In the first major trade of the 2016 season, Big Game James Shields was traded to the Chicago White Sox from San Diego for 26-year old right-handed pitcher Erik Johnson and Fernando Tatis Jr. a 17 year old shortstop from the Dominican Republic who has yet to play in the minors for the White Sox. Tatis is the son of the Fernando Tatis, who played in the majors from 1997 through 2010.
Possibly the biggest part of the deal is actually the $30 million in cash being sent along with Shields to cover what remains of his $21 million owed in 2016 as well as part of the $44 million guaranteed over the next two years assuming Shields doesn’t opt out of his contract at the end of the season. The $44 million includes a buyout of his 2019 season, but the contract could still be worth up to $58 million if the White Sox choose to use that option.
There is little excitement over Johnson, who was a second round pick in 2011 and topped out in the 60’s in various prospect rankings in 2014. While he has been impressive in AAA, it has yet to translate to the MLB level, where he has a career 4.50 ERA in 18 MLB starts and a 6.94 mark in 11.2 innings so far this year. For San Diego, this move is almost completely a salary dump to clear the books for the next two years as they look to rebuild again.
After blasting off to start the season, the White Sox have fallen back to where many expected them to be prior to the start of the season, a competitive third place. They sit just a game behind Cleveland for second and a game and a half behind first place Kansas City, easily in striking distance for both the Central or a Wild Card birth. What is surprising is that they felt they needed another starting pitcher, especially at the cost (in terms of money rather than prospects) and low value that Shields brings. The White Sox are currently the best team in the AL at preventing runs, with just 207 allowed on the year and have two starters, Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, who hold a season ERA below 2.30. Beyond those two, the rotation weakens and Chicago hasn’t had a legitimate fifth starter all year, but it is still far better all around than their offense has been compared to the rest of the league.
Shields was scheduled to pitch on Sunday for the Padres and could do so for the White Sox, but could also be pushed back a day so he sits behind Quintana as the Sox third starter. This will certainly lengthen their rotation with Carlos Rodon moving back to fourth and Mat Latos to fifth. The unpredictability of Latos is probably one of the biggest reasons for the move in addition to the lack of production from Miguel Gonzalez and the now-released John Danks in the five spot. While he started the season well, Latos has a 6.54 ERA in his last six starts and has yet to pitch through the seventh this year. With Shields, the White Sox will only have one hole to fill in the rotation should they decide to move on from Latos.
There is still the question of whether Shields is a viable pitcher, however. Playing in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball, he pitched to a 4.28 ERA, striking out 57 in 67.1 innings while walking 27. His 4.42 FIP would seem to say that this ERA was not extremely effected by poor defense in San Diego (1.8 more runs allowed compared to the average team), but it could be by Chicago’s (3.6 more runs allowed) and the smaller dimensions of U.S. Cellular Field. Looking at Shields’ walk, home run and strike out rates that are all among the worst in his career, it’s hard to believe that he will improve his output at the age of 34 in a more hostile environment with greater pressure. Of course, he is Big Game James (5.46 ERA in 11 post-season starts), so maybe that’s what he needs.
