During the week, Major League Baseball was captivated by yet another offensive performance from the Boston Red Sox. After Jackie Bradley, Jr. nearly hit 30 games with his hit streak, Mookie Betts slugged five home runs across two games, the first leadoff hitter ever to do so. Additionally, Xander Bogaerts has been on a nice little tear of his own, running his own hit streak up to 26 games heading into Friday’s action. Each instance was just another chapter in what has been a glorious offensive year thus far for the resurgent Boston club.
The Red Sox head into the season’s third month as perhaps the most offensively potent club this side of the North Side of Chicago. They currently lead the league in WAR for position players, at a 15.0 mark, while leading the way in average (.296 as a team) and on-base percentage (.360). Their team .198 ISO is also the top mark in the league, measuring their ability to hit for extra bases, while they rank only 27th in the league in strikeout rate (18.7% is the fourth lowest) and feature a walk rate that ranks in the top half of the league, at 8.6%. The power has been there, as their 71 team home runs are the fifth most in all of baseball, and they’ve added some speed as well, with their 35 swipes ranking seventh in baseball. Their wRC+, as a team, is at 128. As a team, they possess a 33.3% hard hit rate, good for seventh in baseball. David Ortiz ranks at the top of the league in that regard, with an absurd 48.1% mark.
Obviously that paragraph is simply packed with information, but it really speaks to the offensive dominance which the Red Sox have showcased this year. They currently have four position players inside of the top 25 in baseball in WAR: Bogaerts (5th), Betts (12th), Dustin Pedroia (17th), and Bradley, Jr. (25th). Among that group, as well as Ortiz, the lowest OBP is Betts, at a .336 mark. Both Bradley, Jr. and Ortiz are reaching base at a rate over .400, while Bogaerts comes into the weekend at a .397 rate. It’s difficult to see regression on the horizon throughout the lineup, with the exception of maybe Bogaerts’ .401 BABIP.
For the most part, the offensive success of the BoSox doesn’t even come across as an overwhelming surprise. Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley, Jr. continue to take steps forward in their development, while Pedroia and Ortiz continue to be the steady presences that they have been in this lineup for years. And that’s not even mentioning a guy like Hanley Ramirez, who is still getting on base at a high rate, even if the power hasn’t been there. This is a team that maintains a quality approach (one of the league’s lowest swing rates), hits the ball hard, and hits for power. Offensively, they’re as strong a contender as one can find in the American League.
And then you flip the script and take a look at their pitching.
The Red Sox rank just 18th in starting pitcher WAR, with a starting staff that ranks in the top ten in strikeouts per nine, at 8.10, but also in the top ten in BB/9, with a 3.31 figure. They have one of the league’s lowest groundball rates, with a 42.0% that ranks just 26th in Major League Baseball. Subsequently, their ERA for their starting staff is 4.79, ninth-worst in baseball, and their 4.34 FIP ranks 15th among the same group. Their starting staff gives up hard contact 30.9% of the time, 12th in baseball and seventh in the AL.
David Price has his walks up a touch, but his 3.11 FIP is far better than his ERA, currently sitting over five, would indicate. Clay Buchholz was going to be leaned on as a starter, but has since been demoted to the bullpen. Joe Kelly has been sent to Triple-A, and Rick Porcello continues to be hit hard by opposing teams. Steven Wright has been a source of solace for the Red Sox, and Eduardo Rodriguez could serve as the same, coming off of a very good first start in 2016. Price, Wright, and Rodriguez could certainly come together to make a rather formidable top three in the rotation, but it’s far from where the Red Sox would like to be as the fall approaches later on in the season.
In certain regards, their bullpen would appear to be somewhat more reliable. Their 3.77 ERA ranks 11th, while their 3.61 FIP puts them inside of the top ten. At 26.2%, they have a relief corps that ranks fifth in the league in strikeout rate. At the same time, they rank fourth in the league in hard hit rate against (34.6%), they feature the second lowest groundball rate (38.7%), and have only stranded about 73% of runners, a rate which ranks 21st in the bigs. Seventeen different pitchers have come out of the revolving door of a bullpen for Boston, so they’ll have to sort their personnel out there as well as in their starting staff.
And that’s what really could bring down this Red Sox team: the pitching. There are some arms here, sure, but they’ve failed to get consistency out of any facet of their current staff. Outside of a few reliable arms, they’re going to have some work to do in order to sort it out before the September and October months. Corrections will have to be made by some, while personnel will have to be brought in from the outside. The question is, will they be able to make the necessary adjustments in order to experience significant October success? At least they know the offense will be there when they need it.
Offensively, and even defensively, the Red Sox are as dangerous a club as exists in all of baseball. They’ve earned that standing atop the American League East, and it should be a treat for fans to watch them try and outslug the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays for the crown in that division. At the same time, if there’s a limitation that’s going to hold this team back, it’s going to be the pitching. But with the nearly unlimited resources, financially and in regard to their trade chips, it’s hard to imagine that the bump will remain a handicap for them for the entirety of this 2016 season.
