Finding a leadoff man for an MLB lineup is a harder task that one would think. Teams are looking for that perfect blend of plate discipline, contact skills and speed that can be the catalyst for a high-powered offense. As it turns out, players that meet all three of those criteria are incredibly hard to find. That leaves a lot of teams scrambling to find a suitable tablesetter, with the choices often erring on the side speedy guys because they more closesly match the old school way of thinking, which unfortunately tends to ignore the importance of getting on base. Fewer teams make the unconventional, but seemingly more intelligent choice to eschew speed in favor of OBP.
The Royals tabbing Alex Gordon as their leadoff man is one example of this, though he does have above average speed (17 steals last season). Gordon though is a great choice because he posted a .370 OBP last season, still some would consider him an odd choice since he isn’t a burner and actually has good pop in his bat with 23 homers in 2011. But what makes less sense: letting a guy with power leadoff or letting a fast guy who is an out machine (like speed demon Royal 2B Chris Getz) leadoff?
While making unconventional choices gives certain managers an icky feeling on the inside, there are more than a few teams that would be better off if the manager got over themselves and started thinking outside the box at the top of the batting order.
Detroit Tigers – The incumbent leadoff man is Austin Jackson who is coming off a season in which he had a .317 OBP while striking out 181 times. Like, zoiks, Scoob! However, Jackson is set to reprise the leadoff role since he is really fast, having stolen 49 bags in the last two seasons. In his defense, he isn’t allergic to taking walks with a career 7.7 BB%, but his struggles to put the bat on the ball make it hard for him to carry a batting average high enough to make his average plate discipline worthwhile. What Detroit could opt to do instead is turn to Alex Avila. Yes, a catcher leading off, I know. Traditionalists are soiling their pants at the mere thought of that, but Avila gets on base, and that is what matters. For his career, Avila has a .362 OBP and 12.4 BB%, pretty great figures for any leadoff man, even if he can’t steal bases. With Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera in the lineup, speed shouldn’t be a major factor since the leadoff batter should have ample opportunity to casually job home after one of those two clubs a homer, provided they are on base, which Avila likely would be while Jackson likely wouldn’t.
Baltimore Orioles – If any team were ripe to try something new at leadoff, it is the Orioles who don’t even have an obvious “old school” leadoff type to turn to. As of right now, it looks like a platoon of Nolan Reimold and Endy Chavez will handle leadoff duties. Reimold has a career OBP of .339 while Chavez checks in at a lowly .313, that just isn’t going to get it done. The best choice for the O’s though should be Nick Markakis, who is currently ticketed for the three-hole, a role he is ill-suited for. Markakis is a consistent hitter for average and has good discipline, with a career OBP of .365 and has never finished a season with an OBP below .347. What Markakis can’t do is hit for big power what with his career ISO of .158. Baltimore needs to quit pretending he is a slugger and let him set the table.
Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers just sold for over $2 billion, but it wasn’t because they make great batting order decisions. They intend to enter the season with speed demon Dee Gordon at leadoff. The problem is Gordon has no command of the strike zone whatsoever, walking in just 3% of his plate appearances last season. But, hey, he’s so fast! You know who is not fast? Catcher A.J. Ellis, he of the .392 OBP in limited action last season. Yes, a catcher again, but Ellis has shown at every level that he can draw loads and loads of walks. If he is too unproven for your taste, James Loney is a lesser option. His career walk rate of 8.1% and OBP of .346 are respectable and he even runs well for a first baseman. Hitting him leadoff is probably a better use of his talent than futilely batting him in the middle of the order in hopes that his power FINALLY develops.
Los Angeles Angels – Apparently OBP is a concept that hasn’t made its way to Southern California yet, as exemplified by the Halos making almost the exact same mistake as the Dodgers by batting their speedy shortstop with an allergy to taking pitches first in the lineup. Aybar is only batting leadoff because he runs so well, and the Angels seem committed to him in that role despite Aybar spending a chunk of last season batting leadoff despite an OBP that was under .300. Just abysmal. The killer part is the Angels have other options. Alberto Callaspo registered a .366 OBP last season and Bobby Abreu is going to try and make a case he should be in the Hall of Fame because of his prolific walk rate. However, Callaspo never gets a shot because he doesn’t run very well, while Abreu continues to be ignored because he used to be able to hit homers back in the day.
Washington Nationals – Ask the Nationals management and they will readily tell you that they know one of their biggest problems is they lack a reliable leadoff hitter. They are right in that assessment, but only because they make bad choices. It looks like their current choice is to have Ian Desmond bat leadoff despite a career OBP of .304, which is egregiously poor. They would be much better off if they turned to first baseman Adam LaRoche. LaRoche is miserably slow, but he works counts with a 9.4 BB% and .337 OBP for his career. Those aren’t great numbers, but they are leaps and bounds better than allowing Ian Desmond to shoot the Nats’ lineup in the foot.
First basemen and catchers batting leadoff? What is this world coming to? The next thing you know cats and dogs will be sleeping together. But you know what else would happen? Teams would have much more efficient lineups. It is an idea so crazy it just might work, even if it drives traditionalists nuts.
