It’s been no secret throughout the offseason, and especially recently, that the Chicago Cubs were in the market for an everyday centerfielder. With Arismendy Alcantara representing the only real option out there, in addition to the fact that their only addition to the outfield thus far in the offseason was Chris Denorfia, they had been connected to multiple players available in recent weeks. Which made it no surprise when it was reported on Monday morning that the Cubs were set to acquire Dexter Fowler from the Houston Astros. Fowler has been a name that has floated around the rumor mill throughout the offseason, and the Cubs have long been seen as a fit. In Fowler, the Cubs get their man and continue to work their way towards contention in 2015.
Fowler’s fit with the Cubs comes primarily as an offensive presence. He gives them a proven bat at the top of the order that is capable of getting on base. He reached base at a .375 clip last season. He’s not a huge stolen base guy, especially in his last couple years, but has averaged 19 swipes across 162 games in his career. He can add a little bit of pop at the top of the order as well. The approach is what should have folks on the North Side really excited about Fowler. He demonstrates some of the best plate discipline in the bigs. In that respect, he’s exactly what the Cubs were looking for, hence the regular connection throughout the offseason.
At the same time, the major drawback with Fowler is his defense. His UZR out in center for the Astros last season was a quite miserable -21.8. That figure had him as the worst defensive centerfielder in baseball last season. That will definitely be a point of concern moving forward, but if he can play even serviceable defense, his approach should make the deal worth it for the Cubs. Perhaps they give him a run in left and let Alcantara roll in center.
Additionally, another question that will likely follow this deal is whether or not Fowler is a long-term guy for the Cubs, or merely a stopgap in center. Does he hold the fort down until someone like Albert Almora is ready? Or do they move him over to left and lock him in for a few years? It’s important to note that he asked for almost $11 million in arbitration from Houston.
In exchange for Fowler, the Astros acquire Luis Valbuena and Dan Straily. Valbuena is an underrated player across the entirety of Major League Baseball. He’s a versatile player capable of playing all over the infield, plays strong defense, has a very nice approach, and can provide a bit of power. His 2.7 WAR last year was a career mark. It’ll be interesting to see how he’s utilized in Houston, but smart money has him starting at the hot corner over Matt Dominguez.
Straily was a virtual throw-in in last summer’s Jeff Samardzija deal with Oakland and likely wasn’t going to have a chance to crack to the rotation in a very deep group for the Cubs. There’s some very obvious upside of Straily, who’s been a quality minor league starter, though that hasn’t translated into Major League success. While that upside as a mid-rotation starter may not exist anymore, if he can locate his pitches effectively, he has the chops to mow hitters down. He’ll have an opportunity in Houston that he wouldn’t have had in Chicago.
One final effect that this trade will have on the side of the Cubs is what this means for super prospect Kris Bryant. Valbuena was likely going to be the odd man out when Bryant was ready for a callup to the Cubs. Now, it would appear that there’s no one in his way. While that doesn’t mean he’ll be in the Opening Day lineup, as he shouldn’t be, it could mean a couple of weeks of Mike Olt at third base before Bryant makes the jump. It’s a quietly exciting aspect.
Overall, this is the type of deal that favors both teams. The Cubs get the top-of-the-order bat that they coveted, while opening up their lineup to a multitude of different options. The Astros get a solid bat capable of playing all over the field, and a decent upside starter that could fill in the back of their rotation. For a pair of teams that should be intriguing to watch in the upcoming season, this only adds to it.
