It happens every year, MLB teams desperate to inject some life into their World Series hopes throw big money at players and almost immediately come to regret it. No matter how smart we think MLB front offices should be, they continue to make mistake after mistake. Sometimes it can’t be helped, but sometimes it can. These nine players are the players GMs should know better than to invest heavily into but probably will anyway. When these guys turn into free agent busts, don’t say that the team that signed them wasn’t warned.
Asdrubal Cabrera, IF
As a two-time All-Star shortstop, Cabrera would seem to have the credentials of a quality free agent signing, but it poses as more of a trap for his suitors. Cabrera’s days as a shortstop need to be put to an end as his defensive metrics, which were never very good, have been in steady decline. He’s now reached a point where he’s a major liability in the field and his bat no longer good enough to cover it up. With an OBP of .299 in 2013 and .307 in 2014, Cabrera’s only real asset is the modest pop in his bat. For a team looking for a modestly priced short-term solution at second base, Cabrera will be just fine, but if someone tries to pay him like a former All-Star and use him as their starting shortstop, they are going to be sorely disappointed.
Hanley Ramirez, IF
Speaking of players who shouldn’t be playing shortstop anymore, here is Hanley Ramirez. Over the last few seasons, Hanley has rated somewhere between a bad shortstop and a waking nightmare at shortstop. The problem is that there have been rumors this offseason that Ramirez is only interested in signing with a team that will let him remain at short rather than moving him to third or the outfield. The other problem with Ramirez is that he is in position to be paid like an elite player, but he doesn’t usually play like one. He had a tremendous 2013 season, but his power just hasn’t played at that crazy .293 ISO level. Last year, he had just a .165 ISO. Without that power, his bat is only above average and, if he changes positions, won’t play up nearly as much. We haven’t even talked about Ramirez’s chronic injury issues and supposed work ethic issues yet either. Yeah, this could be a very, very big and very, very expensive for some poor team.
Nelson Cruz, OF/DH
Cruz clubbed 40 homers in 2014 to put him in the top of the free agent market. It was only the second time that Cruz had breached the 30-homer mark, which certainly suggests that it is a bit of a fluke. Cruz has always had big power, but he’s struggled to surpass 30 dingers because he’s struggled to stay on the field. At age 34, he isn’t going to have an easier time staying healthy. He’s going to have an even less easy time if he signs with a team that plans on using him in the field, where he is a major liability, on a regular basis. It should also be concerning that only 12 of his homers came in the second half of the 2014 season and was paired with a .769 OPS.
Mike Morse, OF/1B/DH
He can’t field and he can’t stay healthy, but he sure did have some big hits the postseason. Those postseason heroics and the 31 homers he hit the one season he played full-time are all his agent is going to need to sucker some poor GM into handing Morse a lucrative multi-year deal. Some team is going to view him as a cheaper alternative to the aforementioned Nelson Cruz only to find out that even the cheaper version of a potential bust is still a potential bust itself.
Yasmany Tomas, OF
This isn’t Tomas’ fault that he’s on this list. He can blame Jose Abreu and Rusney Castillo. The immense success of Abreu this season has set the Cuban free agent market on fire. Teams are tripping over themselves to sign the next big Cuban superstar, which is why an inferior talent like Castillo got $72.5 million. Tomas could very well be the next big thing out of Cuba and as a result he’s likely going to get a $100+ million contract. The only way that contract is justified is if Tomas develops into a perennial All-Star. There is reason to think that he could exceed that bar for success, but it also gives him very little margin for error and ending up as a modest bust.
Edinson Volquez, SP
C’mon, MLB general managers. This should be easy. None of you should be fooled by Volquez’s 2014 season. The control-challenged starter cut back on the walks (and also the strikeouts) this year to post 3.04 ERA. There is that matter of the 4.15 FIP and his big home-road splits (.283 wOBA at home, .323 wOBA on the road), however. Those giant red flags and Volquez’s general struggles over the course of his career should be enough to prevent GMs from investing much in him, but just wait until we get late into the offseason and teams start getting desperate for rotation depth. That’s when mistakes happen.
Jake Peavy, SP
Jake Peavy is a World Series hero two years running now, not to mention a cult hero for his unique post-championship purchases. What he’s not, however, is a front-end starter. What he is a solid veteran with declining velocity, a declining strikeout rate and an increasing walk rate. Those aren’t good things for a 33-year old hurler with a lengthy history of shoulder and elbow problems. Peavy may not turn into a bust right away, but if any team is daring enough to sign him for more than two years could really come to regret the latter part of that contract.
James Shields, SP
Big Game James didn’t exactly live up to his moniker in the World Series, but it isn’t likely to dent his free agent value much. Shields is in line to cash in as a the consolation prize for whichever teams lose out on Scherzer and Lester. That might work out for a year or two, but there has to be major concern about Shields’ ability to sustain high level performance. One of his selling points is that he’s been an incredible workhorse having pitched 200+ innings eight years in a row and 227+ innings each of the last four seasons. That selling point should also serve as a caveat emptor as one has to think that workload is going to catch up to him sooner or later. With Shields about to turn 33 and coming off two straight seasons of seeing his strikeout rate sharply decline, it might have already caught him.
Zach Duke, RP
A three-year, $15 million contract isn’t a big deal for most players, but it is for a left-handed specialist reliever. That is what Duke just got from the White Sox yesterday. It is quite the commitment for a guy that is coming off a massive outlier season. Through 2010, Duke was a failed starter who was comically inept at missing bats, never posting a K/9 better than 5.43 in a full season. From there until 2013, he was a replacement level swingman who still couldn’t miss bats. Lo and behold, he magically became a strikeout machine in 2014 with a 11.35 K/9. Maybe he made some big change and became a different pitcher, but would you be willing to bet $15 million that he can sustain that change? Right now, Duke is the leader in the clubhouse for the biggest potential bust of the offseason.
