First, I would like to say congratulations to Derek Jeter on reaching the fabled 3,000-hit milestone and for doing it in such dramatic fashion. It is truly a great accomplishment in a great career.
Second, I would like to say… yaaaaaaaaaaawwwwwwwwn.
No disrespect Captain Jetes, but waiting for you to reach 3,000 hits is like waiting for the sun to come up in that we know it is going to happen barring the Rapture finally coming to pass (we’re still waiting, Harold Camping). This wasn’t like our last new member of the 3,000-hit club, Craig Biggio, who was also an outstanding player, but it wasn’t a given that he was going to stay healthy and productive long enough to actually get to 3,000. But Jeter? His membership in that club was the very definition of inevitable.
Give me some drama. Give me some anticipation. Give me some uncertainty and some high stakes.
Becoming the 28th 3,000-hit man is nice, but it lacks a certain je ne sais quio, other than 3,000 being a nice shiny round number. Heck, collecting 3,000 hits isn’t even a guaranteed ticket to Cooperstown (just ask Rafael Palmeiro, who is going to be spending the next few decades waiting by a phone that isn’t ever going to ring).
Now 3,316 hits and becoming tenth all-time in career hits? There is something worth getting glued to the TV over. 3,316 isn’t a particularly memorable number, but being on a list that includes only Pete Rose, Ty Cobb, Hank Aaron, Stan Musial, Tris Speaker, Cap Anson, Honus Wagner, Carl Yastrzemski and Paul Molitor elevates a guy to legendary levels.
It isn’t like we don’t know that Derek Jeter is a tremendous player, because we’ve been around to see him play. To our generation, there is no doubt that he will be in the Hall of Fame and probably on the first ballot. But what about the generations that grow up only knowing him because his number is retired in Yankee Stadium?
When my kids look back at Jeter’s resume, they’ll be impressed by 3,000 hits, but they’ll also see a guy who is probably going to finish his supposedly legendary career with an OPS under .800, no MVP awards and about 1.4 million Google results about how all his Gold Glove awards were a total joke. I’m sorry, but that doesn’t scream “one of the best players of his generation.” But you know what does? A big shiny “top ten in hits all-time.” Boom. That’s a legend right there.
Now for the fun part, can Jeter actually get there?
Thanks to his outburst today, Derek is sitting on 3,003 hits, meaning he need 313 hits to pass Eddie Collins for tenth all-time, an achievable but simultaneously non-guarenteed achievement.
Let’s estimate this conservatively and say Jeter collects another 80 hits this season, given that he hasn’t been healthy or particularly good this year. That puts him at 3,083 hits heading into 2012, essentially giving him the final two seasons of his contract (the guaranteed ones) and the final two years of his thirties to rack up 233 hits. That wouldn’t have been a problem for Jeter in his prime since he has so many 200+ hit seasons under his belt, but his advanced age makes this a bit of a gamble. Even an old guy can average 117 hits playing everyday over two seasons… assuming he can stay healthy that is. Jeter has been remarkably durable throughout his career, but even his magical Yankee powers can’t stave off injury forever, as we’ve seen this season.
And let’s not assume that Jeter is a lock to stay an everyday player. Despite his lofty status with the Yankees, he has been in sharp decline of late. His 2010 campaign was the worst of his career, and he has been even worse this season. If his skills continue to deteriorate, it is not beyond the scope of reality that he could find himself playing less than full-time in 2012 and possibly even get shifted into more of a bench/utility role by 2013 which would make it real hard for him to reach 3,316.
But it doesn’t have to stop there.
Let’s turn our assumption on their head for a minute and consider what would happen if Jeter actually bounces back the rest of this season and keeps his career ticking along as an above average player. Instead of assuming he gets hurt and/or bad the next two seasons, he could continue his career trend and crank out 170 or so hits in each of those years. That would send him racing past Collins for tenth on the hits list and headed for more. He’d have passed Molitor for ninth and just squeaked past Yaz and for eighth and seventh, respectively. Then the milestone watch really cranks into high gear. Will Jeter play another to season? He’d only need a handful of hits to surpass Anson for sixth all-time and then a few months more to jump over Speaker to enter the top five.
Sign me up for that! I don’t want to see Jeter pass arbitrary milestones, I want to see if he can move into the same level as all of those legends and then see how many of them he can knock off. That, ladies and gentlemen, is the kind of drama that is worth watching every step of the way.
