There is no real known date that is the Super Two cut off point. It’s not like the last day to protect players before the Rule 5 Draft, where there is an actual known moment in time and often many players are cut or protected hours before that moment. Instead, it is in flux from season to season, based on how many rookies have played that season. This is because it affects only the players with less than three years of service time who are in the top 22% in time spent on an MLB roster.
The only difference between a Super Two player and the other 78% is that Super Twos get to go to arbitration a year earlier, giving them the chance to increase from the league minimum, which they are most likely getting at that point, to a ‘fair’ amount as determined by an arbiter. Despite that being the case, every team in baseball seems to be working the system in one way or another and does all they can to keep their potential superstars from coming up early.
Although it’s not a set date, the Super Two deadline is usually about 65 games into the season and last year, there were some obvious cases of service time manipulation. Was it a coincidence that Byron Buxton (MLB’s #1 rated prospect, up on June 14th), Carlos Correa (MLB’s #4 prospect, June 8th), Francisco Lindor (MLB’s #5 prospect, June 14th), and Joey Gallo (MLB’s #9 prospect, June 2nd) all finished their minor league development within two weeks of each other and just beyond the suspected deadline? Of course not.
In order to save a few million dollars, MLB teams around the league regularly hold back top prospects, costing themselves wins (had Lindor and Correa been with their teams the whole season, we almost would have certainly seen a different AL West winner and perhaps a different Wild Card team) and costing their fans an opportunity to see these rookies play. In addition, among other things, the late call up cost Lindor a chance at the Gold Glove by about five days and, while Correa won the Rookie of the Year, it would have been a much more interesting race between the two if another month was added on.
While the Indians are probably guilty of this by going with Cody Anderson over top pitching prospect Mike Clevinger in a recent spot start, they can at least hold the excuse that he hasn’t played enough in AAA yet. This is not true, however, for the Pirates and top pitching prospect Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow made his AAA debut last season by making eight starts with a 2.20 ERA, striking out 48 in 41 innings. He began in AAA this year, as he should have, if for no other reason than to see how he did against some of these teams after the league adjusted to him. The answer is that he adjusted to the league and posted a 1.64 ERA in his first six starts. He’s struck out another 48, although this time he did it in 31 innings and he dropped his walk rate considerably.
The Pirates, on the other hand, have a rotation ERA of 4.16 and, despite 17 wins and sitting in second place, they are already eight games behind the Cubs. Jonathan Niese (5.63 ERA in seven starts) and Jeff Locke (4.68 ERA in six) may be serviceable innings eaters for a mid-level or non-contending team, but the Pirates are (or at least should be) in win now mode. They are in an arms race with Chicago and it would really help if they could use all their available arms.
In the possibly out of this world scenario that the Cubs don’t win 130 games, the Pirates should be their primary competition and how bad will they feel if they lose out on the division title by just two or three games that could have been won by Glasnow? My guess is fairly badly if they lose the one game Wild Card playoff for the third year in a row.
There are certainly others in the same boat. MLB.com’s #2 ranked prospect, Julio Urias of the Dodgers currently holds a 1.50 ERA in AAA through 30 innings with a .176 average against. Aaron Judge of New York is another clear violation as their top outfield prospect remains in AAA despite multiple injuries on the MLB squad.
While a couple teams did buck the trend of waiting for Super Two to pass (by it’s definition, some have to), including Minnesota with Jose Berrios, they waited long enough to ensure that they wouldn’t lose a full year of control in similar fashion to the Cubs with Kris Bryant last season. This type of roster manipulation makes much more sense than focusing so much on Super Two as an entire year of play is at stake rather than a few million dollars.
It would be unfair to not mention the one team who did the right thing and how it has benefited them. The Rangers essentially started the year with Nomar Mazara (MLB’s #15) on the roster and that certainly seems to have been the right idea. The 21 year old outfielder is already hitting .301/.353/.447 with four home runs and 11 RBI. This is not to say that he won’t struggle, all rookies do at some point, but by having him on the roster so early, they reduce the risk that the struggle will still be occurring in September and October, when it matters.
Essentially, this is what happened with Correa last season as he batted just .264/.346/.486 from August on after starting out .296/.344/.542. As he struggled, so did the Astros as they fell behind the Rangers in the divisional race and had to play a one game playoff against the Yankees to earn entry into the ALDS.
The Rangers apparently learned from this as should have the Yankees and Pirates. With as much parity that exists in MLB right now, a win or two in April and May makes a huge difference in September and October and for teams to be holding back players for financial reasons makes no sense. Luckily for fans and players, the union is well aware of the situation and service time in general and Super Two specifically will almost certainly be brought up in the next round of collective bargaining at the end of this season.
With the league becoming younger and more athletic than it has been in decades, rookies are providing more value than they have in a considerable amount of time. Nearly every team in the league would likely benefit by the promotion of a top prospect or two right now and hopefully, the union can convince MLB teams to stop shooting themselves in the foot each April and May in short order. For their own sake.
