If we’re being honest, the Pittsburgh Pirates were always long shots to make the Postseason in 2016. In a division that features the powerhouse Chicago Cubs and the always dangerous St. Louis Cardinals, the Pirates’ chances entering the year were slim. Almost everything needed to go perfectly in order for them to make it, but so far, everything has gone horribly wrong. Injuries, lack of pitching success, you name it. Trouble is brewing in Pittsburgh, and as of June 16, the Pirates only have a 14.1% chance of making the playoffs.
So, what’s going on?
Pitching coach Ray Searage’s magic may be running out. His starting staff is ranked 27th in WAR with the likes of even the Brewers and Braves topping them. It also doesn’t help that Pittsburgh’s best pitcher and MLB ace Gerrit Cole is on the disabled list with a strained right triceps. In 12 starts, Cole accumulated 1.6 WAR while posting a 2.77 ERA and 3.06 FIP. He is the only Pirates’ starter with a WAR over 1. Juan Nicasio has been the second-most valuable pitcher in the rotation, but he has a 5.34 ERA. Jon Niese and Jeff Locke have done more harm than good, and Francisco Liriano, surprisingly, has been one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball this season. He has lost most of his command and is giving up a career-high home run rate.
The Pirates desperately need Cole back in their rotation, and although he pitches just once every five days, Pittsburgh can’t succeed without him. Lucky, prospect Jameson Taillon looks like an ace in the making. Through two starts, he has a 1.93 ERA. He hasn’t quite shown the strikeout capability that he did in the minors, but pitching to contact has worked well so far, although the sample is quite small.
Sitting alongside Cole on the disabled list with a broken hand is OBP legend Francisco Cervelli. Not only does the team miss his on-base skills, his work with his pitchers is unparalleled. According to StatCorner, Cervelli has caught the fourth-highest percentage of strikes outside of the strike zone. Pitch framing isn’t calculated into WAR, but if it was, his 0.8 WAR would be much, much higher. Cervelli is out for at least four weeks, and with a rotation that’s already in the dumpster, that’s not ideal.
With the exception of the loss of Cervelli, the offensive side of things is not the Pirates’ problem. They’re fourth in wRC+ and have one of the best outfielding groups in Major League Baseball. When Andrew McCutchen is your least productive outfielder, you know you have a great corps.
But no matter how good their offense is, I don’t think it will matter this season. They’re 11.5 games back of the Cubs, and even though they sit just two back of a Wild Card spot, they just have too many issues to work out. If they want to make the postseason as a wild card, a trade for a starter is a must. That’s clearly the Pirates’ weakest link right now. They might decide against making a move and put all their eggs in Taillon’s and prospect Tyler Glasnow’s basket, but depending on two rookie starters to lead a playoff rotation is risky. And risky is an understatement.
The Pirates should be realistic and start looking toward 2017. It’s just not in the cards this season.
