If the season ended today, the Miami Marlins — yes, the team with Jeffrey Loria as owner — would make the playoffs for the first time since 2003, or if you prefer, 13 long years ago. The Marlins are currently leading the race for the NL’s second Wild Card, one game back of the Dodgers for the top spot and half a game up on both the Mets and Cardinals. Looking at their lineup as well as their starting rotation, you wouldn’t think this is a team contending for the playoffs, and yet somehow, the Marlins find themselves five games over .500 with the All-Star break fast approaching.
How have they done it?
The Marlins are in the middle of the pack at creating runs and a bit above average in the starting pitching department, but in a season such as this, with very few great teams and a plethora of teams hovering around the .500 mark, that’s all they really need to be. They can get by and probably make the playoffs by being ordinary. With two Wild Card spots, more clubs have a chance to play in October, and some may survive by being just a few games over .500. The Astros made the playoffs with a record of 86-76 a year ago, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Marlins made it with even fewer wins this time around.
FanGraphs’ preseason projections placed the Marlins’ chances of making the postseason at 17.8%. That number has now climbed to 30.4%, with the Mets and Nationals still heavy favorites to represent the NL East. A 13% increase is undoubtedly impressive, but although they are winning the Wild Card, many people, like myself still aren’t sold.
Miami’s offense, particularly Giancarlo Stanton, hasn’t done enough to transform me into a believer. The team’s 96 wRC+ ranks 17th, scarcely better than the Brewers and Athletics, and they have hit only 67 home runs to date; only the Giants and Braves are more home-run illiterate. The Marlins’ offense knows, however, how to get on base, as they run one of the league’s highest BABIPs, but with the powerful Stanton looking lost at the plate, the team has struggled to score runs. This could be a problem as the season goes on, especially if the rotation can’t kick it up an extra notch.
A part of the Marlins’ success has to do with the rotation, in particular Jose Fernandez, who has been the best pitcher on this planet not named Clayton Kershaw. His WAR is already 3.7, and in his last start, he made the World Series favorite Chicago Cubs look silly by striking out 13 of them in seven innings; his sixth outing with 10+ strikeouts this season. Without him, this article wouldn’t exist. Adam Conley has also been a solid arm for Miami. He’s followed up his rookie season nicely and has pitched like a N0. 2 or 3 starter since Opening Day.
As a staff, the Marlins rank in the upper half in WAR, but Fernandez and Conley are largely responsible for that. Tom Koehler has done his job, but he’s nothing more than a back-end starter. Wei-Yin Chen has been the most disappointing, though, as he’s failed miserably so far to live up to the five-year, $80 million contract the Marlins handed him in January. Through 15 starts, Chen’s ERA is 5.00.
It’s true that the Marlins have overachieved expectations thus far, but they have many glaring problems that could cause them to plummet back down to earth. They have a powerless offense, and aside from their No. 1 and 2 starters, their starting rotation is weak. Do I think they can make the playoffs? Absolutely. There are a lot of weak teams in the National League this year, so the Marlins just have to continue to do what they’re doing — be less weak than the rest.
