After by far the finest year of his career in 2014, Phil Hughes won’t be leaving Minnesota any time soon. Hughes agreed to a three-year, $42 million extension that will be added to the two years remaining on his current three-year, $24 million deal, meaning that he’ll be staying with the Twins until 2019.
The extension, first reported by Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News, guarantees Hughes a total of $58 million over the next five seasons. It seems like a fair deal on the surface, especially considering new Twins teammate Ervin Santana just got $55 million guaranteed over for years.
I think there’s a little bit of risk here for the Twins – they’re paying Hughes based on an incredible 2014 season, and while I wouldn’t be shocked if he repeats those efforts in 2015 and beyond, there’s a lot of undue faith in that one year. He pitched a career high 209 2/3 innings, and shrank his walk rate to a ridiculous degree. If that walk rate balloons, is he still a six win pitcher? I doubt it. Is he even still a four win pitcher? Eh, maybe, but 2014 was the first time he was worth more than even two and a half wins.
The contract’s average value isn’t gross overpay – he’s getting an average of $11.6 million per year, which is fine and less than whatever the qualifying offer will end up at in each of the next five seasons. I just don’t think it was necessary. Hughes will be rolling into his 30s, and the risk of an injury will increase with the more mileage he puts on his arm. It would be a lot easier for the Twins to eat one year of the original three year deal if he got hurt this spring, as opposed to eating one year and then looking down the road at four more seasons under contract in front of him.
When all is said and done, though, I’d rather pay Hughes what essentially amounts to six years and $66 million than paying Santana $55 million over four years (possibly more if an option vests) or paying Ricky Nolasco four years and $48 million. The extension for Hughes might not be ideal, but it’s not a disaster.
