll be counted on to pick up most of the slack in the middle of the order. He’s perfectly capable of hitting 30 home runs if he stays healthy and could be a difference-maker in the lineup.
SCOTTSDALE, AZ – FEBRUARY 27: Casey McGehee #14 of the San Francisco Giants poses for a portrait during spring training photo day at Scottsdale Stadium on February 27, 2015 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Key Question:
Will they score enough to be competitive? The losses of Sandoval and Morse took two big bats out of the middle of the order and the Giants replaced them with McGehee, who managed four home runs last year and faded badly in the second half, and Nori Aoki, a good hitter who has little pop. And with Pence missing at least a month with a broken bone, it’s going to be awfully hard for the Giants to put many runs on the board. It’d be different if they had the same dynamite pitching staff they had a few years ago which made it possible for them to win by scoring only two or three runs per game, but those days are long gone. The Giants will need to get creative, manufacture runs when they can, and hope it’s enough to keep them in ballgames.
KANSAS CITY, MO – OCTOBER 29: Buster Posey #28 and Madison Bumgarner #40 of the San Francisco Giants celebrate after defeating the Kansas City Royals to win Game Seven of the 2014 World Series by a score of 3-2 at Kauffman Stadium on October 29, 2014 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Best Case Scenario:
The Giants lineup is much better than anyone anticipated, and they manage to tread water until Pence comes back and then really take off. McGehee shows last year wasn’t just a fluke and does a decent enough Sandoval impression at the plate and in the field. Belt, Posey and Pence give the Giants an imposing middle of the order. Pagan plays in 130 games and looks like his old self. Bumgarner challenges Clayton Kershaw’s reign as the best pitcher in baseball, and the rest of the rotation performs well. Cain wins Comeback Player of the Year. The Giants keep pace with the Dodgers in the NL West until the end of September but still manage to lock up the first NL Wild Card spot, giving themselves a chance to finally go back-to-back.
Worst Case Scenario:
Things fall apart, quickly. The offense is historically bad and the Giants struggle to score more than three runs per game. McGehee reminds everyone why he was playing in Japan just two years ago and is out of the lineup by June. Pagan plays in 60 games and makes it clear he’ll never be fully healthy again. Bumgarner pitches well but is the victim of no run support, and the rest of the rotation shows its age and the Giants run through nine different starting pitchers. The Giants can’t keep pace with the Diamondbacks or the Padres, let alone the Dodgers, and finish a disappointing 4th in the NL West, out of contention before the end of the summer.
Realistic Prediction:
The Giants overcame quite a lot last year to win the World Series, and they’ll have to do the same this year if they hope to even sniff the postseason. They’re not an easy team to bet against, though– if history has shown us anything, it’s that the Giants find ways to win when nearly everyone seems to count them out. But their path to the playoffs is a tough one this time around. They lost quite a bit from last year’s team and added next to nothing in response. They’ll be competitive, and finishing better than .500 isn’t that hard to imagine. But it’s awfully tough picturing them in the playoffs again with the roster they have right now (which means they’ll probably win it all again, of course).
