Before being absolutely crushed and annihilated by the Seattle Mariners on May 31 (10 ER in 2.2 innings), San Diego Padres’ starter James Shields had put together a very solid first two months of the season. And since I started writing this just before his undoing in Seattle, I began the post like this:
James Shields is good again.
Well, he wasn’t ever really bad, but last year, at least according to advanced metrics, Shields wasn’t nearly as productive as he was with the Rays and Royals. His 1.1 WAR in 2015 was by far the lowest of his career, despite his career-high strikeout numbers. So far in 2016, though, Shields has recaptured his pitching prowess that allowed him to sign a $75 million deal with the Padres in February 2015.
Entering today, Shields was the owner of a 3.06 ERA and 3.90 FIP and had been worth 0.8 WAR. Obviously, that was altered after the Mariners undoubtedly hung him out to dry. He now has a 4.28 ERA and 4.40 FIP. But as you should know, we can’t read much into one start. That’s why teams will still be interested in trading for Shields, regardless of what FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron thinks.
The Padres are one of the worst teams in baseball, so they really have no need to keep Shields around. He has the chance to be a free agent in 2019 because of a club option, and I doubt San Diego will be ready to legitimately compete before then because of its weak farm system. Plus, Shields’ contract is backloaded. Therefore, the Padres should and most likely will trade him.
But what team is the best fit?
Chicago White Sox
The Padres and White Sox have already engaged in discussions centered around Shields, and for good reason. Even though I believe the Sox need a bat more than another starter, adding Shields and bumping either Miguel Gonzalez (4.54 FIP) or Mat Latos (5.25 FIP) from the rotation would surely help the team’s playoff chances, especially since they’re mired in an embarrassing slump over the last few weeks.
Shields probably won’t require top prospects in return, and that’s good, because the White Sox aren’t exactly stacked with organizational depth. Taking on a backloaded contract would be a risk, obviously, but if they truly believe that this is their window to compete, it might be worth it.
Boston Red Sox
Like their more pale friends, the Boston Red Sox have also talked to the Padres about Shields. The Red Sox are the best offensive team in baseball according to wRC+, but rank 20th in starting pitcher WAR. They just sent Clay Buchholz to the bullpen and could use a capable starter to slide in between Rick Porcello and Joe Kelly.
The Red Sox have the money to take on Shields’ contract, and even if the Padres ask for a lot in return, they have the farm system to meet that request. Adding Shields would make them a favorite to earn a World Series ring.
Chicago Cubs
I haven’t seen anything that has linked the Cubs to Shields, but I think he’d be a good fit for the best team in baseball, especially if they’re asking the Yankees about Nathan Eovaldi. If they’re doing that, they should at least entertain the idea of trading for Shields.
But who would the Cubs kick out of the rotation? Their starting pitching staff is so good it’s crazy scary. Every single one of them looks like an ace. A team can never have enough pitching depth, though, and I’m not sold on John Lackey’s ability to stay healthy this year.
