Indians roll over Royals on their way to first place

Despite it being early in the season and there being over a century of evidence that being first in May does not have much meaning to being first in September, many bought into the hype of the Chicago White Sox early on. With Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, arguably the two best left handed pitchers in baseball, leading their rotation and a few big name hitters to back them up, some bought into their red hot start. On May 9th, they were 23-10 with a season high six game lead over the division.

The bubble then burst as the three through five starters didn’t pitch like Sale, and Jose Abreu didn’t hit like Jose Abreu. In fact, only offseason pick-up Todd Frazier has carried his weight on the offensive side and that wasn’t enough as the Sox lost eight of their next 11 heading into a series with the Cleveland Indians. After winning game one of a doubl header on May 23rd, the White Sox still had a 2.5 game lead, but the Indians won the next three and, moving on to Kansas City, the White Sox lost the next three to fall one back in the division, behind both Cleveland and KC. After winning two against the Mets, Chicago took their third three game losing streak against a Central opponent as the Tigers swept them to begin June.

With the White Sox now in third, many of the anti-SABR baseball analysts had their dream as the Royals were in first. They took over the position on May 29th after sweeping Chicago, then swept the Rays as well to grab a two game lead in the division. They did this largely without the injured Salvador Perez and completely without Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas.

At the same time that the Sox and Royals were being fawned over, the Indians were playing under the radar, using a four game series against the Reds to finally break out beyond .500. After the four game sweep, the Indians lost series to the Red Sox, Orioles, and Rangers, but won against the division, taking three of four from Chicago and, most recently, a four game sweep of Kansas City that saw them outscore the Royals 25-7. It took all four games, but for the moment, it is now Cleveland in first in the AL Central.

While the Indians have struggled against teams in the East and the hapless Twins, they are now 16-3 against the three other teams in the Central, the White Sox, Tigers, and Royals. Of the ten teams the Indians have faced outside of these three, they have winning records against just two, the Reds and Rays, although these have all been in single series aside from the Red Sox and Twins. No matter which way you look at it, the Indians’ success against their Central rivals has directly lead to their current 1.5 game lead in the division.

Whether it will continue is yet to be seen, but there is good reason to believe it could. All the teams in the Central are dealing with performance and injury issues, but the Indians may be in the best position regarding these as Carlos Carrasco has just returned from the DL and the only player out for the season for sure is Marlon Byrd with his 162 game PED suspension.

Looking at the numbers from this season, it isn’t a real surprise that the Indians are in first. While the Royals have dominated the division both defensively and offensively over the past few years, the Indians have currently saved 11 more runs defensively than Kansas City while scoring nine more than the second best offensive team, the Tigers, in one less game. While the White Sox have had the best pitching staff so far, it has essentially been because of their two primary starters, where the Indians have a rotation that is much more evenly distributed.

Looking at the Chicago rotation, Sale and Quintana have combined for a 2.57 ERA through 161.2 innings in 24 starts, but the rest of the rotation has been dreadful, posting a 4.72 ERA over 186.2 innings. The White Sox bullpen has pitched well (3.42 ERA, compared to 3.43 in Cleveland, 2.64 in KC), but the majority of the rotation has been so terrible that it makes each Sale and Quintana start essentially a must win. In fact, this is essentially what has happened with Chicago as the White Sox won Sale’s first nine starts and six of Quintana’s first seven. This was largely what propelled them into first place to start the season.

Since then, Chicago has lost Sale’s last three and Quintana’s last five and without a stopper, there have been extended losing streaks of four, seven, and currently three games. Comparatively, the Indians have a much more well-rounded rotation. Danny Salazar, Corey Kluber, and Carlos Carrasco are the high end, but even number four starter Josh Tomlin has been solid with a 3.54 ERA. Looking at the other two teams, the Tigers have only Jordan Zimmermann who can compare to the Indians top four or the White Sox top two, and the Royals have one of the worst rotations in the AL with only Ian Kennedy supplying regular quality starts.

It still appears that the division will remain close all season, so being in first in early June is not particularly important. Even sitting at the bottom, the Tigers remain just 3.5 games back and have the most powerful, but not the most consistent, offense among the four teams. If the White Sox begin to hit the way they were expected to, they could easily regain the three games lost so far (it will also be interesting to see if James Shields can provide more stability to the back end of the rotation as well).

The main thing now for all three teams will be to keep from falling behind too far. With division heavy schedules, if the White Sox continue getting swept by their divisional rivals, they could quickly fall into an insurmountable hole. Essentially, the same is true for any of these teams, so it is very difficult to pick a discernible favorite at this time. If you like tight pennant races, the AL Central is definitely for you as the teams are already playing like it’s August in June and things only stand to get hotter.