2015 Free Agent Primer: AL West

Given their .480 winning percentage as a division against the rest of the AL and their housing of two of the three worst teams in the American League, it is easy to look at the West as a weak division, but they did also produce two playoff teams this year. As a whole, the division shouldn’t be too hurt by outgoing free agents and is likely to be very active in acquiring new ones. With three teams expected to strongly compete for the division in 2016, this should be an interesting offseason out West.

Houston Astros
Free Agents: Scott Kazmir, Oliver Perez, Chad Qualls, Colby Rasmus, Tony Sipp, Joe Thatcher
Needs: Third base, bullpen
The Astros will likely try to re-sign Rasmus, who is in the middle tier of outfield prospects, but they shouldn’t ming losing out on the rest of the group. Thatcher and Sipp each pitched well and regularly out of the bullpen, but neither are irreplaceable. Of course, the bullpen was already a point of weakness and if it was better to begin with, it might have been Houston in the ALCS instead of Kansas City. There is no question that the Astros starting rotation is already the envy of most of the league and won’t miss Kazmir much, who pitched poorly in his short time with the team.

Possibly the biggest issue for the Astros is improving both the defense and offense at third base. While the Astros as a team hit a lot of home runs and Luis Valbuena is included in this, there is more to scoring runs than hitting them out of the park. A solid defensive player at third (Valbuena was worth -5.5 runs compared to the average third baseman on defense). The best part about the Astros, however, is how young the team is. Jake Marisnick, Carlos Correa, and George Springer only saw limited action last year and all were impressive one way or another and should all be better in 2016. It shouldn’t take much outside improvement to keep the Astros competing at the level they achieved this season.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Free Agents: David DeJesus (option yet to be exercised), David Freese, Matt Joyce, Mat Latos, David Murphy, Shane Victorino, Wesley Wright
Needs: Offense from anywhere other than 1B, CF and RF
Most of the Angels free agent losses will be from ill-advised late year trades (and one free agent) in an attempt to bolster the offense enough to surpass the Astros in the Wild Card hunt. Since this worked out extremely poorly, don’t look for them to retain the services of Victorino, Latos, Murphy, or DeJesus. In addition, Matt Joyce was very possibly the worst player on the team all things considered and Wesley Wright pitched just 5.2 innings. Legitimately, the only player the Angels will miss in this group is Freese, who should do well in free agency as many teams look to improve their defense at third base (kind of like the Astros).

This doesn’t mean the problem is fixed. Beyond Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Kole Calhoun who are all exceptional hitters, two of the three being future Hall of Famers, the lineup was atrocious. In addition, they can’t expect all three players to play in at least 157 games in consecutive years, so even in the outfield depth is extremely important. The Angels still have a great base and shouldn’t be thinking about starting over, but this is also not a problem that can be fixed with a couple big money free agents. Instead, the Angels should try to take some more risks (like those acquiring three mediocre outfielders at the trade deadline) and hope that they get career years from some undervalued players.

Oakland Athletics
Free Agents: Edwas Mujica, Barry Zito
Needs: Third base, bullpen
Contracts are overrated. The only players with guaranteed money for the Athletics for even 2016 are Billy Butler, Coco Crisp, and Sean Doolittle, and two of those three should generally be considered poor decisions. In a similar vein, losing Mujica and Zito shouldn’t hurt the Athletics too badly. Despite their last place finish, the A’s were a far under producing team that should be much better. They return their entire starting rotation, except Kazmir, that was solid throughout the year and should feel comfortable with that.

In fact, despite the fact that they finished last in the AL, their run differential was better than three other teams and they have a lot of exciting players including Josh Reddick, Billy Burns, and Stephen Vogt on offense. Considering the surprise runs in 2015 by teams like Houston and Minnesota, it wouldn’t be the craziest thing that’s ever happened if the Athletics actually contended for awhile next year. That being said, they do have a few players in their final year of team control including Reddick, Ike Davis, Sam Fuld, Jesse Chavez, and Craig Gentry, and they will have to decide quickly this offseason whether they want to try for the division, or to get the most out of these players. Reddick and Chavez in particular could be worth quite the prospect haul if Oakland wants to get the most out of them (which has been their preference in the past), but without them, any dreams of a finish above fourth in 2016 will disappear.

Seattle Mariners
Free Agents: Joe Beimel, Franklin Gutierrez, Hisashi Iwakuma
Needs: First base, outfield, bullpen
Iwakuma will be the biggest loss to the Mariners as he was largely the equal of the great Felix Hernandez this year in the M’s rotation. However, unlike the first three teams in the West, the Mariners aren’t just a few pieces from contention, so it really isn’t that big of a deal. In addition, Hernandez is signed through 2019 and the young Taijuan Walker looks like he could be very impressive in the future. With Roenis Elias, James Paxton, and Michael Montgomery each pitching decently this year and under control for years, replacing Iwakuma shouldn’t be a priority.

Instead, there should be focus on replacing Franklin Gutierrez and Austin Jackson, who was traded mid-season. Both were incredible defensive outfielders and should command some interest in free agency. As good as Nelson Cruz is at the plate, he is almost unusable in the outfield, changing this from an area of strength for Seattle into an extreme weakness. In addition, Logan Morrison (dealt to the Rays yesterday) and Jesus Montero were not the answer at first and Mark Trumbo, who is heading into his third arbitration season, isn’t either. Of course, any players the Mariners get should be under team control for long term as unlike heading into 2015, they don’t appear to be heading into contention in 2016.

Texas Rangers
Free Agents: Yovani Gallardo, Colby Lewis, Mike Napoli, Ross Ohlendorf, Drew Stubbs, Will Venable
Needs: Outfield, starting pitching
The Rangers were definitely a surprise this year, coming from behind to win the division after the Astros lead most of the way. While they stand to lose a few players through free agency, none will leave glaring holes. Napoli only played 35 games this year, Stubbs 27, and Venable 37, with each of those three coming over in the second half of the season. With the Angels footing the bill for Josh Hamilton, Shin-Soo Choo in right, and budding star Delino Deshields, the Rangers could use a new fourth outfielder, but while DHing Choo or Hamilton would likely save some runs on defense, they also have solid players at first and DH with Mitch Moreland and Prince Fielder. In general, the Rangers offense is pretty set.

Where the Rangers could be hurt is in the starting rotation. Gallardo and Lewis each had fantastic years for the Rangers, but even here it may not be that big of a deal. Cole Hamels is expensive, but he’ll be around for up to four more years. Martin Perez wasn’t fantastic, but his peripherals looked good (3.40 FIP compared to a 4.46 ERA) in his return from Tommy John surgery, and he is just 24. The same isn’t true about Nick Martinez, who is a year older and vastly outperformed his expectations, but he is still a solid fourth or fifth starter. Considering that Hamels and Perez only accounted for 26 total starts in 2015, they should be able to pick up much of that slack next season.