A month ago, nobody would have ever guessed that Tampa would even be involved in the post-season but a big September (and a horrible Red Sox collapse) later and the Rays are poised to be the Cinderella of the playoff ball. However, with the defending AL Champion Texas Rangers standing in there way, could the clock already be about to hit midnight for the Rays?
The Rays will in if… good pitching beats good hitting. One thing the Rays aren’t going to do is outslug the Rangers. On this season, Texas scored 855 runs, the second-most in the majors, while Tampa mustered just 707, the lowest total out of the post-season qualifiers in the American AND the National League. So don’t let the heroic rally and dramatic homers of the final night of the season fool you into thinking that the Rays can win if this thing turns into a slugfest. Evan Longoria is great, but the rest of the lineup is merely average, if that. Meanwhile Texas has a lineup that is scary from top to bottom. They’ve got power, patience and even some some speed which will make them a tough match-up for even the best rotation in the AL. Good thing Tampa is the proud owner of the best rotation in the AL, in fact, the Rays allowed the fewest runs in the American League this season. David Price is the staff ace and “Big Game” James Shields is one of the more underappreciated pitchers in baseball. Behind them is Jeremy Hellickson, who might well be the AL Rookie of the Year. If there is a trio of starting pitchers in the AL that can keep Texas’ offense from exploding, those are the three.
Tampa Bay’s secret weapon is… not really such a secret any more. Even with their fine top three starters, Joe Maddon is making the bold move to start rookie Matt Moore in the opening game of the ALDS. Moore is possibly the top pitching prospect in all of baseball, but this start will be just his SECOND MLB START EVER. Moore was electric in his only other start, fanning 11 batters in five innings, so he could very well wind up being the difference maker in the series, especially since he has the advantage on Texas in that they’ve never even seen him before and likely don’t even hae much video to study either.
The chink in Tampa Bay’s armor is… exhaustion. The Rays’ miraculous run into the playoffs has had them playing do-or-die baseball for a month straight now. At some point, that is going to take a toll physically, mentally or both. You can already see some of that settling in as supposed ace David Price has actually not been good at all his last few starts. While the move to start Moore might be a brilliant strategy, it also reeks of desperation for a team that has exhausted its rotation and bullpen in the last week. Maybe they will continue their amazing “team of destiny” magic, but it seems more likely that Tampa has already blown their wad.
The Rangers will in if… their starting pitching gets hot. As good as their lineup is, the Rangers still need their rotation to step up their game. Staff ace C.J. Wilson should be fine, but after he goes, all bets are off. The rest of their likely playoff rotation, Derek Holland, Colby Lewis and Matt Harrison, have been all over the map in the second half. Harrison was actually temporarily skipped in the rotation for a few weeks and Lewis, despite his heroics last off-season, was a question mark to even make the post-season rotation. Both seem to be getting back on track lately, and they will need to stay there to survive in a short series. The real onus could be on Holland though. He hit a rough patch in August, but he also had a few weeks in July where he threw two consecutive complete game shutouts. If Holland and one of either Lewis or Harrison have things going right for them, they can turn this somewhat questionable rotation into a real force that could make short work of the wimpy Tampa lineup.
Texas’ secret weapon is… their bullpen. In a way, the Rangers don’t actually need their rotation to shutdown the Rays so much as hold them in check for five or six innings. Thanks to some savvy trade deadline moves, the Rangers added elite setup men Mike Adams, Koji Uehara and Mike Gonzalez in front of lockdown closer Neftali Felix. Plus, they also have moved All-Star starter Alexi Ogando to the pen for this series, a role he has been excellent in previously. For all intents and purposes, that is a relief corps that can basically turn any game into a five-inning affair. Tampa best score early and often this series becaue they won’t be mounting any seven-run comebacks against this bullpen.
The chink in Texas’ armor is… no more antlers. Last season, Texas was the goofy group of upstarts that crashed into the post-season with a loose attitude, highlighted by their trademark “antlers” pose. But that was last year. This year, the Rangers have to deal with a little thing called “expectations.” Any success they had in 2010 was just gravy, but in 2011 their fans and front office want results. That kind of pressure could make things a little uncomfortable in the Texas dugout, something they aren’t used to. One player to watch, in particular, will be Josh Hamilton who infamously hit .190 last post-season. If he struggles out of the gate in the ALDS, that will only increase the scrutiny on him and possibly trigger another playoff no-show for the man who is the heart of the Ranger offensive attack.
