Trevor Story DENVER, CO – APRIL 08: during opening day at Coors Field on April 8, 2016 in Denver, Colorado.

Trevor Story’s hot start for Rockies is historic, but ultimately trivial

By now, way too many words have been written about the white-hot start of Colorado Rockies rookie shortstop Trevor Story. Story has homered seven times in the first six games of his MLB career, the first time anyone has ever done that. But while Story’s start is truly historic, it’s likely not predictive of much of anything, and will just go down as another piece of trivia.

Firstly, a bit of trivia: Before Story’s run of homers, which player hit the most home runs in his first six career games? Well, five players hit four dingers in their first six games — current MLB stars Yasmani Grandal and Yasiel Puig, immortal ex-Met Mike Jacobs, and the 1980s duo of Sam Horn and Luis Medina. The latter three players all flamed out rather quickly, while the jury is still out on the careers of Grandal and Puig.

But Story’s streak also happened at the start of the year, which is pretty cool. What about home runs in a team’s first six games of the season? No one has ever hit seven until Story, but a couple have hit six and even more have hit five. The three players with six: Willie Mays, Mike Schmidt, and Larry Walker. That’s some good company. Some of the players with five: Barry Bonds, Lou Brock, Adrian Gonzalez, Juan Gonzalez, Luis Gonzalez, Ken Griffey Jr, Evan Longoria, Mark McGwire, Alex Rodriguez, and Justin Upton. Again, more good company!

The weird thing about Story’s hot start is how solely homer-based it’s been. He has seven homers in 28 plate appearances… and just two other hits, a pair of singles. He has no doubles and no triples — it’s been homer or bust. Story has also only walked once this year, and has struck out eight times. So in those 28 plate appearances, he *hasn’t* put the ball in play (16 times) than he has (12). That takes skill. For some context, reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper had 654 plate appearances last season, and didn’t put the ball in play 297 times — less than half the time. Even in Barry Bonds’ ungodly 2004 season, he didn’t put the ball in play 318 times in 618 plate appearances, barely more than half. And that’s one of the greatest seasons in baseball history!

Another weird fact about Story’s streak is that even though he has seven homers, his offensive statistics aren’t the best in baseball. Going into Tuesday’s action, Story is hitting .333/.357/1.111. His slugging percentage is tops in baseball, but his edge over fellow rookie Tyler White of the Astros is just 20 points — and White only has three home runs on the season, emphasizing that there’s more than one way to build up a high slugging percentage. And because Story isn’t really hitting aside from homering and isn’t walking either, his batting average and on-base percentage are suffering compared to the rest of the league. Story’s average is tied for 41st in baseball, and his OBP is tied for 83rd.

Put it all in a blender, and you’ve got a guy in Story who leads the league in homers (with no one else in the league launching more than three bombs thus far this season), but is fourth in wOBA (.598) and tied for ninth in wRC+ (243). That’s incredible.

Here’s something else that’s pretty ridiculous: Story has an isolated power (ISO) of .778. Only 15 players, excluding Story, have a higher slugging percentage. And another thing — Story can go 0 for his next 46 and he’d still have a .405 slugging percentage, which was the league average last season. That’s one hell of a way to start your major league career.

But how long will Story’s historic streak continue? Story is more than halfway to Kevin Maas’ record of 12 homers in his first 30 career games. The record number of homers in a team’s first 10 games of the season is nine, held by Luis Gonzalez and Mike Schmidt. If Story homers twice over Colorado’s next four games, he’ll match that mark, and then this hot start will start turning from merely a good week into something truly historic.

About Joe Lucia

I hate your favorite team. I also sort of hate most of my favorite teams.

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