The Washington Nationals and San Francisco Giants are set to start their National League Division Series today, and this NLDS should be a good one.
The Nationals finished with the best record in the NL and have been on a tear, while the Giants limped into the postseason before destroying the Pirates in the Wild Card game. On paper, the Nats have the decided advantage. But if recent history has taught us anything, it’s to never count the Giants out in the playoffs.
Here’s a list of five things to watch for in this series:
Will Bochy out-manage Williams?
If the Giants have an advantage over the Nationals, it’s their manager. Bruce Bochy has solidified his reputation as one of the premiere tacticians in the game and has two rings to back it up, while Matt Williams is in his first year on the job. Williams has done an excellent job this year in leading the Nationals to the NL’s best record and is no slouch, but you have to wonder if Bochy has the tactical advantage based on experience alone. It’ll be interesting to watch the two match up on pitching changes, lineup changes, and strategy. Bochy has made some brilliant moves in the postseason before, though, and that history gives him and the Giants the advantage here.
Will bench depth decide the series?
The Nationals’ bench has much more depth than the Giants’ and it’s not particularly close. The Nats can trot out Ryan Zimmerman in key late-inning situations with confidence, while the Giants can call on… Juan Perez? Joaquin Arias? Lack of depth has plagued the Giants all year and injuries have taken their toll. Guys who should be backups are in the starting lineup, and the bench has suffered for it. The Nationals are a much deeper team and hold a definite edge over the Giants there. One Giant to keep an eye on, though: former first round pick Gary Brown, whose speed may make a difference on the bases in the late innings.
Which starting rotation will take control?
Top to bottom, the Nationals have arguably the best pitching staff in the game. Their starters posted a 2.25 ERA in September (best in the league) and one of their best, Tanner Roark, probably is going to be pushed out of the playoff rotation- now that is depth. The Nats clearly hold the edge over the Giants here, even though the Giants have been getting Cy Young-level starts from Jake Peavy and Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner has to wait until game 3 to make an appearance, so the Giants somewhat surprisingly are going with Tim Hudson in game 2. Peavy vs. Stephen Strasburg, Hudson vs. Jordan Zimmerman, and Bumgarner vs. Doug Fister are the matchups for the first three games and aside from game 3, the Nationals seem to have the advantage in each. Their rotation depth might help them take a stranglehold on the series early.
Will the Giants’ postseason experience give them an advantage?
I guess it depends on whether or not you believe in intangibles. The Giants have won seven straight playoff elimination games dating back to 2012 and a good-sized chunk of their roster has either one or two World Series rings collecting dust somewhere. The phrase “battle-tested” has been thrown around a lot when describing the Giants, and it fits. They’re a veteran team with a track record of postseason success, and know what it takes to get to the end. Now, does any of that actually matter? Hard to say with any certainty. The Nationals are clearly a more talented team on paper and that can’t be overlooked. But more talented teams have collapsed in the playoffs, which leads us to the next question…
Do the Nationals have balls?
Tim Hudson was a bit more diplomatic when he seemingly questioned Washington’s manhood, saying they were an extremely talented team but it took more than talent to win the whole thing; it took “stuff between your legs.” The implication is pretty clear: talent will take you far in the postseason, but you need to have a little something extra to fight through doubt and uncertainty and get over the hump. The last time the Nationals were in the playoffs they blew a golden opportunity to advance to the NLCS, and that can stick with a team either in a negative way (waiting for a shoe to drop) or a positive way (using it as fuel to go further). Hudson seemed to imply that the Nationals may not have the fortitude to deal with past or present failures, and chances are they’ll be amped to prove him wrong. It’s never a good idea to give your opponent extra motivation heading into a playoff series, and Hudson may have done just that.
