The Colorado Rockies knew changes were needed after their fourth straight losing season, one that saw them drop 96 games and barely avoid a third straight last place finish in the NL West. But rather than trading the high salaries of Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez and rebuilding, the Rockies instead dumped GM Dan O’Dowd and replaced him with Jeff Bridich in hopes that a change in front office philosophy would make a difference. Looking at their roster though, there’s no discernible difference to be found: the Rockies are bringing back largely the same team from last year, only with arguably worse starting pitching. A clean bill of health might help them win a few more games, but it’s hard to see how they’ll avoid another 90-loss season in the ultra competitive NL West.
Depth Chart:
C: Nick Hundley, Wilin Rosario, Michael McKenry
1B: Justin Morneau, Wilin Rosario
2B: D.J. LeMahieu, Daniel Descalso
3B: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Culberson
SS: Troy Tulowitzki, Daniel Descalso
LF: Corey Dickerson, Brandon Barnes
CF: Charlie Blackmon, Drew Stubbs
RF: Carlos Gonzalez, Drew Stubbs
SP: Kyle Kendrick, Jorge De La Rosa, Jordan Lyles, Tyler Matzek, David Hale/Jon Gray
RP: LaTroy Hawkins, Rex Brothers, John Axford, Adam Ottavino, Tommy Kahnle, Boone Logan, Brooks Brown, Jairo Diaz
New Faces:
Nick Hundley, Daniel Descalso, Jairo Diaz, John Axford
Departures:
Michael Cuddyer, Josh Rutledge, Franklin Morales, Matt Belisle, Brett Anderson, Nick Masset, Juan Nicasio
DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 20: Eddie Butler #31 of the Colorado Rockies pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the first inning of a game at Coors Field on September 20, 2014 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
Impact Rookies:
Eddie Butler started three games for the Rockies last year and may be ready to stick for good, especially considering the fragile state of the Colorado rotation. Jon Gray, another starter, has looked impressive this spring and would also be a good bet to get a look at the big league level sometime this season. Taking into account that the Rockies used 15 (!!) different starting pitchers last year, chances are Butler and Gray will get their opportunities to make an impact in the majors and give their club some hope of a stabilized starting rotation. The rest of the Rockies’ better prospects are still a few years away from the majors at least and won’t see Colorado this season.
Position Battles:
They’re set at every position except maybe catcher, where the newly signed Nick Hundley will battle it out with Wilin Rosario and Michael McKenry for playing time. But even that’s not much of a battle: The Rockies gave Hundley $6.25 million over two years because they were less than enamored with Rosario’s defense and the way he handled their pitchers, and they’ll take any advantage they can get when it comes to trying to make their pitching staff better. The last spot in the rotation will likely come down to David Hale and Gray, with the edge probably going to Gray right now. And in the bullpen, one name to keep an eye on is Jairo Diaz. Acquired from the Angels over the winter, the righty reaches triple digits with ease and is seemingly the closer-in-waiting. If LaTroy Hawkins falters or is traded over the summer, Diaz should get his chance to close.
DENVER, CO – MAY 05: Troy Tulowitzki #2 of the Colorado Rockies celebrates his two run home run off of starting pitcher Martin Perez #33 of the Texas Rangers with Carlos Gonzalez #5 of the Colorado Rockies to give the Rockies a 5-0 lead in the fifth inning during Interleague play at Coors Field on May 5, 2014 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)
Injury Concerns:
The Rockies were bitten hard by the injury bug last year. Their two biggest offensive threats, Tulowitzki and Gonzalez, combined for only 161 games between them. Both of them have troubling injury histories, too: Tulowitzki hasn’t topped 150 games played since 2009, and Gonzalez has only played in 180 games over the past two seasons. Even though they’ve gotten through the spring unscathed thus far, both of them have to be considered huge injury risks. Another concern is starting pitcher Jorge De La Rosa, who’s been bothered by a sore groin this spring. The injury appears to be worrisome enough that the Rockies have named Kyle Kendrick as their opening day starter instead of De La Rosa, who was by far the team’s best pitcher last year.
Most Important Player:
Tulowitzki is obviously the team’s most important player, for a few different reasons. For one, he’s the face of the franchise and the only member of the Rockies anyone would buy a ticket just to see play. Keeping him healthy and productive is paramount if Colorado hopes to improve at all this year. Also, Tulowitzki is the key to the Rockies rebuild if they decide to go that route. No one on their roster would fetch as much on the trade market as Tulowitzki would. Considering his potential production, the $114 million still owed to him through 2021 wouldn’t be much of a barrier in moving him. If he’s healthy, producing, and the Rockies are hopelessly out of contention by July, he could bring back a ransom in prospects.
PHOENIX, AZ – AUGUST 30: Third baseman Nolan Arenado #28 of the Colorodo Rockies makes a bare hand catch on a ground ball against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the eighth inning of a MLB game at Chase Field on August 30, 2014 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Ralph Freso/Getty Images)
X-Factor:
Nolan Arenado took a big step forward in 2014, hitting .287/.328/.500 while slugging 18 homers and playing a solid third base. If he hadn’t broken his finger sliding headfirst into second base in late May, his numbers would’ve been even better. Regardless, Arenado looks like the future centerpiece of the Rockies offense especially if they end up trading Tulowitzki and Gonzalez. He’s poised to take a big leap this year, especially if he can avoid fluke injuries. His bat in the middle of the lineup all season long could help the Rockies see some progress by year’s end.
Key Question:
Do they have any pitching at all? There’s no doubting the Rockies have one of the league’s most dangerous offenses, even away from the friendly confines of Coors Field. But their pitching was absolutely putrid last year– their starting rotation and bullpen were both last in ERA, amazingly– and did nothing to improve it. No offense to Kyle Kendrick, but when he’s your opening day starter you might have some issues. If the Rockies can get any kind of success from their pitchers, they’ll take big steps toward respectability this season. But it sure looks like their pitching staff has the same problems it had last year: Mainly, it’s awful.
DENVER, CO – JUNE 7: Troy Tulowitzki #2 and Carlos Gonzalez #5 of the Colorado Rockies celebrate two runs scored with Nolan Arenado #28 in the first inning of a game against the San Diego Padres at Coors Field on June 7, 2013 in Denver, Colorado. The Rockies led the Padres 3-0 after one inning. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
Best Case Scenario:
Tulowitzki, Gonzalez, and Arenado all play in 140-plus games and all three make the All-Star team. Buoyed by the continued progress of Charlie Blackmon, D.J. LeMahieu, and Corey Dickerson, the Rockies field their best offense since the days of the Blake Street Bombers and are capable of out-slugging any team on any given night. Hundley proves to be worth every penny the Rockies invested in him, somehow guiding the highly combustible pitching staff into something resembling a big league rotation. The Rockies don’t finish .500 since their division is so tough, but they do manage to lose just 85 games, giving them their best record since 2010 and giving manager Walt Weiss a contract extension in the offseason.
Worst Case Scenario:
Tulowitzki and Gonzalez can’t shake their injury woes and don’t reach 150 games combined, leaving the Rockies with a huge hole in the middle of their lineup. Arenado stays healthy but his numbers don’t improve much since teams avoid letting him beat them. The Rockies are still able to score runs, but their pitching staff implodes, is incapable of keeping the team in ballgames, and they use a double-digit number of starters yet again. Because of how bad their pitching is, the Rockies lose 100 games for the first time in their history and GM Bridich, wanting to bring in his own manager, fires Weiss at season’s end. Dinger the Dinosaur is arrested for indecent exposure after refusing to put on pants.
Realistic Prediction:
Chances are if Dinger was going to be arrested for not wearing pants, it would’ve happened by now. Also, the Rockies offense is probably too good to allow them to lose 100 games if everyone stays reasonably healthy; the pitching staff, though, just isn’t good enough to make them any kind of contender. The NL West will likely eat Colorado alive, and a 90-loss season or more seems inevitable. The Rockies would probably be best served by trading their most desirable assets (Tulowitzki, Gonzalez, even Justin Morneau), rebuilding around Arenado, Dickerson, LeMahieu and their homegrown talent, and hoping they can develop enough pitching to contend in the next few years.
