2015 Free Agent Primer: NL Central

The Central provided three of five National League playoff teams this year including the Cubs, who ultimately lost to New York in the NLCS. There is a sharp break in the Central, however, as the top three teams not only were dominant this year, but are in good position to stay there for years to come and the bottom two are as far away from contention as any teams in baseball.

Chicago Cubs
Free Agents: Trevor Cahill, Chris Denorfia, Dexter Fowler, Dan Haren, Tommy Hunter, Austin Jackson, Jason Motte, Fernando Rodney
Needs: An outfielder who can get on base
The Cubs had the best pitching staff in the NL last year and losing Haren likely isn’t going to change that much. The important thing is that Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, and Kyle Hendricks will be around for another shot. Out of the bullpen, the Cubs are set to lose Rodney, Motte, and Hunter, but they should be able to maintain these losses, considering only Motte played a significant role. Losing the baggage that comes with Rodney will probably be more of a relief than anything else.

In the outfield, the Cubs are set to lose Fowler, Jackson, and Denorfia, with Fowler being the killer. He was a well rounded player with 17 home runs and 20 steals in his best year yet and is set to make bank in the free agent market at 29 years old. The Cubs could use that big NLCS money to retain him, but they may be better off trying to get a new speedy on base threat to bat in front of Kris Bryant and the rest of the new murderers row. Another option could be moving Kyle Schwarber to an AL team while he is at his greatest value to fill the two open outfield positions, but that seems like a long shot.

Cincinnati Reds
Free Agents: Sean Marshall, Manny Parra, Brayan Pena
Needs: To finish the fire sale
The Reds didn’t take to the rebuild as well as the Brewers did, retaining big name and big money stars Brandon Phillips, Aroldis Chapman, Jay Bruce, and Todd Frazier. Marshall is an interesting case as his contract is coming off the books, but he only pitched 24.1 innings during his three year deal and none in 2015. Pena and Parra, a part time catcher and part time reliever respectively, shouldn’t be big losses either way, but Chapman would have been worth a lot more in July than he is now. Teams tend to vastly over spend at the deadline and this year was no different, but the Reds asking price was apparently astronomical as they retained all their fan favorites.

It is never popular to trade off players of the caliber mentioned above, but if the Reds don’t do it now, they will only prolong their misery. They will have to center this build around the gigantic contract owed to Joey Votto (min. $174M over the next nine years), but otherwise the focus should be on their younger generation of Billy Hamilton, Eugenio Suarez, and Anthony DeSclafani rather than their current All-Stars Phillips, Chapman, and Frazier.

Milwaukee Brewers
Free Agents: Kyle Lohse
Needs: Patience
The Brewers realized before the break that things weren’t going the way they would prefer and did an incredible job shedding salary and future free agents as only Lohse was left without at least an option for 2016. In the purge, Aramis Ramirez, Jonathan Broxton, Carlos Gomez, Gerardo Parra, Michael Fiers, and Neal Cotts were all moved in major deals, dramatically lowering their payroll from $104M at the beginning of the year.

Lind’s option of $8M for 2016 is actually a very fair deal considering his 3.1 WAR in 2015, but for the Brewers, it is $8M that they don’t need on the books to rebuild for the future and he is likely to be signed and traded in an effort to restock.

The Brewers had one of the worst rotations in baseball last year and losing Lohse won’t help that (actually it could, but they’ll still need someone to take over those innings). Offensively, they weren’t much better, but in moving Fiers and Gomez, the Brewers have already shown that they are looking beyond 2016 so any players obtained need to be young ones coming in trade rather than through free agency. In addition to Lind, Jonathan Lucroy could be worth a considerable return while it’s unlikely that anyone would minimum $25M owed to Matt Garza for the next two years.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Free Agents: Antonio Bastardo, Joe Blanton, AJ Burnett, JA Happ, Corey Hart, Aramis Ramirez, Sean Rodriguez, Joakim Soria
Needs: Bullpen, rotation
The Pirates have to consider this season only a partial success as they saw an early exit from the playoffs for the third straight year. Unlike the Cardinals, the relievers that the Pirates stand to lose were of great importance and they will miss Bastardo, Blanton, and the short term rental Soria. They could probably re-sign these players for reasonable deals if they choose, or they could test the market elsewhere.

Even bigger than the bullpen losses will be Burnett and Happ as they were both dominant this year, particularly Happ down the stretch. Only Francisco Liriano and Gerrit Cole remain of what was a very impressive rotation for a time. If they want to keep up with the Cubs, who are considerably younger as a team, the Pirates will need to replenish their rotation.

The batters heading towards free agency, Ramirez, Hart, and Rodriguez, should not be missed much. All three were negative WAR players and Ramirez was more of a heartwarming coming home story. The others should be easily replaced internally and the Pirates should primarily focus on their pitching staff this offseason.

St. Louis Cardinals
Free Agents: Matt Belisle, Randy Choate, Jason Heyward, John Lackey, Mark Reynolds, Carlos Villanueva
Needs: Power and speed in the outfield
For the reigning Central champs, losing Heyward will be the biggest blow this off-season as he produced arguably his best season so for, setting career highs in both average (.293) and steals (23). In addition to his solid defense in right, the Cardinals will miss his aggressiveness on the basepaths as he accounted for 33% of the team’s steals. Even more importantly, Heyward and another free agent, Reynolds, tied for fourth on the team in home runs with 13. The Cardinals would be well served to find a little more thump behind Matt Carpenter, particularly considering the competition in the rest of the division.

The four relievers that St. Louis stands to lose threw 145.2 innings with the majority going to Villanueva. That being said, none of these were of extreme importance and the Cardinals’ top four relievers will all be returning after incredibly impressive seasons in 2015. They will likely have to add one more pitcher, but the bullpen and rotation should still be considered major strengths.