It’s easy to give up on a player after a poor first half, but reality is, there is still plenty of time to turn things around. While they won’t be able to change a .200 average into a .300 or push a 5.00+ ERA under 3.00, but they could still be valuable members of a team looking for a late season boost.
Here are five players who have luck on their side in turning around their seasons.
Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
Hitting 12 home runs with 41 RBI while slugging .455 is nothing to be ashamed of, but Bautista’s .230 average and .360 OBP are his worst since he moved to Toronto and found himself. While we could expect some drop off as Bautista is now 35 years old, he only had 127 plate appearances before he was 25, so his clock was started a little later than most.
As for signs of improvement, Bautista is third from the bottom in batting average on balls in play among qualifiers (.239) and unlike Todd Frazier and Prince Fielder, Bautista is still regularly crushing the ball with 38% of contact being hard contact (30th of 167 qualifying players in baseball) to just 21% soft.
Over his career, Bautista has been a poor second half hitter, batting .248/.359/.492 compared to .261/.373/.497 in the first, but part of that could have been due to tiring as the season droned on. After playing in over 150 games each of the last two years, however, he has played in just 65 of 91 Jays games this year and should be in good shape to both finish the season and contribute at his normal level in the playoffs. The Jays could certainly use an improved Bautista as they sit 11 games above .500, but two games back in the division and just two games up for the second Wild Card.
The final bit of motivation for Bautista, if a turnaround in luck isn’t enough, is that he will be a free agent at the end of the season. Since he is 35, a poor second half could greatly affect his pay day during the upcoming off-season as teams will be more likely to value that performance than his many years of production prior.
TORONTO, CANADA – JUNE 13: Ryan Howard #6 of the Philadelphia Phillies hits a solo home run in the seventh inning during MLB game action against the Toronto Blue Jays on June 13, 2016 at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Ryan Howard
Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
Howard is like Bautista, but a much more extreme example. He is likely to be a free agent after this season as the Phillies hold an option with a $10 million buyout and he is currently batting .154/.214/.353, but unlike Bautista, has none of the gaudy power numbers to supplant that this year. Unlike the Blue Jays, who rank fifth in baseball and second in the AL in runs scored, the Phillies are second to last in baseball in offense and have been relying entirely on their pitching to stay on the fringes of contention.
Philadelphia is a team built more for the future than this season, however, and they would be much better off if they could find a taker for Howard right now, even if they have to eat most of his salary and his buyout for next year. It may seem that bizarre that a team would want the 36-year old veteran, but he has made hard contact 44.4% of the time and soft just 10.5%, both top seven numbers in baseball among hitters with at least 150 plate appearances. In addition, he has had an infield fly ball rate of just 1.7% and a solid 21.8% line drive rate. If there has ever been a player with less luck, he would be hard to find.
While some of Howard’s bad “luck” likely stems from the fact that he can’t run to first anymore and some of his negative value from his poor play at first base, if he could find an AL home where he could DH and continue platooning mostly against right handers, Howard could see an extreme improvement over his current production. If he doesn’t, his career could be just about over after this season.
SAN FRANCISCO, CA – JUNE 26: Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning at AT&T Park on June 26, 2016 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Jason O. Watson/Getty Images)
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
Sticking with the Fighting Phils, the 2014 first round pick and second year player Nola hasn’t quite played up to his rookie campaign with a 4.69 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and a dismal 5-8 record. If we look beyond this, however, there are nothing but positives. Among things he can control, Nola is striking out more than one batter per inning and allowing just a tick over two walks per nine.
If he is only allowing 0.24 walks per innings pitched, why is his WHIP over a baserunner per inning above that? A .331 BABIP is largely to answer and the Phillies’ -11.6 runs allowed defensively compared to the league average is even more so. Nola has been almost exclusively a ground ball pitcher (55.1% ground balls to 23.9% fly balls) and the poor play by Howard at first and Maikel Franco at third has likely cost him.
While some of the difference between his tenth-best in MLB 3.20 FIP and his 4.69 ERA is probably luck based, more of it is likely defense-based, so while he is poised for a turnaround, it could require some help on the part of his infield.
BOSTON, MA – JULY 10: David Price #24 of the Boston Red Sox walks ot the dugout after pitching the eighth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park on July 10, 2016 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
David Price, Boston Red Sox
While a great offense behind him as allowed Price to earn a 9-6 record so far, Price has been far from earning his lofty paycheck so far this season with a 4.34 ERA and over one home run per nine through 124.1 innings.
Price’s actual results greatly differ from his expected however, as he has struck out more than ten per nine innings and walked less than two with the home run rate being his only negative component. Altogether, it works out to a 3.42 FIP, 17th best in the majors and an even better 3.16 xFIP. Unlike with Nola, the Red Sox defense has actually been pretty good, so there is a better chance that Price’s problems have been luck related and thus, more easy to turn around.
Of course, his .320 BABIP doesn’t include his home runs, but never in Price’s career has he allowed more than one home run per nine in a season with at least 130 innings. While he hasn’t been as good as he was last year in any case, he has been nowhere near two runs worse per nine innings and his numbers will likely even out shortly.
In fact, this has already started to happen. After starting the season terribly with a 6.75 ERA through his first seven starts, he has allowed just a 3.15 ERA over his last 12 covering 83 innings. During this period, his home run rate has stayed abnormally high (1.3 per nine), however, and any real second half improvements will be based almost entirely on him decreasing that number.
NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 24: Pitcher Dellin Betances #68of the New York Yankees delivers a pitch against the Chicago White Sox during the eighth inning of a MLB baseball game at Yankee Stadium on September 24, 2015 in the Bronx borough of New York City. The Yankees defeated the White Sox 3-2. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
Dellin Betances, New York Yankees
What are you talking about? Dellin Betances was just an All-Star for the third straight year and has a 2.66 ERA and 21 holds in 24 chances. The fact is, he is so much better than what he has been this year. In his first two seasons, Betances finished with an ERA of 1.40 and 1.50 and while his home run rate has maintained this year, his walk rate has decreased and strikeout rate increased to an incredible 15.95%. According to his FIP, his ERA should be closer to 1.20 and his xFIP agrees at 1.15.
In addition, while there have been rumors about Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman being trade bait, there have been none about Betances. The Yankees know he’s the best of the best bullpen in baseball and it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Betances finally given the closer’s role that should have been his as soon as Mariano Rivera retired. Not that he doesn’t already have the respect of all in baseball, but assuming Chapman is traded before the deadline, Betances can start accruing those beloved saves in what should be a long career as the Yankees closer.
