Before the season, most anyone would have told you that Theo Epstein is one of the top general managers in all of baseball. Heck, that would have been true a month ago too, but thanks to the Red Sox going into a tailspin the last few weeks, it has suddenly become immensely popular to throw Epstein under the bus for what is now supposedly a multitude of bad decisions. He’s quickly becoming such a villain that he might want to check outside his window to make sure there isn’t an angry mob with torches and pitchforks gathering on his front lawn.
While nobody is going to say that Epstein is blameless in what is shaping up to be an epic collapse, maybe we all just need to take a deep breath and calm down a little.
The single greatest offense that Epstein is being accused of is failing to stockpile a depth for the starting rotation which is currently falling apart at the seams. After watching John Lackey struggle through his umpteenth start of the season as the follow-up act to Kyle Weiland, well, Kyle Weiland-ing all over the place earlier in the day, I can’t say I blame folks for being upset with the Red Sox lack of rotation depth. I also don’t know what more Epstein was supposed to do.
Ten different pitchers have started at least four games for the Red Sox this year, which is really kind of ridiculous. Injuries ravage teams every year, but how often is a team asked to basically field two different rotations? While it may not look like it now, Epstein actually did have a fair amount rotation options before the season started. In addition to the set rotation of Beckett-Lester-Buchholz-Lackey-Matsuzaka, Epstein armed his pitching staff with perennial fallback option Tim Wakefield, former prospect Andrew Miller, prospect Kyle Weiland and even stashed veteran Kevin Millwood in the minors, just in case.
That looks like a lousy Plan B right now, but Wakefiled has been a trusted option for years, Miller posted great numbers in the minors before being promoted and Weiland was almost as impressive before his recent call up as well. Millwood didn’t work out, but it was a reasonable gamble. On paper, that seems alright. Not great, but who has a great #8 starter?
The problem here is that Epstein took multiple gambles and basically none of them panned out. That doesn’t make him stupid or inept, it just makes him unlucky. Just look at all the retread pitchers that have had big comeback seasons this year. Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Ryan Vogelsong, Jerome Williams, Chris Capuano and so on. Signing any of those guys was a crapshoot. Epstein though rolled snake eyes because he picked Miller and Millwood as his guys.
Even Epstein’s trade for Bedard was a gamble. Health has long been a problem for Bedard, but Epstein was rolling the dice again and hoping that Bedard could just stay intact for three months. The payoff for that gamble is that Bedard is very, very good when healthy. That can’t be said of the “safer” options Epstein is being ripped for not acquiring. Really, people? You’d rather Epstein would’ve played it safe with a chump like Livan Hernandez. Sure, he’ll be healthy, but he will also be just as bad as Lackey, Weiland and the rest. Jason Marquis? That was safe and still blew up in Arizona’s face. A guy like Aaron Harang could have been an option to eat some innings too, but Epstein is thinking about more than just chewing up innings so that the Red Sox can reach the regular season finishing line. Boston wanted a third starter who could actually be a potential difference maker in the post-season, which is why he went for Bedard over any of the “safer” options.
It is also important to remember that starting pitching isn’t always easy to acquire either. Boston may have loads of financial resources, but money can’t buy everything. Heck, the filthy rich Yankees are relying on two scrap heap rotation pick-ups themselves right now. The problem for Boston is a thin farm system. Having made a number of big deals in recent years, the Red Sox prospect depth leaves something to be desired, but such is the price of making those big deals. Sooner or later you run out of blue chip prospects to deal. The lack of prospects is something Epstein remains responsible for, but there isn’t a GM alive that can constantly keep their minor league system brimming with desirable talent.
Honestly, this could all easily end up being a bad dream a few weeks from now. With Beckett, Lester and Bedard all currently healthy and Buchholz possibly rejoining the team soon, Boston is close to having a very potent post-season rotation once again. If they can just survive this final week, this supposedly flawed roster that Epstein built is going to be in great position to do some serious damage in the playoffs. Won’t we all feel like idiots should the Sox capture their third World Series of Epstein’s tenure?
