It happens every year, doesn’t it? Last year it was Jose Bautista. The year before that, Ben Zobrist. Ryan Ludwick took home the honor back in 2008. Ah yes, the annual thrill of getting to see a player long considered nothing more than a nice bench player or mere depth for the pitching staff taking the baseball world by surprise and becoming not just a quality regular, but a bona fide All-Star. Some go on to become shining stars of the league for years to come, like David Ortiz in 2003 and beyond. Others, like Derrick Turnbow in 2005, are more like supernovas that explode on the league for a year and the burn out just as quickly, never to be heard from again.
The fun in it all is seeing a player like that pull themselves up out from anonymity and shock the world with their newfound greatness. Not even the smartest amongst us could have predicted the player’s ascent. The only problem is that we never know who the big surprise player really is until well into the season, what with so many different random scrubs getting hot at the start of the season. For every one Jose Bautista, there are twenty Tuffy Rhodes-es.
Well, I for one am tired of waiting for the herd to thin itself out. I want to know who our superstar in the making is and I want to know it now. So many flash-in-the-pan players, so little time. Where is a baseball fan to begin? Will it be a starter or a reliever? A slugger or a speed demon?
The “I Can’t Believe It’s Not Power” Division
Like the aforementioned Bautista, sometimes guys develop wicked power strokes out of nowhere. Already this season we have a number of entrants into this category, but are any for real?
Asdrubal Cabrera – With all the young sluggers on the Cleveland roster, somehow Asdrubal Cabrera leads the team in homers. This is the same Cabrera that has never hit more than six homers in a season and capped out at eight during his minor league career, so, you know, he has that going for him. The power may not be for real with Asdrubal, but he has the ability to hit for a high average and has good speed, so maybe if he can maintain even a modest increase his his power output (say, 18 homers by season’s end?), we could definitely be talking about an All-Star shortstop.
Howie Kendrick – The man once touted as a future batting champ has never delivered on that promise, but maybe this is finally his year. His four home runs on the season could be a sign that he is finally learning to drive the ball and make aggressive contact. Or maybe two of those homers came in a game where there was a 50 mph wind blowing out to left field and this is just a fluke. Fluke or not, Kendrick leads the free world in WAR, so it would best for us all to keep a close eye on him, especially since he was considered a surefire star-in-the-making when he first broke into the bigs a few years ago.
Seth Smith – Taking a page right out of Bautista’s playbook, Smith seemed destined to be forever mired into a platoon role despite flashing solid power throughout his career. Smith has only managed one dinger so far this year but that hasn’t stopped him from being one of the league leaders in slugging percentage. This might just be the season that Smith, like so many lefty power hitters before him, proves that he can hold his own against any pitcher and Colorado seems willing to give him a shot at doing so.
The “Meek (Evan excluded) Shall Inherit the Earth” Division
Alas, not everyone can impress us with the big strong muscles. Sometimes guys have to utilize their legs or just good old fashioned contact skills to get the job done.
Willie Bloomquist – It isn’t every year that a 33-year old utility man starts sporting an OPS just shy of 1.000 and is one off the league lead in steals. Bloomquist has gotten his chances at regular playing time before and never proven himself to be anything but a league average player. It is hard to buy that he’ll suddenly blossom into a decent regular, much less an All-Star in his ninth MLB season at such an advanced age, but stranger things have happened.
Tony Gwynn, Jr. – We all know he’s got the right DNA, but it hasn’t made him anything more than roster filler thus far in his career. But now, Gwynn has taken advantage of the Dodgers lack of outfield depth and started putting up an average that would make his daddy proud. If he can keep that average up, he’ll finally be able to put his stellar speed to full use and maybe take a step out from his famous father’s shadow and grab a piece of the spotlight for himself.
Sam Fuld – For sheer storyline alone, I really hope Fuld is the unsuspecting superstar in the making. A mere throw-in to the Matt Garza trade, Fuld somehow ended up making the Rays and has since taken full advantage of some unexpected openings in the Rays’ outfield to become a sudden fixture on highlight reels across the land. If he’s not making amazing diving catches, he’s missing out on the cycle because he’d rather leg out a double than stop at first just for personal glory. Even if we never hear from Fuld again (a strong possibility since he was barely even a full-time player when he was in the minors), he’s definitely had a week he’ll never forget.
The “Pocket Aces” Division
It isn’t always the hitters that have all the fun, sometimes starting pitchers are the ones making the biggest flash in the pan. There are no shortage of nominees in this division, so we’ll just focus on the most unlikely of the unlikely.
Chris Narveson – He wasn’t even guaranteed a rotation spot coming into the spring, but I think after not allowing a single run and fanning 14 in 13 innings of work this year, that rotation spot should be safe for quite awhile. At age 20 and coming off a season where his ERA was just a hair under 5.00, he is no lock to keep this up, but as a former second round pick and a guy who actually finished pretty strong in the second half of the 2010 season, it could just be that Narveson is a late bloomer.
Matt Harrison – If the Rangers hadn’t been such pansies and chickened out at the last second on converting Neftali Feliz to a starter, Harrison would probably be toiling away in some minor league ballpark right now. But it seems Texas can do nothing wrong so far this year as they’ve been the fortuitous recipient of Harrison winning both of his starts and posting a 1.29 ERA. There is plenty of reason to doubt that Harrison is the real deal, but betting against a Ranger right now seems about as smart as betting against Tim McCarver in a “stating the obvious” competition.
Mitch Talbot – Another high draft choice who could just be a late bloomer, Talbot turned some heads with a dominant start over the Angels just last night. He’s got a 1.46 ERA and is striking out nearly a batter per inning through two turns in the rotation. His case seems pretty shaky though since he didn’t even get out of the fifth inning in his first start, and there is a real possibility that in a few months, nobody is going to consider shutting out the Angels to be all that difficult a feat to accomplish.
The “Sweet Relief” Division
Finding a breakout reliever is usually pretty easy since there is always a guy or two who unexpectedly stumbles into 30+ saves or because some random middle reliever gets on the hot streak of a lifetime.
Jose Contreras – Who doesn’t love to overreact to save totals? Even if the guy collecting the saves is 40 years old (and that might be generous) and spent his entire career being exceedingly frustrating to any team he has ever played on, give him 20+ saves and a decent ERA at the All-Star break and he a virtual lock to be playing in the Mid-Summer Classic. With Brad Lidge expected to be out until mid-season, Contreras has breakout star written all over his weary face.
Tim Collins – The diminutive lefty was a good prospect entering the season, so he doesn’t have the standard rap sheet of career mediocrity, but we’re making a special exemption for him due to his unique circumstances. At 5’7″, Collins has mass appeal to all of us who love to see the little guy (literally, in this case) defy the odds and become a success. With seven strikeouts and no runs allowed in 4.2 innings, Collins is living up to the hype and there seems to be little reason to doubt his pedigree at this point.
Kyle Farnsworth – This is really just a wild stab in the dark, but can’t you just foresee a scenario where after over a decade of alternating between being a total liability and almost, but not quite, good enough to be a closer that Farnsworth actually put it all together in Tampa this year to get his first prolonged taste of success? Given his career of inconsistency, and the fact that Rays aren’t exactly generating a whole lot of save chances so far, it seems like a real longshot, but somebody has to get some saves in Tampa Bay, right? Right? Anyone? Bueller? OK, you’re right, forget I ever mentioned him.
No offense to the players listed above, but I’m not exactly foreseeing any of them slugging 50 homers or walking away with a Cy Young. But who knows? This year’s star may not even be on this list or even on anyone’s radar right now. But if I had to choose someone to shock the world (and I guess I do, otherwise this has been a huge waste of time), I think the smart money is on Contreras. He’s the closer for a contender which means he’ll get all the save opportunities he can handle and saves almost always equal fame, however short-lived it might be.
