We’re coming up on the halfway point of the 2016 MLB season, and it’s been a pretty wild one so far. The American League is thoroughly mediocre! The National League has no middle class! Yet, when looking at the major awards in both the American and National Leagues as we approach the halfway mark, one thing is immediately evident – there’s no distinct favorite for four of the six awards.
The two awards that do have favorites are both in the National League, and both of the favorites are members of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Clayton Kershaw is the slam dunk favorite for NL Cy Young, as he leads the majors in both strikeouts and innings pitched, and is second to Jake Arrieta in ERA by a slim 0.05 margin after allowing four runs in six innings on Sunday night against the Pirates. The 1.8 fWAR gap between Kershaw and the duo of Noah Syndergaard and Jose Fernandez is equal to the gap between Syndergaard and Fernandez and guys like Kenta Maeda, Drew Pomeranz, and Tanner Roark, pitchers who are having fine seasons, though aren’t among the top 20 starters in baseball.
The other award that has a clear favorite is the NL Rookie of the Year award, where Corey Seager is hitting .298/.356/.528 with 16 homers and 3.5 fWAR. Trevor Story has more homers (19, compared to Seager’s 16), and Aledmys Diaz has a higher batting average (.312) and OBP (.371) than Seager, but neither is as complete a player as Seager, which is why combined, their fWAR of 3.6 barely eclipses Seager’s mark of 3.5.
CHICAGO, IL – JUNE 02: at Wrigley Field on June 2, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois. The Cubs defeated the Dodgers 7-2. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
And then, there are the other four awards, including the MVP in each league. Who in the hell is the NL MVP? Seager and Nolan Arenado are tied for the league lead in fWAR among hitters, with Marcell Ozuna right behind them. Matt Carpenter leads the league with a .419 wOBA and 167 wRC+, making him the league’s best hitter. Arenado and Adam Duvall of the Reds are tied for the league lead with 21 homers. Nationals duo Daniel Murphy and Wilson Ramos are 1-2 in the NL in batting average, both posting marks north of .340. Reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper got off to a strong start but has faltered in recent weeks, and is hitting just .249/.395/.477 with 15 homers. The Cubs are the NL’s best team, and their best player is probably Anthony Rizzo, though Kris Bryant, Dexter Fowler, and Ben Zobrist have all had stronger first halves.
Hell, you could probably make the argument that the NL MVP is a pitcher in Kershaw, Syndergaard, or Fernandez, all of whom have posted a higher fWAR so far this year than any NL position player and have both gaudy strikeout numbers and incredibly low ERAs. They all also play for contenders, which is a thing that matters to some voters at the end of the season (but really, doesn’t mean a thing when we’re talking about midseason awards).
In the American League, the picture for all three awards is far more muddled. Reigning winner Dallas Keuchel has a 5.35 ERA, and isn’t a serious contender (at this point, at least) to repeat. Jose Quintana of the White Sox leads the league in fWAR at 3.0, though he has fewer strikeouts, fewer innings pitched, a higher ERA, and a worse win/loss record than teammate Chris Sale. Steven Wright of the Red Sox shockingly leads the league in ERA at 2.18 and is third in innings pitched at 103, but his 84 strikeouts rank just 15th in baseball and the 31-year old’s status as a knuckleballer seemingly points to an R.A. Dickey-esque slide in the coming weeks and months.
CHICAGO, IL – JUNE 15: Starting pitcher Chris Sale #49 of the Chicago White Sox delivers the ball against the Detroit Tigers at U.S. Cellular Field on June 15, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois. The White Sox defeated the Tigers 5-3. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
Who else is there? The surprising Indians have a whopping four starters in the AL’s top 16 in ERA, including 2014 winner Corey Kluber (3.59, 16th). Kluber’s also fourth in the league in innings pitched at 102 2/3, and fifth in strikeouts with 103. If he’s able to cut that ERA a bit in the second half, he’ll be a strong contender. Teammate Danny Salazar arguably has a stronger case if you only look at his first half, ranking second in ERA at 2.40 and seventh in strikeouts. Salazar, however, doesn’t have the gaudy innings total that many other contenders in the AL have, as his 86 1/3 innings slot him just 32nd in the Junior Circuit.
I think Sale is the guy for his work in the first half, though. He ranks third in fWAR at 2.7, behind just Quintana and Kluber. His 13 wins lead the American League (not that I care about wins, but some people do!), and his 113 innings pitched also pace the league. Sale is also second in the AL in strikeouts with 109 (just one behind leader David Price, who would be mentioned here if not for his ugly 4.68 ERA).
I’d also be remiss if I didn’t mention Chris Tillman and Cole Hamels, two pitchers with strong win/loss records (10-1 for Tillman, 8-1 for Hamels) that pitch for contenders. Hamels also ranks fifth in ERA, ninth in strikeouts, and 12th in innings pitched, while Tillman is 15th, 13th, and 17th, respectively. Both are positioned to make a claim to the award with strong second halves, though the fact that both have been walk and homer prone this year has dampened their overall value to their teams.
ARLINGTON, TX – JUNE 09: Nomar Mazara #30 of the Texas Rangers hits a single RBI in the third inning against the Houston Astros at Globe Life Park in Arlington on June 9, 2016 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Rick Yeatts/Getty Images)
The American League Rookie of the Year race is also coming into focus after some early haziness. Nomar Mazara of the Rangers is hitting .287/.338/.434 with 11 home runs, and is tied for the league-lead among AL rookies with 1.4 fWAR. His homer total is second in the league behind Byung-ho Park of the Twins (who has struggled mightily as of late, dropping his season triple slash to just .194/.279/.417). But Mazara hasn’t been the best overall hitter among AL rookies – his .331 wOBA ranks fifth, and his 100 wRC+ is just seventh, though none of the players ahead of him in either category are within 100 plate appearances of him yet.
Other names to keep an eye on if they keep up their strong starts with more playing time are Tyler Naquin of the Indians (.322/.376/.591 with six homers in 46 games), Hyun Soo Kim of the Orioles (.339/.424/.426 in 36 games), Dae-Ho Lee of the Mariners (.282/.325/.507 with ten homers in 54 games), and Whit Merrifield of the Royals (.321/.345/.450 in 33 games). It’s also worth considering A.J. Reed of the Astros, a 23-year old who launched 34 homers last season and was called up over the weekend to take hold of the team’s first base job in the second half. A lot can happen when dealing with rookies, and without a clear favorite right now, it’s anybody’s game.
Finally, there’s the complete and utter trainwreck that is the American League MVP award. The award voting won’t be a trainwreck because of a lack of suitable candidates – it’ll be a trainwreck because there are too many good candidates. The AL’s top seven players are separated by less than one win, led by Mike Trout at 4.4 fWAR. The lead-gloved Mark Trumbo leads the league with 22 homers, matching his total from all of last season, split between the Diamondbacks and Mariners. Jose Altuve leads the AL with a .347 batting average. David Ortiz has been the league’s best hitter, hitting an unworldly .337/.430/.683, though he hasn’t played an inning in the field (yet, at least).
BOSTON, MA – JUNE 17: David Ortiz #34 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates with teammate Xander Bogaerts #2 after he hit a two-run home run during the fourth inning against the Seattle Mariners at Fenway Park on June 17, 2016 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Rich Gagnon/Getty Images)
Reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson is second in the league with 4.1 fWAR, hitting .298/.398/.562 with 17 homers. As a comparison, he hit .297/.371/.568 last season when he won the award. Xander Bogaerts of the Red Sox leads the league in total hits (108 already), and his .344 average is second in the league behind Altuve. Six players have both double digit home runs and stolen bases, including Altuve, Trout, Eduardo Nunez (!!!!!!), Ian Desmond, Mookie Betts, and Francisco Lindor. All of those players except Betts is also hitting .300 or better, and Betts is at .293.
So when choosing an AL MVP, it comes down to what you’re looking for in a player. Are you looking for the best hitter? Then Ortiz is your guy. Best player on the best team? I assume you’re looking at Desmond in that case, though I don’t think he’s the strongest candidate. Most well-rounded player? Then you’re probably on team Trout.
For me, it comes down to two guys – Altuve and Manny Machado. I’ve outlined the strong year Altuve is hitting, and his wOBA and wRC+ are second in the AL behind just Ortiz, though he also plays a premium defensive position and is having a strong year defensively there. As for Machado, he ranks third in wOBA and fourth in wRC+ and like Altuve, plays a premium defensive position, and plays it quite well.
The AL MVP award is wide open. Today, I could see any of at least half a dozen guys winning it. As the second half commences and rolls along, that number could be thinned out – or the crop could continue to expand as the American League’s best players continue to thrive.
