Even with the Chicago Cubs acquiring Jon Lester, and the Chicago White Sox doing their thing, and the multitude of Cole Hamels-to-Boston rumors, the San Diego Padres, of all teams, managed to serve as the talk of the offseason. And why not? They improved perhaps more than any other team in the game, completely overhauling their big league roster while keeping their top prospects intact. Their new outfield of Wil Myers, Justin Upton, and Matt Kemp could be among the most fun groups in the game, while their rotation that now boasts James Shields at the top could be among the game’s best. Even with that in mind, though, can they challenge the likes of Los Angeles and San Francisco for a division title? Or is the best they can hope for a wild card spot? Either way, Padres fans will take it, as San Diego appears bound for its first playoff appearance since 2006.
Depth Chart (as of 3/26):
C: Derek Norris
1B: Yonder Alonso
2B: Jedd Gyorko
SS: Alexi Amarista
3B: Yangervis Solarte
LF: Justin Upton
CF: Wil Myers
RF: Matt Kemp
SP: James Shields
SP: Tyson Ross
SP: Andrew Cashner
SP: Ian Kennedy
SP: Brandon Morrow
CL: Joaquin Benoit
New Faces: Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Derek Norris, James Shields, Will Middlebrooks, Brandon Morrow, Brandon Maurer, Tim Federowicz
Departures: Seth Smith, Yasmani Grandal, Rene Rivera, Everth Cabrera, Tim Stauffer, Eric Stults
PEORIA, AZ – MARCH 02: Austin Hedges #70 of the San Diego Padres poses for a portrait during spring training photo day at Peoria Stadium on March 2, 2015 in Peoria, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Impact Rookies: While the Padres were largely able to keep their farm system intact, in terms of their top prospects, after the multitude of deals made by A.J. Preller, there isn’t going to be a ton of room for rookies to break through in the upcoming year. Cory Spangenberg could be in the mix for a bench spot as a utility infielder. Catcher Austin Hedges, the club’s top prospect, could see time before the end of the year, especially if the Padres are at all unsatisfied with the performance of Derek Norris. Their other two top prospects, pitcher Matthew Wisler and outfielder Rymer Liriano, will have a tough time breaking through in the upcoming season, simply due to the volume of players that the Padres currently boast in front of them.
Position Battles: Third base could be there for the taking. What initially looked like the job of Will Middlebrooks currently has Yangervis Solarte penciled in at the hot corner on the Padres’ official site. However, Middlebrooks has played exclusively at the hot corner in the spring, while Solarte has bounced around a bit, meaning that the latter could serve something of a utility role, but still manage to find work almost daily. Cory Spangenberg likely isn’t in the mix for the starting gig, but could serve in a backup capacity.
The fifth rotation spot could be up for grabs as well, with the veteran Brandon Morrow, trying to regain his old form, taking on primarily Odrisamer Despaigne for the final spot. Both have pitched well throughout the spring, but the job could very well go to the veteran Morrow, who has pitched just slightly better in the exhibition season.
First base is also interesting. The Padres currently have Yonder Alonso, but other folks that could be in the running have also performed very well this spring. Tommy Medica has an average over .500 for the spring season, while Brett Wallace (yes, that Brett Wallace) has also fared quite well and brings the left-handed bat to the equation. Medica could force his way into the lineup regularly, if not steal the job altogether.
Injury Concerns: Matt Kemp is coming off of his first healthy season in a while, and even then, you still wonder how long it’ll last. The trade with the Dodgers was almost called off on account of arthritis in his hips. The rotation, as great as it could be, could also be a colossal disaster if the likes of Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross can’t remain healthy.
PEORIA, AZ – MARCH 05: Matt Kemp #27 of the San Diego Padres watches from the dugout during the spring training game against the Seattle Mariners at Peoria Stadium on March 5, 2015 in Peoria, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Most Important Player: Matt Kemp brings a star power that the Padres previously lacked, while also serving as the key figure for this team on offense. He’s coming off of a very solid year in which he hit .287 and reached base at a .346 clip, and for all the talk about his power being down, he still hit 25 home runs. It’ll be interesting to see how he fares in the transition to Petco Park. Steamer has him projected at 19 home runs and a .335 OBP, along with a .186 ISO. Each of those represents a regression, which he will have to outperform in order to be the cornerstone the Padres thought they were acquiring.
While Kemp’s offense will likely come to play, assuming he remains healthy, there are serious questions about his defense, which has regressed significantly in the past couple of years. That’s part of the reason that the Padres will roll with Wil Myers in centerfield, rather than Kemp (in addition to trying to keep him healthy). If he can play at least serviceable defense, he’ll be every bit the key piece that the Padres had hoped they were acquiring when they worked for most of the offseason to bring him in.
X-Factor: The Padres’ infield offense was absolutely abysmal last season. Derek Norris is going to have to serve as a catalyst to help them turn that around. He’s coming off of a terrific last season in Oakland, as he reached base at a .361 clip, and provided decent enough power in what was primarily a platoon situation for a good chunk of the year. He also runs the bases pretty well for a catcher. Steamer has him projected at a .153 ISO, which would be a 20 point improvement from last year, though they have his average regressing quite a bit, with a very moderate .274 BABIP. He should be able to outperform those projections and serve as the offensive leader for the offensively questionable infield.
SAN FRANCISCO, CA – SEPTEMBER 29: Jedd Gyorko #9 of the San Dieigo Padres watches his grand slam on a pitch from reliever Jake Dunning #51 of the San Francisco Giants in the fifth inning at AT&T Park on September 29, 2013 in San Francisco, California. The slam was Gyorko’s 23rd home run of his rookie season. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)
Key Question: How much offense can the infield contribute?
Even bigger than the pitching staff’s potential inability to stay healthy, the Padres’ infield isn’t the prettiest of pictures. We talk so much about their outfield and new trio of Upton, Myers, and Kemp, that it’s easy to forget that this infield will feature Yonder Alonso, Jedd Gyorko (who is coming off of a miserable season), Alexi Amarista (who went for an OBP of just .286 last season), and some combination of Will Middlebrooks and Yangervis Solarte. That group, with the exception of Derek Norris behind the dish, is certainly a concern for them moving into the 2015 season.
Alonso could lose his job to Tommy Medica at some point, if Medica can perform at a level remotely near where he’s played this spring. Gyorko’s BABIP was just .253 last year, which is bound to improve and could help his numbers turnaround from a year ago. Middlebrooks has had a very solid spring thus far and could benefit from the change of scenery. They’ll have to prove it, but there is a chance that this Padres infield could outperform their initial expectations.
PEORIA, AZ – MARCH 4: Justin Upton #10 of the San Diego Padres bats during the game against the Seattle Mariners on March 4, 2015 at Peoria Stadium in Peoria, Arizona. The Mariners defeated the Padres 4-3 in 10 innings. (Photo by Rich Pilling/Getty Images)
Best Case Scenario: We know where this goes for the Padres at its height. The outfield comes through in a big way, as Kemp, Myers, and Upton all turn in phenomenal years and provide decent enough defense. The infield outperforms expectations offensively, with Will Middlebrooks leading the group. The pitching staff remains healthy and cruises through the 2015 season in absolutely dominant fashion, with one of the league’s best relief groups behind them. That pitching staff leads them through the playoffs, while the Padres score just enough postseason runs to capture their first World Series title in franchise history.
Worst Case Scenario: We also know where this goes if things go south for San Diego. Kemp could struggle to stay healthy, and the outfield could be a disaster defensively, with their offense failing to overshadow their shortcomings with the glove. As bad as the outfield could be defensively, the infield could be worse at the plate, as the Padres get very little from their infielders on the score sheet. The rotation might struggle to stay healthy, as Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross, and Brandon Morrrow all miss time. They fight with Arizona and Colorado for third in the division, at best.
Realistic Scenario: While this team may not run away with the division, as Los Angeles and San Francisco still represent very real hurdles, this team is a legitimate threat in the National League. The outfield should be a fun one to watch, and the infield should perform better than expected. The rotation should be among the best in the league, with James Shields anchoring the group, and high upside arms in Cashner, Ross, and Ian Kennedy. This team should absolutely be in the mix, and could very likely capture, one of those wild card spots in the NL. From there, they could make noise in a short series, with as high quality a pitching staff as they have.
