Nobody takes the Baltimore Orioles too seriously entering the season. The Baltimore Orioles surprise everyone and make the playoffs. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. After a relatively inactive offseason in which they saw several major free agents walk away, the Orioles was again are positioned to sneak up on the rest of the league, but do they really have another season of magic left in them?
Depth Chart (as of 2/20)
C: Matt Wieters
1B: Chris Davis
2B: Jonathan Schoop
SS: J.J. Hardy
3B: Manny Machado
LF: Alejandro de Aza/Delmon Young
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Travis Snider/David Lough
DH: Steve Pearce
SP: Chris Tillman
SP: Wei-Yin Chen
SP: Bud Norris
SP: Miguel Gonzalez
SP: Kevin Gausman
CL: Zach Britton
New Faces: Travis Snider, Wesley Wright
Departures: Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis, Andrew Miller, Kelly Johnson, Nick Hundley
BALTIMORE, MD – SEPTEMBER 25: Dylan Bundy #49 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 25, 2012 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
Impact Rookies: There aren’t any rookies projected to play a role with Orioles when camp breaks, but that could change during the season. Dylan Bundy is coming off Tommy John surgery in 2013, but prior to his surgery had been an elite pitching prospect. The surgery slowed his development some, but he remains a top prospect and a guy that could be the first to step in when someone in the rotation gets hurt, assuming the O’s are done pretending like Ubaldo Jimenez is salvageable. If Bundy gets called up early enough, he’s the kind of talent that would be a strong contender for Rookie of the Year.
After that, there isn’t much to look for out of the Baltimore farm system. Christian Walker is a dark horse to be a contributor after he tore up the minors last season. He isn’t a highly-ranked prospect but at a point you can’t ignore production. Don’t be surprised to see him get a look if Chris Davis tanks again or if the O’s aren’t getting any production out of their incumbent DH options.
BALTIMORE, MD – OCTOBER 03: Delmon Young #27 of the Baltimore Orioles hits a three run RBI double to deep left feild in the eighth inning against Joakim Soria #38 of the Detroit Tigers during Game Two of the American League Division Series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on October 3, 2014 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Position Battles: On the pitching side of things, the Orioles are pretty well set. The lineup is an entirely different matter though. Baltimore is very much unsettled at the corners and DH right now.
Those three spots will be manned by some combination of Travis Snider, Alejandro de Aza, Steve Pearce, Delmon Young and David Lough. Snider and Pearce are both coming off very strong seasons, but both are likely better off as part of a platoon and both are also not far removed from being close to replacement level players. That whole hodge podge of players will all get playing time this season, but it remains to be seen exactly how it is going to be divvied up. Honestly, it probably isn’t even something that is going to get sorted out until well into the season.
BALTIMORE, MD – AUGUST 11: Manny Machado #13 of the Baltimore Orioles is helped off the field after injuring his leg in the third inning against the New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 11, 2014 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
Injury Concerns: The O’s certainly have injuries to deal with, but they may not technically qualify as “concerns.” The two big injuries are Matt Wieters and Manny Machado. That might sound familiar because each of those guys got hurt last season and are now on the comeback trail. They are definitely important players, but Baltimore was without both of their services much of last season and things still turned out just fine. Still, it sure it would be nice if they were both healthy.
Wieters is coming off Tommy John surgery and is supposedly entering training camp without any limitations. If healthy, Wieters is a big part of the roster for both his offensive and defensive contributions. The defense is the part of his game that will be most affected by his recovery, so it isn’t entirely out of the question that Wieters might have to moonlight more at DH when the season starts. There is also a chance that the O’s will have to cut back on the 130+ games Wieters usually plays.
As for Machado, there is more concern (there’s that word again). Like Wieters, Machado is expected to be ready for camp, but this is also the second season in a row where his season has been cut short by a major knee injury. That’s not a good trend. Machado is very young, so one would think he’d be able to bounce back, but major knee injuries just can’t be shrugged off.
BALTIMORE, MD – AUGUST 13: Adam Jones #10 of the Baltimore Orioles reacts after being hit with a pie after the Orioles defeated the New York Yankees 5-3 during a baseball game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 13, 2014 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
Most Important Player: Adam Jones
With the attrition that the Baltimore lineup has seen with Nick Markakis gleefully taking Atlanta’s money and Seattle making good on their second chance to sign Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones has never been more important to the O’s. He’s been a fringe MVP candidate for Baltimore the last few years, but now it is on him to carry the lineup. Sure, Wieters, Machado and Davis are still around, but those three are all huge question marks. Jones needs to make sure his play doesn’t slip even a little bit because there is no telling what his supporting cast is going to do around him.
TORONTO, CANADA – AUGUST 7: Chris Davis #19 of the Baltimore Orioles waits as a play is reviewed by video in the third inning during MLB game action against the Toronto Blue Jays on August 7, 2014 at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
X-Factor: Chris Davis
In 2013, Chris Davis was a massive breakout star and legitimate MVP candidate. In 2014, Chris Davis was a massive disappointment and illegitimate user of PEDs.
While nobody expect Davis to crank 53 homers again, his power production dropped in half, to just 26 homers last season. More importantly, Davis managed to his just .196, taking him from being the heart of the offense to something of a black hole in the order. If Davis can find some sort of happy medium between being terrible and terrifying, Baltimore will be in good shape. They lost Nelson Cruz and his 40 dingers this offseason, so they very much need someone to step up and fill that power void. Davis is the ideal player to do that, but nobody knows if he actually can do it.
BALTIMORE, MD – OCTOBER 10: Chris Tillman #30 of the Baltimore Orioles throws a pitch in the first inning against the Kansas City Royals during Game One of the American League Championship Series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on October 10, 2014 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
Key Question: Can the rotation repeat their 2014 magic?
When you look at the Orioles rotation, there isn’t exactly anyone on the roster who is going to scare you. Yet the O’s had the third-best staff ERA in the American League and boasted five players who made at least 20 starts and finished the year with a 3.65 ERA or better. If not for the 22 starts they flushed down the toilet on Ubaldo Jimenez, Baltimore would’ve had a leading rotation in all of baseball.
Even though they are returning the same crop of starters, that level of success seems unlikely. Miguel Gonzalez had a shiny 3.23 ERA, but he coupled that with an ugly 4.89 FIP. Something simply has to give there. It is possible that this success could just be Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen and Kevin Gausman coming into their own, but it also relies heavily on Bud Norris pitching like, well, like he isn’t Bud Norris. With the offense likely to take step back this year, Baltimore needs the rotation to continue overachieving if they intend to win the AL East again.
BALTIMORE, MD – SEPTEMBER 17: Adam Jones #10 (L) hits teammate Christian Walker #18 of the Baltimore Orioles in the face with a pie after the Orioles defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 6-1 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 17, 2014 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Best Case Scenario: Stop me when you’ve heard this one before. The season starts with no one really taking Baltimore seriously, but then one of their hitters breaks out for a huge season, let’s say Manny Machado in this case, while their rotation overachieves and their bullpen pitches lights out all season long. Yeah, that sounds perfectly plausible, especially if Wieters and Machado show no lasting effects from their injuries and Tillman and/or Gausman tap into their potential and become a legit ace.
Worst Case Scenario: At some point the Oriole magic needs to run out. They can’t pull a 40+ homer slugger out of their butts every single year and shrug off catastrophic injuries to franchise cornerstones. Even though they won 96 games last year, it doesn’t take a lot of imagination to foresee a scenario in which Machado and Wieters don’t recover well, Davis remains below the Mendoza line, Snider and Pearce turn into pumpkins and everyone in the rotation realizes all at once that they are just back-of-the-rotation starters. Mix in some bad luck in one-run games for a change and suddenly you are looking at a Baltimore team finishing under .500.
Realistic Prediction: Even with Wieters and Machado back, the O’s didn’t do much to improve their roster despite losing Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis and some of their depth. Factor in improved competition from Boston, Toronto and the Yankees and Baltimore seems likely to get pulled back into the pack in the AL East. They still very much have a shot to win the division, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they won 85 games and finished third.
