The AL East was expected to be a dogfight between the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays this year. Instead, the Baltimore Orioles shocked them all and ran away with the division. So how exactly did they go about making everyone look so stupid for overlooking them?
Preseason Prediction: The Orioles face a pretty tall task if they’re going to contend for an AL East division title. They could certainly make a run at it, with even a middle-of-the-road pitching staff. However, with the Boston Red Sox coming off of a fantastic year, the New York Yankees spending crazy money, the Tampa Bay Rays having absurd pitching depth, and the Toronto Blue Jays being able to keep up with Baltimore’s offense, it won’t be easy. They’re at least a .500 team easy, but they may not advance much further than a wild card round. (Randy Holt, March 18th)
What Went Right: The Orioles were the brave souls that finally decided to take mercy on blackballed Nelson Cruz and were richly reward as Cruz smashed a MLB-leading 40 homers. Adding Cruz to the middle of the order with the league’s most anonymous superstar, Adam Jones, and the Orioles ended the year with one of the top offenses in all of baseball. But it wasn’t just their bats that led to 96 wins. Their rotation is oft derided for being ace-less, but they did see Chris Tillman and Wei-Yin Chen both take a big step forward and top prospect Kevin Gausman finally secure a rotation spot. Miguel Gonzalez wildly outperforming his FIP didn’t hurt either. Of course, they also had their typical lockdown bullpen thanks in no small part to Zach Britton emerging as a top-notch closer.
What Went Wrong: The cornerstone of the O’s was supposed to be Manny Machado. He was having a very nice season but ended up turning into a reckless rage monster before ultimately blowing his knee out, again. His burgeoning temper problems and injury issues have cast real doubt over whether or not he’ll ever become the franchise player everyone thought he would. While the Cruz signing worked out well for Baltimore, they didn’t have the same Midas touch with Ubaldo Jimenez. Instead of emerging as the frontline starter they sought, Jimenez predictably struggled with his control and health. By the end of the year, he wasn’t even included on Baltimore’s playoff roster. He’s still got three years left on his four-year, $50 million contracts, so good luck with that. The other big blow to the team was losing Matt Wieters to Tommy John surgery. Looking at what happened with those three players, it really is a testament to Buck Showalter that the O’s still managed to win 96 games.
Most Surprising Player: As a 31-year old journeyman, Steve Pearce barely seemed like a guy worthy of a roster spot in the majors. In fact, the Orioles released him at one point back in April. They re-signed him just a few days after that and somehow ended up with a completely different player. With 21 homers and a .404 wOBA, Pearce somehow morphed into a nearly 5-win player in just 102 games. His emergence, whether it is sustainable or not, was a huge reason that Baltimore was able to weather the loss of Machado and the wildly disappointing year from Chris Davis.
Most Disappointing Player: Speaking of Davis, he just completely fell apart after his MVP-caliber breakout campaign in 2013. Sure, the power was still there with Davis running into 26 dingers. While nobody expected 53 homers again, that’s still a big drop off for the slugger. The more concerning problem though was that Davis finished the season below the Mendoza line in terms of batting average and just barely managed to finish with a .300 OBP. As if that weren’t bad enough, Davis missed the final weeks of the regular season and the entire postseason as a result of a 25-game suspension for testing positive for amphetamine use.
The Future: While the Orioles have to be disappointed after getting ousted by the buzzsaw that is the Kansas City Royals, they still appear to be in good shape to make another playoff run in 2015. Nelson Cruz is their only major free agent, so the roster will be largely intact. That’s a roster that will include Matt Wieters and Manny Machado returning from injury at some point and hopefully a resurgent Chris Davis as well. While Steve Pearce is likely to get whacked over the head by the regression stick, the continued development of Tillman, Gausman and Schoop should have Baltimore poised to repeat as AL East champions next season.
