From the perspective of the Oakland Athletics, the trade that sent Josh Donaldson to the Toronto Blue Jays for a package of players headlined by Brett Lawrie on Friday night represents a much more disappointing picture than for the other club involved in the deal. Despite that this is the typical way in which Billy Beane operates, in addition to the fact that Donaldson was in for a huge payraise in the near future, there’s something about trading the most consistent offensive player, perhaps the top player on the team overall, that leaves a bad taste in your mouth.
The package they received in return for Donaldson was a solid, if unspectacular, one. They received four players, headlined by Lawrie and Franklin Barreto, the latter of which Beane and the front office hope is the solution to Oakland’s shortstop-of-the-future quandary that they are currently staring at after dealing Addison Russell in the Jeff Samardzija trade last summer. The focal point for the immediate future, however, is that of Lawrie. Though his numbers are at a similar point as Donaldson’s coming off of his age 24 seasons, there are much less encouraging signs that have led to serious questions about his future in the bigs.
Brett Lawrie has done anything but develop into the blue chip prospect he was a prospect with the Milwaukee Brewers and then with the Blue Jays, following the Shaun Marcum trade. Injuries have played a tremendous role in limiting his production, however. His first three “full” years in the big leagues have featured game totals of 125, 107, and 70 in the last three seasons, respectively. As such, his production has been quite limited.
Lawrie burst onto the scene in 2011, appearing in 43 games and notching a 2.5 WAR in that small sample size, setting up those large expectations for the future. He failed to equal that WAR total in 2012, despite playing in 125 games. His defense was a large part of what made him an early success, with decent enough offensive numbers to back it up, including a .324 on-base percentage in 2012. Those numbers declined in 2013, though, and by 2014 he had a WAR of just 1.7 and reached base at a clip of just .301.
There are some positives, though. For one, Lawrie does play very strong defense. In surrendering Josh Donaldson in the trade, the A’s gave up one of the game’s premium defensive players. Lawrie had a 14.9 UZR per 150 innings in 2014, a very strong figure. He also demonstrates an ability to make contact very regularly, though you’d like to see them more of the line drive variety, and doesn’t strike out a ton. He does have some pop as well, although he hasn’t managed to eclipse a dozen home runs at the Major League level.
There are questions about his mental makeup as well, perhaps even to a larger degree that his physical issues. Some question his attitude and whether or not there are issues with that type of mentality in the locker room. Some also take issue with his style of play in that he goes all out on every single play, despite a riddled injury history (if this sounds familiar it’s because it happens on a larger scale with Bryce Harper). Nonetheless, there isn’t as quite as much substance to back up that type of talk, at least to this point.
At the end of the day, the prospect return is encouraging enough, even if Barreto doesn’t stick at short, that the wild card element in Lawrie is worth the risk. However, it is important to note that he is just that: a wild card. He’s a very solid fielder with a potentially above-average bat, but he has to demonstrate that consistently first. Perhaps the move away from the turf into Toronto is a step in the right direction, as Lawrie has already pointed out. Ultimately, the A’s don’t know what they’re going to get out of him. The upside is still there and he could very well turn it around at a very young age, but can he do it? That’s the question and the answer is quite a ways away.
