News broke yesterday that the Los Angeles Angels are actively pursuing Tampa Bay Rays GM Andrew Friedman, a man who is widely considered to be one of the top general managers in the game, if not the very best. His reputation stems from turning a moribund Rays franchise into an annual contender despite a shoestring budget. All that excellent work has made him a highly coveted man and the Angels want to pry him loose and he seems to be at least entertaining the idea, suggesting that he will some day leave the Rays for greener pastures, if not the Angels then someone else. We don’t know exactly how this story will end for Friedman, but it certainly sounds like a story we’ve all heard before, probably because it is eerily similar to story of Billy Beane.
Let’s see, a small market team. Check.
A sustained window of success. Check.
Almost no money to work with. BIG check.
An acclaimed book glorifying the genius the general manager. Check.
Friedman. Beane. Beane. Friedman. The only thing missing is a movie version of Friedman’s exploit, although with the success of Moneyball in theatres can an Extra 2 Percent blockbuster be far behind?
There is one way though that Friedman could set himself apart from Beane, and that would be by accepting the offer when the owner from the big market club swoops into town to wine and dine him.
As strange as it may sound, the saga of Billy Beane may very well be a cautionary tale for both Andrew Friedman and the covetous Angels. While Beane’s spurning of the Red Sox may have made for a warm and fuzzy Hollywood ending, but it robbed us of an opportunity to see just how well a “Moneyball” GM would fair if he were to make the leap to a big market club with a massive payroll. Beane, much like Friedman, achieved much of his success by drafting smartly, making shrewd trades and making minimal investments in free agency that reaped large rewards. That is a great skillset to have, but it tells us almost nothing about what he would have done if he didn’t have to worry so much about getting the most out of every single cent he spent.
Small market GMs have a lot of problems to deal with, but that doesn’t mean big market general managers have the easy life. Sometimes having all of that money burning a hole in your pocket causes you a GM to make riskier investments than he normally would have if he didn’t think he could just spend again later to rectify matters should the risky bet blow up in his face. Just take a look at what Theo Epstein, a supposed GM savant in his own right, did in Boston the last few years by throwing money away on the likes of John Lackey, Mike Cameron, Bobby Jenks and Daisuke Matsuzaka and making a decadent and frivolous investment in Carl Crawford. The point is, having lots of money can make smart people do some very dumb things.
That is something the Angels, or any other team that comes calling for Friedman should he reject them, should keep in mind. The only big money, multi-year deals Friedman has ever handed out have typically been to his own players and for under market value. Granted, those signings have been a big reason the Rays have remained competitive, but they are also the kind of investments that take a great deal of time tor prove their worth. Teams like the Halos don’t have the patience or desire to sit back, relax and wait five years for Friedman to work a few drafts and cultivate crops of talent through the farm system. They want results and they want them now and that sort of thing is almost always done via free agency.
Now, part of free agency is finding players that fit properly into the team’s roster, which we know Friedman to handle. But the bigger part of free agency is actually getting those quality players to sign with you at a proper price and Friedman has almost no track record on that front. When he negotiates those team-friendly contract extensions with his young players, he is only negotiating against the nebulous notion that the player will have a chance to earn more money on the free market in years to come. These are deals that can be discussed and tweaked over weeks and months before they are agreed upon. But when it comes to landing a big fish free agent, Friedman will have to actively negotiate against other clubs with deep pockets and do so in a cutthroat manner with just a few days or even sometimes hours to get a deal. Being a big market GM is just a different animal.
This isn’t to say that Friedman will fail in a big market, far from it. Surely all that money won’t instantly turn him into the kind of moron that trades Mike Napoli for Vernon Wells. If anything, the money will only enhance his ability to operate effectively in the draft, which should keep whatever clubs he leaves for at least somewhat competitive. But until we know what he can do when he gets to sit at the big boy table during free agency and not just waiting patiently at the little kids’ table hoping he can steal a few tasty tablescraps here and there, we won’t know if he can avoid the same pitfalls as other big market GMs who end up shooting themselves in the foot with bad free agency contracts.
But maybe we will never get to find out because Friedman could turn out to be so much like Beane that he chooses loyalty over wealth and opportunity. It may not be what the Angels want to see happen, but at least it will make for a good movie.
