Setting odds for Ryan Braun’s possible landing spots

Two years ago, the idea of the Milwaukee Brewers trading Ryan Braun was ludicrous. Hell, even a year ago, trading Braun seemed like a pipe dream for Milwaukee, even as they started unloading every player with any positive value.

That was mainly due to his declining production and unwieldy contract, which when combined with his 2013 PED suspension and ongoing injury issues, created a player that no team would want to acquire at any cost.

Fast forward to 2016, and Ryan Braun is one of the most intriguing commodities on the trade market. Through 54 games in 2016, Braun is hitting .307/.367/.522 with 11 homers and five stolen bases. With more than one-third of the season completed, Braun is healthy and playing like he did from 2007-2012, when he was one of the National League’s best players.

Yes, Braun is now 32 and still owed something like $82 million through 2020 (including a $4 million buyout on a 2021 club option), but if he continues this level of production, that’s a steal, especially when you look at some of the other monstrous outfield contracts being paid across the league today.

So trading Braun seems like the next natural step for the 30-35, rebuilding Brewers. Luckily for Milwaukee, plenty of teams still fancy themselves as contenders, and plenty need offense. Who could be in the market? Let’s set some odds for each of the teams that could be in play for the 2007 NL Rookie of the Year and 2011 NL MVP.

Chicago White Sox: 8-to-1. The White Sox need another bat, and pretty desperately. Following Austin Jackson’s meniscus injury, they’re being forced to play Avisail Garcia in right field while starting a rotating cast of AAAA players (JB Shuck, Jerry Sands, something called a “Jason Coats”) at designated hitter. Chicago has also shown no hesitancy in eating money in trades, like they did when acquiring James Shields from the Padres earlier this month. The main issue that could impede a deal, however, is Chicago’s weak farm system.

With top prospect Tim Anderson now the team’s starting shortstop following the release of Jimmy Rollins, they would need to build a package around Carson Fulmer. And while that’s a strong start to a deal, it would fully devastate a farm system that was already weakened by this winter’s trade for Todd Frazier.

San Francisco Giants: 12-to-1. Hunter Pence’s hamstring injury has crippled the Giants outfield. San Francisco has also dealt with Angel Pagan missing time this season, but really, that’s something they’ve been dealing with since he signed his four-year extension with the club prior to the 2013 season. The Giants also have money coming off the books next year in Pagan, Jake Peavy, and Sergio Romo, so they could easily slot Braun in a corner alongside Pence and Denard Span in 2017 and not miss a beat.

So why aren’t the odds better for the Giants? There are a few reasons. The lack of production in the outfield has been balanced by the team’s overall production in the infield, where four of the team’s five regulars have a wRC+ of 104 or better. I also think that the Giants will end up focusing on improving the back-end of their rotation rather than the outfield, since both Peavy and Matt Cain have ERAs north of 5.00 this season.

But if Pagan ends up going down again, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility, and the Giants have to fill two outfield holes instead of one, Braun could look like a much more attractive option than starting two of Gregor Blanco, Jarrett Parker, and Mac Williamson alongside Span in center.

Texas Rangers: 15-to-1. The plot thickens! The Rangers have been playing an outfielder down almost all season, due to Shin-Soo Choo being hurt and Delino DeShields Jr. being terrible. They also really haven’t had a DH, since Prince Fielder has been so terrible. On the surface, acquiring Braun would make a ton of sense, especially since Ian Desmond will be a free agent (again) after the season and is poised to cash in after successfully re-establishing his value.

OK, so why aren’t the odds of *this* better? It’s all about the money. Fielder is owed $96 million (though the Tigers are kicking in $24 million of that) from 2017 through 2020, and it’s doubtful the Rangers are going to cut bait on him quite yet. Choo is also owed a lot of money, to the tune of $82 million from 2017-2020. Choo is also finally healthy and back in the lineup for the Rangers, and he was actually quite good over his 149 games with the team last year. They can make do with an outfield of Choo, Desmond, and stud rookie Nomar Mazara while plugging in a cheaper player than Braun (hey there, Ryan Rua) at DH to replace Fielder.

Braun’s the sexy choice, but barring another catastrophe for Texas, I don’t think he’s a likely option for them.

Cleveland Indians: 20-to-1. In theory, Cleveland is a perfect match for the Brewers and Braun. They have a strong farm system and can offer the Brewers a bounty of prospects. The Tribe also has a clear need for an outfielder — Marlon Byrd just started a 162-game PED suspension, and Michael Brantley has played in only 11 games while dealing with a shoulder injury. Rajai Davis leads their outfield with just six homers, and rookie Tyler Naquin has been by far their best hitter in the outfield, slashing .309/.350/.505 in 39 games. Adding someone like Braun would be huge in the second half and beyond, giving Cleveland’s dominant rotation some extra offensive support.

There’s just one problem, and it’s a big one: Braun’s contract. The Indians have a payroll of just $96 million, and while that’s a franchise record, it’s in the bottom 10 in baseball. Adding even a modest salary, let alone Braun’s gargantuan contract, is going to be a chore this summer. And even though Cleveland won’t be paying Michael Bourn, Davis, Mike Napoli, or Nick Swisher next year, they’ve got a tough decision to make in regards to Carlos Santana, and will owe arbitration raises to key players like Cody Allen, Trevor Bauer, and Bryan Shaw. It seems like such a good fit… until you start crunching the numbers, that is.

Houston Astros: 30-to-1. These odds might be too pessimistic, actually. The Astros have started wheeling and dealing from their core of prospects over the last year and a half, swinging trades for players like Evan Gattis, Ken Giles, and Carlos Gomez, among others, to boost their chances of contending. Even without touching their supply of young players producing in the majors (Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr., to name a pair), Houston still has the goods to put together a strong deal to entice Brewers GM (and former Astros executive) David Stearns.

In terms of salary and positional fit, Braun would work for the Astros. Houston’s payroll is just shy of $97 million this year, but will drop by a large amount with Jason Castro, Scott Feldman, Doug Fister, Gomez, Colby Rasmus, and Luis Valbuena all hitting the free agent market. Houston’s outfield has also struggled immensely this year, slashing .222/.298/.381, the second-worst mark in the American League. Only George Springer is more than pulling his weight, while both Gomez and Rasmus struggle.

Having laid it all out like that… why wouldn’t it work? It seems like a strong fit. I don’t think Houston would want to take on a contract like Braun’s, instead preferring to have their payroll spread out among various other players to fill holes. But if the Astros go on a run over the next month leading into the All-Star Break and are still getting minimal production from their outfield, a megadeal that would send both Braun and catcher Jonathan Lucroy to Houston would be in the best interest of both teams.

Los Angeles Dodgers: 50-to-1. The Dodgers have the prospects to swing a deal. Money is never an issue for them. I mean, the team just released Carl Crawford and ate around $35 million to do so. Los Angeles also has struggled to get production out of one of their outfield spots this season.

Why aren’t the odds better? Simple — bringing in Braun would require the Dodgers to bench or trade one of Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig, or Trayce Thompson, all of whom are young players. Two of those three have also been producing this year, meaning the team would be taking one step forward and two steps back if either Pederson or Thompson was excised in favor of Braun. It’s a weird situation; Puig isn’t going to get better on the bench for the Dodgers, so benching him for Braun wouldn’t end well. Trading either Pederson or Thompson in a Braun deal wouldn’t take care of the outfield struggles since they’ve both played well.

Barring an injury, I’d expect the Dodgers to instead focus their midseason roster upgrades on improving the back-end of their rotation or their infield.

Chicago Cubs: 75-to-1. I doubt this happens because of the wealth of talent the Cubs have. Yes, they have the type of prospects that the Brewers would want, but many of those players are in the upper minors and can slot into the outfield, if needed — just like Albert Almora has done for them recently. But Chicago is really one more injury away from having to seriously consider a more legitimate upgrade.

Kyle Schwarber’s season lasted all of five plate appearances before his leg exploded. Jorge Soler has been inconsistent over 50 games, and is currently on the DL with a hamstring strain. Dexter Fowler started the year like a bat out of hell, but his performance has gotten much worse as the year has gone on. Jason Heyward’s first two months of the year were terrible before he started turning it on in June. The presence of both Javier Baez and Tommy La Stella has allowed the Cubs to play Kris Bryant in the outfield, but La Stella is currently on the DL and Baez is a notoriously streaky boom or bust hitter.

Despite being baseball’s best team, the Cubs aren’t flawless. A Braun/Lucroy mega-deal, which I mentioned as working for the Astros, would also fit for the Cubs. Will it happen? I really doubt it. Chicago hasn’t had to deal from their prospect bounty quite yet, and a possible deal with the Brewers may not be tantalizing enough for them to push the button.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 100-to-1. I really only included the Angels because Braun is the type of player they love. He’s a “name” and he makes a lot of money. Two problems: the Angels are arguably one of the three worst teams in the American League, and their farm system is a steaming pile of garbage. An outfield of Mike Trout, Kole Calhoun, and Braun would be awesome, but the Angels have bigger fish to fry. Taking on another huge contract and shedding even more prospects is the last thing they should do.

Field: 50-to-1. I can’t see Braun getting traded to a team that’s not one of these eight… except maybe the Washington Nationals, who are flush with bad contracts and need one more outfielder. No AL East team really needs outfield help (perhaps the Yankees, who have been injury-prone to a laughable degree this year). The National League is so top-heavy, limiting the pool of potential suitors.

In reality, the market for Braun (and Lucroy, for that matter) is so difficult to break down because of the unique set of characteristics teams would need to fill. They need a loaded farm system, payroll flexibility, and of course, a need in the outfield. The Brewers really don’t need to break on what they’re looking for (like the Padres did with Shields), and that puts them in an enviable position over the next six weeks when it comes to Ryan Braun and his trade market.