In a season that certainly hasn’t lacked for intriguing storylines, one of the more remarkable situations thus far in 2016 has been the not-so-subtle emergence of Jackie Bradley, Jr. While the Boston Red Sox were expected to return to prominence after a noisy offseason, Bradley, Jr. was something of a wild card heading into the year, with a spot in the outfield no guarantee for him. At this point, though, as Bradley, Jr.’s hit streak approaches 30 games, he has emerged as one of the larger offensive threats in the game, at least to this point in the season.
For some, that comes as a complete surprise. For others, who had always banked on JBJ’s upside, it likely isn’t. For the former, if you stopped paying attention to Bradley, Jr. after 2014, then this truly did come out of nowhere. In that season, he posted a strikeout rate of nearly 30%, reached base at a paltry clip of .265, and went for a wRC+ of only 46. In that respect alone, the turnaround for JBJ is truly magnificent, albeit not terribly shocking.
To this point in the season, Bradley, Jr. has slashed an impressive .342/.413/.618/1.031. He’s cut down on his strikeout rate by about eight percent at this point, going down on strikes 19.8% of the time, while maintaining a respectable 9.9% walk rate. His wRC+ is up at 176, which trails only Yoenis Cespedes among Major League OF. His ability to not only hit for average, but for power as well, has been one of the more notable aspects of his game, with a .276 ISO that ranks fourth among qualifying outfielders.
At 5’10”, Bradley, Jr.’s stature isn’t exactly something that should indicate big power, but his numbers in that regard are really quite something. He’s gone for that .276 ISO, which measures the ability to hit for extra bases. That tends to seem like a really outlandish figure, but it’s not entirely a surprise, given that he posted a .249 mark last season. When you’re making the type of contact that JBJ is, that tends to become less of a surprise, and he’s making hard contact at a 39.5% rate, which ranks seventh among Major League outfielders. And when we look for answers as to the question of how Bradley, Jr. has managed to demonstrated such marked improvement, it’s that type of contact that really represents a focal point. At the same time, though, it’s somewhat difficult to find answers when his approach has evolved into something significantly more aggressive.
Bradley, Jr. has been swinging at more pitches, but making better contact. His overall Swing% is up about three percent, to 46.2% on the year. He’s swinging at 29.5% of pitches outside of the strike zone (up about three percent from last year), and 67.3% of pitches inside of it (up about two percent). As such, his swinging strike rate is still a touch high, even if it has decreased, at 10.9%. But in his increased aggressiveness, Bradley, Jr. has found a rhythm here, with that obscene hard contact rate, and a linedrive rate that is up almost at 20%, up about four since last season.
One of the more intriguing things has been JBJ’s ability to make contact on pitches outside of the strike zone. His overall contact rate is up about four percent, at 75.9%, but that Contact% on pitches outside of the strike zone is what is really impressive, as it’s risen about seven percent, to 63.4%. This link, courtesy of Brooks Baseball, helps to illustrate that increased aggressiveness from JBJ.
There are some who will look at that aggressiveness, though, and shy away from getting too high on Bradley, Jr. Additionally, that .396 BABIP is a figure that tends to lend itself to people across the baseball landscape pointing and screaming that a regression is nigh. Does his previously high strikeout rate, coupled with that increased aggressiveness, provide a sense of foreboding? Sure, but not necessarily to a large degree. When you’ve got a hitter like JBJ making the type of contact that he is across the board, it’s hard to be too cynical, as much as we all might want to.
Not only that, Bradley, Jr. has demonstrated improvement against all pitch types. His exit velocity against the three main types, hard, breaking, and offspeed pitches, is up across the board, with a noted three percent increase against fastballs. He’s making linedrive contact against fastballs at about the same pace, but has seen an increase in his LD% against both breaking and offspeed-type pitches. We are very seriously watching the development of a hitter take place before our very eyes. The actual explanation as to how this improvement, however, stands to question.
So exactly what are we to attribute this new-and-improved Jackie Bradley, Jr.? That’s a difficult question to answer. Jeff Sullivan at FanGraphs pointed out that dissecting the actual mechanical changes is a tall task, and it may not even have to do with his mechanics so much as JBJ making some mental improvements at the plate. As much as we try and analyze the mechanical aspects in this day and age of analytics, it’s entirely possible that his growth and increased maturity as a hitter is absolutely what’s responsible for his continued development and improvement this season. For now, that’s the explanation we’ll roll with. But for a guy who didn’t even appear to have a spot locked down in the Boston outfield heading into the season, this breakout certainly has been a pleasure to watch.
**Statistics via FanGraphs
