In 2011, the Arizona Diamondbacks won 94 games and the NL West division crown before falling just short in the division series. They looked like a team on the rise with a roster full of young, exciting players set to come into their primes together. Fast forward three seasons later and the D-backs haven’t won more than 81 games since, capped off by last year’s 98-loss nightmare that brought sweeping changes to the front office. The D-Backs handed over control of baseball operations to Tony La Russa, who in turn brought along Dave Stewart as his GM and highly regarded Chip Hale as manager. They made a splash over the winter by outbidding the rest of baseball for Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas, and added a few young arms to a rotation that needed help. Overall though, there was little turnover on a roster that nearly lost triple-digit games and the outlook for 2015 doesn’t look very promising.
Depth Chart (as of 3/23)
C: Tuffy Gosewisch, Gerald Laird
1B: Paul Goldschmidt, Mark Trumbo
2B: Aaron Hill, Cliff Pennington
3B: Yasmany Tomas, Jake Lamb
SS: Chris Owings, Cliff Pennington
LF: David Peralta, Ender Inciarte
CF: A.J. Pollock, Ender Inciarte
RF: Mark Trumbo, Cody Ross
SP: Jeremy Hellickson, Josh Collmenter, Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Trevor Cahill/Chase Anderson
RP: Addison Reed, Brad Ziegler, Oliver Perez, Daniel Hudson, Randall Delgado, Evan Marshall
New Faces:
Chip Hale, Yasmany Tomas, Jeremy Hellickson, Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster
Departures:
Miguel Montero, Didi Gregorious, Wade Miley
MESA, AZ – MARCH 10: Yasmany Tomas #24 of the Arizona Diamondbacks hits a solo home-run against the Oakland Athletics during the second inning of the spring training game at HoHoKam Stadium on March 10, 2015 in Mesa, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Impact Rookies:
Tomas enters the league with big expectations and the D-Backs will be counting on him to protect Paul Goldschmidt in the middle of the order. But he’s struggled this spring at the plate, and there’s also the question of whether or not he’ll be able to stick at third base defensively. Arizona sure hopes so, but if not he’ll move to the outfield and the D-Backs will have to adjust their infield accordingly. Still, it’s easy to see why big things are expected from Tomas this year. He came with a big price tag and an impressive offensive resume from his time in Cuba, and Arizona desperately needs the shot in the arm his big bat might provide. He may not be Jose Abreu, but Tomas should be an impact player on a team that has very few.
PHOENIX, AZ – AUGUST 03: Catcher Tuffy Gosewisch #9 of the Arizona Diamondbacks fields a ground ball out against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the MLB game at Chase Field on August 3, 2014 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Position Battles:
Don’t be surprised if the Diamondbacks go through four or five different catchers by the time the season wraps up. Tuffy Gosewisch is hitting well this spring but he’s far from a sure thing, Gerald Laird is just hanging on at this point in his career, and Rule 5 draft pick Oscar Hernandez is shut down with a broken wrist. It’s the team’s weakest position by far and Arizona would be thrilled if someone grabbed the job by the throat and ran with it early in the season.
They have the opposite problem in the outfield: too many talented players and not enough jobs for them. Ender Inciarte is killing the ball this spring but is stuck behind David Peralta and A.J. Pollock. Mark Trumbo is working his way back from an injury-plagued ’14 season, and so is his expensive backup Cody Ross. And if Tomas is a disaster at third base (a very real possibility) and has to be moved to the outfield, it’s going to be an even bigger mess. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Arizona trade an outfielder (or two) over the course of the year, especially if Tomas is there full time.
CHICAGO, IL – APRIL 21: Mark Trumbo #15 of the Arizona Diamondbacks hits a solo home run during the seventh inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on April 21, 2014 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Brian Kersey/Getty Images)
Injury Concerns:
Goldschmidt, Trumbo, and Pollock all missed significant time last year which helped doom the Diamondbacks to last place. None of those players have significant injury history, though, so Arizona shouldn’t be worried about chronic injuries to their lineup pillars just yet. They also lost both Patrick Corbin and Bronson Arroyo to Tommy John surgery. Both of them should be back in the summer and you can expect the D-Backs to be extra cautious with them, especially Corbin.
PHOENIX, AZ – AUGUST 02: Paul Goldschmidt #44 of the Arizona Diamondbacks watches from the dugout during the MLB game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Chase Field on August 2, 2014 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Pirates defeated the Diamondbacks 8-3. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Most Important Player:
As Goldschmidt goes, so go the Diamondbacks. He’s talented enough to be a perennial MVP candidate and is the kind of linchpin player a team can build around. He’s also clearly the most valuable player on this team. Last season was a down year for him, but that can partially be attributed to both injury and a lack of support in the lineup. Kudos to La Russa and Stewart for realizing they needed to put a better supporting cast around their superstar; now, they’ll see if they did enough to reverse their fortunes. If Goldschmidt has the kind of monster year he’s capable of putting together, expect the D-Backs to be much improved.
GOODYEAR, AZ – MARCH 13: Jeremy Hellickson #58 of the Arizona Diamondbacks throws a warm up pitch prior to a spring training game against the Cleveland Indians on March 13, 2015 in Goodyear, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
X-Factor:
The D-Backs rotation can be considered an X-Factor since it’s not at all clear how they’re going to perform. It’s filled with former prospects that other teams have given up on (Jeremy Hellickson, Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster) and guys who would be perfectly acceptable rounding out the back end of a decent rotation (Josh Collmenter, Trevor Cahill). Corbin’s return from injury can’t come soon enough for Arizona, as he’s clearly their most talented starter. And it’s fair to wonder when we’ll see Yoan Lopez (another Cuban free agent Arizona splurged on this winter) or top prospect Archie Bradley make a few starts in the desert. The D-Backs’ rotation will go a long way in determining how much better they’ll be this season.
MESA, AZ – MARCH 10: Starting pitcher Trevor Cahill #35 of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitches against the Oakland Athletics during the spring training game at HoHoKam Stadium on March 10, 2015 in Mesa, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Key Question:
Do the D-Backs have enough pitching to compete? Their starting staff seems to be made up of back-of-the-rotation starters who are interchangeable with each other. Their bullpen wasn’t very good last year and they did little to improve it, and they’re still planning to stick with Addison Reed as closer when he’s healthy even though he was anything but impressive in his first season in Arizona. No one in their rotation should scare other teams, and their bullpen likely won’t be shortening games any time soon. So can the D-Backs expect to be much better when their pitching has so many question marks?
PHOENIX, AZ – JULY 20: Ender Inciarte #5 and teammate Paul Goldschmidt #44 of the Arizona Diamondbacks celebrate scoring a sixth inning run against the Chicago Cubs at Chase Field on July 20, 2014 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
Best Case Scenario:
Tomas hits like Jose Abreu and teams up with a revitalized Trumbo and MVP candidate Goldschmidt to form the most intimidating middle of the order in the National League. Pollock stays healthy and scores over 100 runs. The rotation comes into their own, especially the new trio of Hellickson, De La Rosa, and Webster and give the D-Backs a chance to win every night. Corbin returns in June and looks like his old self. Hale pushes all the right buttons and keeps the D-Backs in contention for a surprising Wild Card berth until early September. They miss the playoffs, but still finish ahead of both the injury-plagued San Francisco Giants and the disappointing San Diego Padres for second place in the NL West.
Worst Case Scenario:
Tomas hits like Dayan Viciedo and teams up with .220-hitting Trumbo to do absolutely nothing for Goldschmidt, who sets the D-Backs single season record for walks. The glut of talented outfielders all under-perform and Cody Ross is playing center by early summer. The rotation blows up, and the new trio of Hellickson, De La Rosa, and Webster each show why their former teams had no problem moving them. Corbin’s return is pushed back and he doesn’t look anything like his former self. The only button Hale has to push is labeled “self destruct” and the D-Backs are out of contention before the trade deadline. They are outclassed in their division by the talented Los Angeles Dodgers, the surprising Giants, and the improved Padres and finish in fourth place, just ahead of the Colorado Rockies.
Realistic Prediction:
The Diamondbacks will probably be better than they were last year if they can avoid the plague of injuries that hurt them so badly and get production out of Tomas and their trio of new pitchers. Still, there are just too many question marks to consider them a legitimate contender for the Wild Card. Chances are their win total will fall somewhere in the mid-to-high 70s with a .500 season (or slightly better) not entirely out of the realm of possibility. It should be seen as a transition year as La Russa and Stewart start to mold the roster to their liking and head toward another offseason where they can address the weaknesses they didn’t get to this past winter. Small but important steps forward should be the goal in 2015, with an eye on making big strides in 2016.
